3:45 Ayr
A 16-runner Flat class 6 contest over 6f at Ayr (3:45), on Good going. KTB has scored every runner; the preview below reads the race off those numbers.
How the race shapes up
Two or more habitual front-runners — the pace looks strong and could collapse late, which would favour hold-up horses.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Water Of Leith KTB Selection58/100Modest performer who has won over this trip but steps back up from 5f today.
- 2Head For Freedom54/100Modest performer who has shown some consistency without winning in recent starts.
- 3Pivotal Terms52/100Limited horse who has shown just flashes of ability in a busy 14-run career.
- 4Lord Abama50/100Limited performer who has won five times over this trip but has looked out of sorts for some time and arrives on the back of a string of modest efforts.
- 5Velvet Skies50/100Velvet Skies is a modest performer who has been on the go for a long time and ran respectably when second at Musselburgh last time.
- 6Henery Hawk49/100Henery Hawk is a limited performer who has been placed three times from seven runs at Ayr without winning.
- 7Monastere49/100Limited horse who has shown mixed form this year and arrives off the back of two modest efforts.
- 8Doon The Glen47/100Limited performer who has run eight times at Ayr without winning, though he has been placed once.
- 9Lanarra44/100Limited class performer who has been placed twice from five runs at Ayr without winning.
- 10Macedonian43/100Limited performer who has struggled this year and arrives on the back of two poor efforts.
- 11Sixcor42/100Limited performer who has won twice at this track from 11 runs and also has a win at today's 6f trip.
- 12Ski Angel42/100Ski Angel is a limited performer on balance but has a solid record at Ayr with two wins from 15 runs here.
- 13Baby Rover42/100Limited performer who has shown enough at this track to be competitive, finishing second here on his most recent visit.
- 14Edmond Halley39/100Edmond Halley has shown very little in eight starts and is a limited performer on the balance of his form and ratings.
- 15White Umbrella38/100Limited performer who has shown little spark for a while and finished no better than eighth on his last four starts.
- 16Red Walls35/100Red Walls is a limited performer on the balance of his 50-run career and recent form of 088-38.
The contenders
Water Of Leith KTB Fit 58/100
Modest performer who has won over this trip but steps back up from 5f today. Has course form here at Ayr and handles good ground. Trainer and jockey both have solid records at the track though the yard's strike-rate is modest overall.
Head For Freedom KTB Fit 54/100
Modest performer who has shown some consistency without winning in recent starts. Has placed twice at this trip from seven attempts and holds a solid record on good ground with one win and a placing from five runs. The Easterby yard holds a respectable record at Ayr while Joanna Mason matches that level with her own figures here.
Pivotal Terms KTB Fit 52/100
Limited horse who has shown just flashes of ability in a busy 14-run career. First time headgear is tried as he steps back up to a trip he has won over before, though he has failed to place in three runs on good ground. Trainer and jockey both have solid if unspectacular records at Ayr.
Lord Abama KTB Fit 50/100
Limited performer who has won five times over this trip but has looked out of sorts for some time and arrives on the back of a string of modest efforts. Has run twice at Ayr without placing and is only placed three times from 12 starts on good ground. First-time headgear is now reached for while the yard and jockey both have solid records at the track.
Velvet Skies KTB Fit 50/100
Velvet Skies is a modest performer who has been on the go for a long time and ran respectably when second at Musselburgh last time. He drops back to 6f having won twice at the trip earlier in his career though his recent form suggests he finds life tougher at this level now. The trainer has only had two runners at Ayr so that is too small a sample to judge while the jockey has a modest 7% strike rate from 190 rides here.
The rest of the field
Henery HawkKTB Fit 49/100
Henery Hawk is a limited performer who has been placed three times from seven runs at Ayr without winning.
MonastereKTB Fit 49/100
Limited horse who has shown mixed form this year and arrives off the back of two modest efforts.
Doon The GlenKTB Fit 47/100
Limited performer who has run eight times at Ayr without winning, though he has been placed once.
LanarraKTB Fit 44/100
Limited class performer who has been placed twice from five runs at Ayr without winning.
MacedonianKTB Fit 43/100
Limited performer who has struggled this year and arrives on the back of two poor efforts.
SixcorKTB Fit 42/100
Limited performer who has won twice at this track from 11 runs and also has a win at today's 6f trip.
Ski AngelKTB Fit 42/100
Ski Angel is a limited performer on balance but has a solid record at Ayr with two wins from 15 runs here.
Baby RoverKTB Fit 42/100
Limited performer who has shown enough at this track to be competitive, finishing second here on his most recent visit.
Edmond HalleyKTB Fit 39/100
Edmond Halley has shown very little in eight starts and is a limited performer on the balance of his form and ratings.
White UmbrellaKTB Fit 38/100
Limited performer who has shown little spark for a while and finished no better than eighth on his last four starts.
Red WallsKTB Fit 35/100
Red Walls is a limited performer on the balance of his 50-run career and recent form of 088-38.
KTB verdict
KTB's top-rated runner is Water Of Leith on a Fit Score of 58/100. On our numbers the main dangers are Head For Freedom and Pivotal Terms.
KTB Selection Water Of Leith
This is the narrative read of the 3:45 Ayr. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Ayr racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which runner does KTB rate highest in the 3:45 at Ayr?
Water Of Leith tops the KTB Fit ranking for this race on a score of 58/100.
How many runners are in this race?
16 runners are declared (non-runners excluded).
What is the going for the 3:45 at Ayr?
The going is described as Good.
What distance is this race run over?
It is run over 6f.
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