4:45 Beverley
This Class 6 handicap over 1m 100y at Beverley on good to firm ground features a field of ten limited performers, several of whom have shown glimpses of ability without winning of late. The KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top, with Dumfries edging matters on 52, followed closely by Amarachi on 50 and Ten Sixty Six on 49. Course form, going preferences and the first-time headgear on several runners add layers to what looks an open race on paper.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape points to a lone leader with little to pressure it, suggesting an uncontested lead that could prove difficult for closers to overcome. Ten Sixty Six is the only prominent runner with any real early pace, while the remainder of the field, including the selection Dumfries, are held-up types who will look to produce their efforts late. The key question is whether the uncontested leader can dictate matters throughout or if the bunch of late runners can bridge the gap on this stiff finish.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Dumfries KTB Selection52/100Dumfries is a limited performer who has shown ordinary form in recent starts.
- 2Amarachi50/100Limited performer who has shown some consistency this year with a string of placed efforts but has failed to land a win in 13 starts.
- 3Ten Sixty Six49/100Limited performer who has shown some spark at this track, finishing second here on his penultimate start.
- 4Harswell River48/100Limited horse who has been knocking on the door without winning for a while, finishing placed on three of his last six starts.
- 5Saxon Grace48/100Saxon Grace is a limited performer who has shown enough to win a race at this trip on good to firm ground.
- 6Copper And Five46/100Copper And Five is a limited handicapper who has been running to form without winning lately and now tries first-time headgear.
- 7Back From Dubai40/100Limited performer who has won once from four starts at Beverley but is 0-7 on good to firm ground.
- 8Royal Sizzler39/100Limited horse who has shown little in four runs and was beaten over 11 lengths when fourth of seven over this course and trip on his most recent start.
- 9Aurora's Doublesix38/100Limited performer who has been well beaten in all 18 starts and showed no spark when ninth over 6f here last time.
- 10Sweet Cicely31/100Sweet Cicely is a limited performer who has shown very little in 23 starts and arrives here in poor recent form.
The contenders
Dumfries KTB Fit 52/100
Dumfries is a limited performer who has shown ordinary form in recent starts, finishing fifth on his last two outings. He has won twice at Beverley from seven runs and holds a solid record on good to firm ground with three wins from nine attempts. The step up to this trip poses a fresh question though he has won over the distance before. From stall 8 he is likely to be held up and produce his effort late. The Ruth Carr and James Sullivan combination carries a 9% strike rate at the track from 3906 runs with an A/E of 0.85, while the yard's 9% strike rate at Beverley from 426 runs and the jockey's 7% from 583 rides add context. Dropping in class looks a positive.
Amarachi KTB Fit 50/100
Amarachi is a limited performer who has shown some consistency this year with a string of placed efforts but has failed to land a win in 13 starts. She goes well enough on good to firm with a win and a place from just two runs, and has placed three times from five starts at today's trip. First time here and the trainer's small sample at Beverley makes this a neutral rather than positive or negative factor. Usually held up and producing her effort late, she is drawn in stall 3. Joseph Parr and Cieren Fallon combine with a 16% strike rate from 25 runs and an A/E of 1.02, while the jockey has a strong 26% strike rate at Beverley from 43 rides with an A/E of 1.22.
Ten Sixty Six KTB Fit 49/100
Ten Sixty Six is a limited performer who has shown some spark at this track, finishing second here on his penultimate start. Placed once from two runs on good to firm but he has failed to land a blow in three attempts at this trip. The David O'Meara yard has a solid 14% strike rate at Beverley from 679 runs with an A/E of 0.92. From stall 7 he tends to make the running or race on the pace, which could be significant given the lone-leader pace shape. Mark Winn has a 6% strike rate at the track from 67 rides with an A/E of 0.55. The three-year-old brings the most pertinent course form of the principals.
Harswell River KTB Fit 48/100
Harswell River is a limited horse who has been knocking on the door without winning for a while, finishing placed on three of his last six starts. He has shown some ability at this track and on today's good to firm ground, though he is now dropping back in trip after his latest run over 1m2f. First-time headgear is tried as he attempts to break his long losing run from stall 10. The Roger Fell yard posts a 10% strike rate at Beverley from 217 runs with an A/E of 0.84, while the 5lb claimer Cian Horgan has a striking 25% strike rate at the track from just 12 rides and an A/E of 2.98. The yard and jockey combine at 7% from 14 runs with an A/E of 0.65.
Saxon Grace KTB Fit 48/100
Saxon Grace is a limited performer who has shown enough to win a race at this trip on good to firm ground. She has a solid recent win on that surface and her going record reads positively from limited attempts. The first run at Beverley is simply unknown while the trainer's small sample here prevents any firm read on stable form at the track. Usually held up and producing her effort late from stall 2, the three-year-old arrives in form having won last time out. Daragh Bourke and Shane Gray combine at 38% from eight runs, though the yard is 0% from three at Beverley with an A/E of 0 and the jockey is 9% from 219 rides at the track with an A/E of 0.85.
The rest of the field
Copper And FiveKTB Fit 46/100
Copper And Five is a limited handicapper who has been running to form without winning lately and now tries first-time headgear. He has won at this trip and at Beverley itself, with a solid record on good to firm ground. The yard's modest 9% strike rate at the track is offset by the horse's own course connections and high data confidence.
Back From DubaiKTB Fit 40/100
Back From Dubai is a limited performer who has won once from four starts at Beverley but is 0-7 on good to firm ground. He steps up in trip today having last run over 7f and is only 6 from 25 at this distance without a win. Trainer's modest 4% strike rate from 272 runs at the track adds little confidence.
Royal SizzlerKTB Fit 39/100
Royal Sizzler is a limited horse who has shown little in four runs and was beaten over 11 lengths when fourth of seven over this course and trip on his most recent start. He drops back from 1m2f with first-time headgear now applied from stall 1. Trainer has an 11% strike rate from 552 runs at Beverley.
Aurora's DoublesixKTB Fit 38/100
Aurora's Doublesix is a limited performer who has been well beaten in all 18 starts and showed no spark when ninth over 6f here last time. She steps up markedly in trip today while wearing headgear for the first time, both of which pose fresh questions. Trainer's modest 5% strike rate at Beverley from a large sample adds little encouragement.
Sweet CicelyKTB Fit 31/100
Sweet Cicely is a limited performer who has shown very little in 23 starts and arrives here in poor recent form. She has been well beaten in four runs at Beverley and is now 0-3 on good to firm ground, while the trainer’s 2% strike rate at the track from 181 attempts underlines the yard’s struggle here. First-time headgear is tried as she drops back from 2m to a trip she has failed to handle before.
KTB verdict
Dumfries is the KTB Selection. A limited performer who has shown ordinary form of late, he brings two wins from seven runs at Beverley and a strong three wins from nine on good to firm. The drop in class is a plus and his previous success at the trip suggests the new distance should not be a barrier. The main dangers are Amarachi, who has been consistently placed without winning, and Ten Sixty Six, who has shown spark at the track and could take advantage of the lone-leader pace shape from the front.
KTB Selection Dumfries
This is the narrative read of the 4:45 Beverley. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Beverley racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is most likely to take the uncontested lead?
Ten Sixty Six, who tends to make the running or race on the pace.
How many course winners are in the field?
Dumfries has won twice at Beverley, Copper And Five has won here once and Back From Dubai has won here once.
Which runners are wearing headgear for the first time?
Harswell River, Copper And Five, Royal Sizzler, Aurora's Doublesix and Sweet Cicely.
Who has the strongest jockey record at Beverley among the principals?
Cieren Fallon with a 26% strike rate at Beverley from 43 rides and an A/E of 1.22.
Which horse is dropping back in trip from 1m2f?
Harswell River and Royal Sizzler.
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