5:13 Epsom
A compact but competitive Class 4 handicap over 1m 113y at Epsom on good to firm ground brings together four three-year-olds, with the KTB numbers highlighting a clear top three. The principals are headed by Trio on a Fit rating of 62, followed by Chantelle at 54 and Loblolly at 44, while the outsider Mystic Moment sits on 38. Recent form, course experience and yard track records all feed into a race where proven ability around Epsom looks particularly relevant.
How the race shapes up
With no obvious leader in the field the pace shape points to a steadily-run, tactical contest in which being handy should pay dividends. Chantelle is the one most likely to race prominently and could end up dictating or sitting just off a modest gallop. The three held-up runners – Trio, Loblolly and Mystic Moment – will be looking to time their efforts late in what could turn into a sprint for the line off the final bend, posing the key question of whether the prominent runner can hold off the late challengers.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Trio KTB Selection62/100Trio is a fair 3-year-old who has won both starts at Epsom and two of his three runs at today's trip.
- 2Chantelle54/100Chantelle is a fair 3-year-old with solid recent form including a win and two seconds from her four starts.
- 3Loblolly44/100Loblolly is a fair 3-year-old who has shown consistent placed form without winning in recent starts.
- 4Mystic Moment38/100Mystic Moment is a fair 3-year-old who has won once in two runs at Epsom.
The contenders
Trio KTB Fit 62/100
Trio is a fair three-year-old who has already won both starts at Epsom and two of his three runs at today's trip. He has shown strong form on good to firm ground, winning twice from three attempts, and his recent 711 sequence suggests he is in good heart. The combination of course wins and an ability to produce its effort late fits the steadily-run race that is anticipated. Eve Johnson Houghton has an 18% strike rate at the track from 151 runs while Charles Bishop also rides the course well with a 21% strike rate from 94 rides. Trainer and jockey combined show 229/1951 (12%) with an A/E of 0.87. Held up with high confidence in that run-style, Trio holds a KTB Fit rating of 62 and is the clear selection.
Chantelle KTB Fit 54/100
Chantelle is a fair three-year-old with solid recent form that includes a win and two seconds from her four starts. She has already run well over this course and trip when finishing second here last time, though she is trying the distance again today after one unsuccessful attempt. Her prominent run-style, racing handily on or close to the lead with medium confidence, looks ideally suited to the anticipated tactical pace. Sir Mark Prescott has a 25% strike rate at Epsom from 112 runs, though the jockey Jack Gilligan is yet to score at the track from four rides. The yard's record when teaming up with the jockey reads 7/44 (16%) with an A/E of 0.77. Chantelle carries a KTB Fit rating of 54 and is the most obvious danger.
Loblolly KTB Fit 44/100
Loblolly is a fair three-year-old who has shown consistent placed form without winning in recent starts. He steps up in trip for the first time while making his debut at Epsom in first-time headgear and drops in class. The yard has an 8% strike rate at the track from 51 runs and he has failed to place in four runs on good to firm ground. David Probert has a 13% strike rate at Epsom from 249 rides and the trainer-jockey partnership shows 4/38 (11%) with an A/E of 0.86. Usually held up and producing its effort late with medium confidence in that run-style, Loblolly is rated 44 on KTB Fit and could improve for the new headgear if the race falls right.
The rest of the field
Mystic MomentKTB Fit 38/100
Mystic Moment is a fair three-year-old who has won once in two runs at Epsom. He has been out of form this year with three modest efforts from his last three starts and steps up in trip today for the first time. The trainer has a 0% strike rate from six runs at the track while the jockey has limited experience here. Rated 38 on KTB Fit and usually held up, he makes up the four-runner field.
KTB verdict
Trio stands out as the KTB Selection with a Fit rating of 62 and the strongest combination of course form, trip effectiveness and current wellbeing. Having won both previous visits to Epsom and showing his best on good to firm, he is well placed to produce his effort late in a steadily-run affair. Chantelle is the most obvious danger given her prominent style and recent placed effort over the course and distance, while Loblolly could step up in first-time headgear dropping in class. Mystic Moment looks up against it on recent form.
KTB Selection Trio
This is the narrative read of the 5:13 Epsom. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Epsom racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has won both previous starts at Epsom?
Trio has won both starts at Epsom.
How many wins has the top-rated horse achieved on good to firm ground?
Trio has two wins from three runs on good to firm.
Which runner is making its debut at Epsom in first-time headgear while stepping up in trip?
Loblolly is making its debut at Epsom in first-time headgear while stepping up in trip.
What is the trainer's strike rate at Epsom for the yard of the second principal?
Sir Mark Prescott has a 25% strike rate at Epsom from 112 runs.
Which horse has course-and-distance experience but is yet to win at the trip?
Chantelle has already run well over this course and trip when second here last time, though she is trying the distance again today after one unsuccessful attempt.
18+. Analysis and entertainment only — no guarantee of profit. KTB race previews are published for interest and are not betting advice. Only ever stake what you can comfortably afford to lose, and set your own limits. Free, confidential help: the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133 (GamCare.org.uk); in Ireland, the GamblingCare.ie helpline on 1800 936 725. Self-exclude at any time via GAMSTOP.
More from Kickthebookies