8:30 Hamilton
This Class 6 handicap over 1m4f15y at Hamilton on good to soft ground features a field of nine limited performers where the KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched at the top. The top four are separated by just eight points on the KTB scale, underlining how little separates them on known ability. With the race lacking an obvious leader it is set to be a steadily-run, tactical affair in which positioning and timing will be key.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape indicates no one is obviously keen to take the lead, pointing to a steadily-run, tactical race in which being handy should pay. Most of the field, including all four principals, are held-up types who produce their effort late, so the race is likely to develop into a test of when to make the move off what should be an even gallop. The key question is which of these late runners can time their challenge best in a race where early positioning may prove advantageous given the lack of pace on.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Satyress51/100Limited performer who showed improved form when winning a 1m4f handicap last time.
- 2Fairydale KTB Selection51/100Limited performer who has shown occasional placed form at this trip but remains winless after ten starts.
- 3Ebony Maw50/100Ebony Maw is a limited performer who has been placed without winning in four of his nine runs at this trip and looks ready to go well again off the back of a re…
- 4Patrick Street43/100Patrick Street is a limited performer who has been in and out of form this year with three wins from his last eight starts.
- 5Mr Withington40/100Mr Withington is a limited performer who has shown little spark in recent runs and finished eighth on his only previous visit to Hamilton.
- 6Storm On Jura39/100Storm On Jura is a limited performer who has shown little spark in 11 runs this year and finished no better than fourth in five attempts here.
- 7Spirit Of Nature39/100Spirit Of Nature is a limited performer on the balance of her five runs to date and has shown ordinary form at best this year.
- 8Game Management37/100Game Management is a limited performer on his overall record and has shown little spark in four starts since joining this yard.
- 9Falaise Blanc36/100Falaise Blanc is a limited performer who has been placed on three of his four starts at Hamilton without winning.
The contenders
Satyress KTB Fit 51/100
Satyress is a limited performer who showed improved form when winning a 1m4f handicap last time. She handles this trip well having won at it on her only attempt but has looked nothing special on good to soft ground. The trainer has a 25% strike rate at Hamilton with an A/E of 1.23 from four runs, though both trainer and jockey have very small samples at the track so their local record offers no real guide. Satyress is held up and usually produces her effort late. Recent form figures read 476-41 and she carries an official rating that reflects her latest success.
Fairydale KTB Fit 51/100
Fairydale is a limited performer who has shown occasional placed form at this trip but remains winless after ten starts. First-time headgear is now fitted and the yard and jockey both have solid records at Hamilton, with the trainer on 14% and the jockey on 15%. Only one run on good to soft ground so far and that produced no placing. Fairydale is held up and usually produces effort late with high confidence in that assessment. Recent form figures read -63842 and this 3-year-old is drawn in stall 1, which could prove useful in a steadily-run race.
Ebony Maw KTB Fit 50/100
Ebony Maw is a limited performer who has been placed without winning in four of his nine runs at this trip and looks ready to go well again off the back of a recent C&D win. He has been placed three times from 13 starts at Hamilton and has shown competitive form on good to soft ground, being placed four times from nine runs on that surface. First-time headgear is now fitted while the yard's modest 5% strike rate here adds some caution. Ebony Maw is held up and usually produces effort late. Recent form figures read 9-7431 and he drops in class for this contest.
Patrick Street KTB Fit 43/100
Patrick Street is a limited performer who has been in and out of form this year with three wins from his last eight starts. He steps up in trip today having already won over this distance once but arrives unproven on good to soft ground. First-time headgear is now applied on his first visit to Hamilton. Patrick Street is held up and usually produces effort late with high confidence in that read. Recent form figures read 509151 and the combination of the step up in trip and the new headgear makes him an interesting contender despite his modest overall profile.
The rest of the field
Mr WithingtonKTB Fit 40/100
Mr Withington is a limited performer who has shown little spark in recent runs and finished eighth on his only previous visit to Hamilton. He drops back in trip today having failed to make the frame in two starts at this distance, while his two runs on good to soft ground also produced no win or place. First-time headgear is now tried and the yard's modest 5% strike rate here adds to the negatives.
Storm On JuraKTB Fit 39/100
Storm On Jura is a limited performer who has shown little spark in 11 runs this year and finished no better than fourth in five attempts here. The step up to 1m4f asks a fresh question while his three runs on good to soft have produced no win or place. Trainer Jim Goldie holds a 10% strike rate from 1663 runs at Hamilton and jockey Lauren Young is operating at 12% from 51 rides at the track.
Spirit Of NatureKTB Fit 39/100
Spirit Of Nature is a limited performer on the balance of her five runs to date and has shown ordinary form at best this year. She has twice run respectably here without threatening to win and now steps up markedly in trip as a fresh question. The yard and jockey both have solid established records at Hamilton.
Game ManagementKTB Fit 37/100
Game Management is a limited performer on his overall record and has shown little spark in four starts since joining this yard. He steps up markedly in trip today having looked one-paced over a mile last time, while his three runs on good to soft ground have produced no win or place. The trainer has only a small sample at Hamilton so that remains unknown while the jockey's modest 10 percent strike rate here is established.
Falaise BlancKTB Fit 36/100
Falaise Blanc is a limited performer who has been placed on three of his four starts at Hamilton without winning. He steps up in trip today having already shown he can be competitive at this distance, and first-time headgear is now fitted. The trainer's modest record here is offset by the jockey's similar strike rate from a small sample.
KTB verdict
Fairydale is the KTB Selection. He has shown occasional placed form at this trip, remains a limited performer but now tries first-time headgear while representing a yard and jockey with solid records at Hamilton. The steadily-run nature of the race should suit his held-up style and the draw in stall 1 could be an advantage. His main dangers are Satyress, who showed improved form when winning over the trip last time, Ebony Maw who comes off a recent C&D success and has course form, and Patrick Street who brings three wins from his last eight starts and also tries headgear.
KTB Selection Fairydale
This is the narrative read of the 8:30 Hamilton. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Hamilton racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is dropping in class?
Ebony Maw is dropping in class.
How many of the principals are wearing first-time headgear?
Three of the principals are wearing first-time headgear: Fairydale, Ebony Maw and Patrick Street.
Which horse has the best recent course form at Hamilton?
Falaise Blanc has been placed on three of four starts at Hamilton, while Ebony Maw has been placed three times from 13 starts here.
How many runners are held up according to their run-style?
All nine runners are described as held up.
Which horse has won over the trip before but is unproven on good to soft?
Patrick Street has won over this distance once but is unproven on good to soft ground.
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