3:32 Perth
This Class 5 handicap hurdle over 2m7f207y at Perth on good ground features an eleven-runner field where the KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top, with five principals rated between 70 and 62. The race looks competitive on paper, with several runners in decent recent form and course records that cannot be ignored. Overall the KTB numbers suggest a strong test where proven stamina, Perth form and the ability to handle a strong pace will be key.
How the race shapes up
A strong pace is likely given two or more habitual front-runners are declared, with October Hill and Burgundy Man both tending to make the running or race prominently. This could set the race up for hold-up performers to come through late as the leaders potentially tire. The key question is whether the prominent runners can dictate terms and stay on, or if the race will collapse in the closing stages to suit those ridden with patience from the rear.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1October Hill KTB Selection70/100Useful performer who arrives in solid form after a string of placed efforts including a recent second.
- 2Drumlee Myth68/100Fair performer who showed improved form when winning at this track last time.
- 3Just Oot65/100Just Oot is a useful performer on the balance of his ratings and race history.
- 4Dalileo63/100Useful performer who has won four times at Perth from 24 starts and also has a solid record at this trip with four wins from 22 runs.
- 5Dolly Dior62/100Smart performer who has already shown strong course connections here with a second and a fourth from three runs at Perth.
- 6Broken Ice60/100Useful performer who won on his only previous visit to Perth and has solid placed form on good ground.
- 7Ceol Draiochta59/100Useful performer on his day but has been out of sorts this year and his recent form figures of 0/P-4P tell their own story.
- 8Quinnfinity48/100Fair performer who has struggled since a promising debut, pulling up on both subsequent starts including twice here.
- 9Burgundy Man43/100Burgundy Man is a fair handicapper who has won both here and at today's trip, though his recent form of 56-P9P is poor.
- 10Fortunes Dawn42/100Fortunes Dawn is a fair performer on the balance of his form and has shown some ability when finishing third on his only run at Perth.
- 11Magic Gloves39/100Magic Gloves is a fair performer on the balance of his ratings and race history yet has failed to land a blow in two runs at Perth.
The contenders
October Hill KTB Fit 70/100
October Hill arrives in solid form having shown consistent placed efforts including a recent second, and he shaped as a useful performer on balance. The six-year-old steps up in trip today, which poses a fresh question, while first-time headgear is another unknown factor. David Pipe boasts a 30% strike rate at Perth from 67 runs with an A/E of 1.15, and the booking of in-form conditional Rian Corcoran, who has a 40% strike rate at the track from just five rides with an A/E of 1.63, adds further interest. The trainer and jockey combined record stands at 21/82 with a 26% strike rate and A/E of 1.33. He has been placed on five of eight starts on good ground though without a win at the surface, and he tends to make the running or race on the pace.
Drumlee Myth KTB Fit 68/100
Drumlee Myth showed improved form when winning at this track last time and can be considered a fair performer on that evidence. He has been placed on two of his three starts at Perth and acts on good ground with one win from four starts and three places. The seven-year-old steps up in trip which is an unknown, yet the yard has an 18% strike rate at Perth with an A/E of 1.62 from 17 runs while the jockey, Mr N McParlan, holds a 17% strike rate here with an A/E of 1.22 from 42 rides. Their combined record is 16/255 with a 6% strike rate and A/E of 0.94. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he looks suited by the likely strong pace that could collapse.
Just Oot KTB Fit 65/100
Just Oot is a useful performer on the balance of his ratings and race history, with placed efforts that underline his competitiveness. He steps up markedly in trip today having last run over 2m, which asks a fresh question of stamina. The trainer has a solid 12% strike rate at Perth from 114 runs with an A/E of 1.31, while the jockey operates at a 9% strike rate from 115 rides with an A/E of 0.97. Their combined record stands at 33/249 with a 13% strike rate and A/E of 1.17. He has been placed once from two starts on good ground without a win, and he is usually held up though with limited evidence to confirm the run-style.
Dalileo KTB Fit 63/100
Dalileo is a useful performer who has won four times at Perth from 24 starts and also possesses a solid record at this trip with four wins from 22 runs. His recent form of 4-7311 includes two wins in the last three outings, and he handles good ground well with four successes from 29 starts and fifteen places. Dropping in class, the eleven-year-old is usually held up and produces his effort late with high confidence in that assessment. The trainer has a 10% strike rate at Perth from 479 runs with an A/E of 0.97, while the jockey sits on a 7% strike rate from 245 rides with an A/E of 0.82. Their combined record is 15/204 with a 7% strike rate and A/E of 0.76.
Dolly Dior KTB Fit 62/100
Dolly Dior is a smart performer who has already shown strong course connections here with a second and a fourth from three runs at Perth. She arrives in decent form after a win and a second on her last two starts, and the step up in trip looks an interesting new question rather than a negative. Dropping in class, the five-year-old is usually held up and produces her effort late with medium confidence. The trainer has a 14% strike rate at Perth with an A/E of 0.93 from 83 runs, while Brian Hughes holds a 15% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 0.88 from 886 rides. Their combined record stands at 20/87 with a 23% strike rate and A/E of 1.17. She has one win from five starts on good ground with two places.
The rest of the field
Broken IceKTB Fit 60/100
Broken Ice won on his only previous visit to Perth and has solid placed form on good ground with two wins from seventeen starts and six places. He steps up in trip today having last run over 2m2f yet has already won over this distance, and first-time headgear is now tried. The trainer holds a 20% strike rate at the track from 45 runs with an A/E of 0.9.
Ceol DraiochtaKTB Fit 59/100
Ceol Draiochta is a useful performer on his day but has been out of sorts this year, with recent form figures of 0/P-4P telling their own story. He has already been tried over this trip range without success and showed little when pulled up here over hurdles in May. Dropping in class, the yard has a solid 16% strike rate at Perth from 32 runs though the jockey is on 6% from 266 rides.
QuinnfinityKTB Fit 48/100
Quinnfinity has struggled since a promising debut, pulling up on both subsequent starts including twice here. He steps up markedly in trip today while wearing first-time headgear, which asks a fresh question. Dropping in class, the trainer's modest 6% strike rate at Perth from 374 runs contrasts with the jockey's strong 22% record at the track from 18 rides.
Burgundy ManKTB Fit 43/100
Burgundy Man is a fair handicapper who has won both here and at today's trip, though his recent form of 56-P9P is poor. He has placed six times from sixteen starts on good ground and first-time headgear is now tried. The trainer's 6% strike rate from 374 runs at Perth and the jockey's 7% from 114 rides suggest limited upside.
Fortunes DawnKTB Fit 42/100
Fortunes Dawn is a fair performer on the balance of his form and has shown some ability when finishing third on his only run at Perth. He steps up markedly in trip today having last raced over 2m4f, which asks a fresh question. Dropping in class, the yard has a modest 4% strike-rate at the track from 117 runs while the jockey fares slightly better with a 10% record from 92 rides here.
Magic GlovesKTB Fit 39/100
Magic Gloves is a fair performer on the balance of his ratings and race history yet has failed to land a blow in two runs at Perth. The yard's modest 8% strike rate here from 95 attempts and the jockey's 9% from 373 rides add little encouragement. First-time headgear accompanies a step up to an untested 2m7f trip today.
KTB verdict
October Hill looks the pick after arriving in solid form with a string of placed efforts capped by a recent second, and the KTB Selection is backed by David Pipe's strong 30% strike rate at Perth along with the booking of in-form conditional Rian Corcoran. The first-time headgear and step up in trip are unknowns but his prominent run-style could see him dictate a strong pace that may ultimately collapse. Main dangers include Drumlee Myth, who showed improved form when winning here last time and is well suited by the hold-up style in a race with plenty of pace, while Dalileo cannot be dismissed given his four course wins at Perth and recent double success. Just Oot and Dolly Dior are also respected for their ability and connections at the track.
KTB Selection October Hill
This is the narrative read of the 3:32 Perth. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Perth racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the strongest Perth trainer/jockey combination at the track?
October Hill, with trainer David Pipe on 30% strike rate at Perth (A/E 1.15) and jockey Rian Corcoran on 40% (A/E 1.63).
How many horses in the field are stepping up in trip?
Six horses are stepping up in trip: October Hill, Drumlee Myth, Just Oot, Broken Ice, Quinnfinity and Fortunes Dawn.
Who are the two habitual front-runners likely to ensure a strong pace?
October Hill and Burgundy Man both tend to make the running or race on the pace.
Which runner has won the most times at Perth?
Dalileo has won four times at Perth from 24 starts.
Which horse is the only one to have won over the exact race distance before?
Broken Ice has already won over this distance.
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About the A/E figures in this preview. They are the data supplier’s: the winners a trainer or jockey had, divided by the winners the starting prices implied, over the runs in that record. Above 1.0 means more wins than the prices suggested. It is not KTB’s fair A/E, which allows for the bookmakers’ margin and the favourite–longshot bias, and the two are not comparable.
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