8:15 Nottingham
This Class 5 fillies' handicap over 6f18y at Nottingham on good to firm ground features a small but competitive field of six. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched at the top, with Come On Eibhlin and Sugar Sugar both rated 59, ahead of Melissa Honey on 52 and Seeing Stars on 50. Overall the numbers point to a race where recent form, trip suitability and the first-time headgear applied to four runners will be key factors in a steadily-run, tactical affair.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape lacks a clear leader and confidence is medium that it will be a steadily-run, tactical race in which being handy pays. With every runner in the field described as held up and producing its effort late, the early fractions are likely to be modest. The key question is whether the bunching in the final two furlongs will allow the best-placed horse on the night to pick up effectively or whether one of the hold-up performers can time their run to best effect from off the pace.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Come On Eibhlin KTB Selection59/100Modest performer who has been consistent enough without winning often, placing twice from eight starts on good to firm.
- 2Sugar Sugar59/100Modest performer who showed improved form when winning a similar race over this trip last time.
- 3Melissa Honey52/100Limited performer who has shown enough consistency this year with form of 431213 and two wins at this trip from ten attempts.
- 4Seeing Stars50/100Modest performer with a mixed record that includes a couple of wins but has been below best on his last two starts.
- 5Thunderous Love48/100Modest performer with a solid record here, having won two of four starts at Nottingham.
- 6Sweet Desire41/100Sweet Desire has shown only modest form in three starts and was well beaten on her only visit to this track.
The contenders
Come On Eibhlin KTB Fit 59/100
Come On Eibhlin is a modest performer who has been consistent enough without winning often, placing twice from eight starts on good to firm. She drops back from 1m2f to a trip she has won over before, which looks a positive, while first-time headgear is now added. The trainer has a solid 19% strike rate at Nottingham from 43 runs, though the jockey's 7% strike rate and 0.38 A/E from 29 rides is less encouraging. Usually held up and producing its effort late, she will be looking to come from off the pace in what is expected to be a steadily-run affair. Her recent form reads 633459 and she carries a 3yo weight from draw 6.
Sugar Sugar KTB Fit 59/100
Sugar Sugar is a modest performer who showed improved form when winning a similar race over this trip last time. She acts on good to firm ground, with one win from two starts and one place, and the yard have a strong recent record at Nottingham with a 24% strike rate and 1.36 A/E from 29 runs. First-time headgear is an unknown but the trainer and jockey combination shows a 15% strike rate and 1.04 A/E from 290 runs. Usually held up and producing its effort late, she will be waiting to pounce in a steadily-run race. Her recent form is 9321 and she lines up as a 3yo from draw 4.
Melissa Honey KTB Fit 52/100
Melissa Honey is a limited performer who has shown enough consistency this year with form of 431213 and two wins at this trip from ten attempts. She handles good to firm ground well with two wins and three places from six runs. The yard has a solid 12% strike rate at Nottingham from 26 runs while this is her first visit to the track. Stepping up in class, she is another who is usually held up and produces its effort late. Recent form figures are 431213 and she runs from draw 3 as a 4yo with the trainer and jockey showing a 22% strike rate and 1.56 A/E from 46 runs.
Seeing Stars KTB Fit 50/100
Seeing Stars is a modest performer with a mixed record that includes a couple of wins but has been below best on his last two starts. First time headgear is now fitted and he has placed once from three runs on good to firm, though he remains winless at today's trip. Trainer William Knight has an 11 percent strike rate at Nottingham from 65 runs while Marco Ghiani has limited experience here but shows a 15% strike rate and 1.03 A/E from 65 rides at the track. Usually held up and producing its effort late with high confidence in that assessment, he will need to improve on recent form of 213438 from draw 5 as a 3yo.
The rest of the field
Thunderous LoveKTB Fit 48/100
Thunderous Love is a modest performer with a solid record here, having won two of four starts at Nottingham. Consistent on good to firm ground with four wins from 12 attempts and has won at this trip from 23 starts. First-time headgear is now applied to a horse whose recent form has been patchy. Usually held up and producing its effort late with high confidence, she lines up from draw 2 as a 5yo.
Sweet DesireKTB Fit 41/100
Sweet Desire has shown only modest form in three starts and was well beaten on her only visit to this track. She drops back to 6f today having failed to make an impact at that trip previously. The yard’s modest 5% strike rate at Nottingham adds little encouragement. Usually held up with limited evidence, she is unproven on good to firm and ran 10th on her sole course start from draw 1 as a 4yo.
KTB verdict
Come On Eibhlin is the KTB Selection. She has been consistent enough without winning often yet drops back from 1m2f to a trip she has won over before, with first-time headgear now fitted, and the trainer's solid record at Nottingham adds to the appeal. The steadily-run nature of the race should suit her hold-up style if she can time her run right. Main dangers are Sugar Sugar, who showed improved form to win over this trip last time and represents a yard in form at the track, and the consistent Melissa Honey who handles the ground and trip well. Seeing Stars cannot be entirely ruled out with the first-time headgear applied.
KTB Selection Come On Eibhlin
This is the narrative read of the 8:15 Nottingham. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Nottingham racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is dropping back in trip from 1m2f?
Come On Eibhlin drops back from 1m2f to a trip she has won over before.
How many runners are wearing first-time headgear?
Four runners are wearing first-time headgear: Come On Eibhlin, Sugar Sugar, Seeing Stars and Thunderous Love.
Which horse has the best recent strike rate at Nottingham among the trainers?
Jack Channon has a 24% strike rate at Nottingham from 29 runs for Sugar Sugar.
Who has the strongest course record in the field?
Thunderous Love has won two of her four starts at Nottingham.
Which horse is stepping up in class?
Melissa Honey is stepping up in class.
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