4:05 Perth
The 4:05 Perth is a Class 2 GBB handicap hurdle over 2m0f47y on good ground, featuring an eight-runner field where the KTB Fit Scores identify four clear principals separated from the rest. The Last Cloud tops the ratings on 71 and is the KTB Selection, with Squeezebox, Filibustering and Medieval Gold closely grouped behind on 65, 64 and 59 respectively. The remainder sit between 54 and 48, suggesting a race in which the top four hold the strongest claims on the supplied figures.
How the race shapes up
With a strong pace confidently predicted and at least two habitual front-runners present, the early gallop is likely to be genuine. Scriabin and Fidendum both tend to make the running or race prominently, which should ensure the race unfolds at a searching clip and sets up a test of stamina late on. This shape is expected to favour the hold-up horses, several of which are among the leading contenders, and the key question is which of the patient runners can pick up the pieces when the pace collapses in the closing stages.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1The Last Cloud KTB Selection71/100High-class performer who has won all three starts at Perth and looks well suited by the return to this track.
- 2Squeezebox65/100Smart performer who arrives in decent form having won two of his last three starts.
- 3Filibustering64/100High-class performer with a solid recent record of 851-11 and two wins already this year.
- 4Medieval Gold59/100Medieval Gold is a smart performer with solid course connections, having won on his only previous run here.
- 5Pure Gold54/100Pure Gold is a useful performer who has won at this track and at today's trip.
- 6Scriabin50/100Smart performer who has won over this trip and at this track.
- 7Fidendum49/100Smart performer with a solid recent record of two wins from three starts.
- 8Nap Hand48/100Smart performer who arrives in solid form after two placed efforts this season.
The contenders
The Last Cloud KTB Fit 71/100
The Last Cloud is a high-class performer who has won all three starts at Perth and looks well suited by the return to this track. Three wins from four runs at today's trip add to the positives while the drop back from 2m2f is not a concern given the earlier success at this distance. He goes well on good ground with three wins from four starts. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he is ideally positioned to benefit from the strong pace that is anticipated. The Patrick Neville yard has a 14% strike rate at Perth from 83 runs with an A/E of 0.93, while Brian Hughes has a 15% strike rate from 886 rides here with an A/E of 0.88. Dropping in class from a recent run, his course record of three wins from three starts makes him the KTB Selection.
Squeezebox KTB Fit 65/100
Squeezebox is a smart performer who arrives in decent form having won two of his last three starts. He has a solid record at today's trip and has won three times on good ground from eight attempts. First-time headgear is now fitted on his first run at Perth. Usually held up and producing his effort late with high confidence, he should be suited by the anticipated strong pace. The Tom Lacey yard posts a 25% strike rate at Perth from 12 runs with an A/E of 1.06, while Stan Sheppard has a 25% strike rate from four rides here with an A/E of 1.02. His recent form of 151-13 underlines his current wellbeing.
Filibustering KTB Fit 64/100
Filibustering is a high-class performer with a solid recent record of 851-11 and two wins already this year. He drops back to a trip he has won over twice from nine attempts and boasts three wins from eight starts on good ground. First-time headgear is the main unknown and both trainer and jockey have only tiny samples at Perth. Usually held up and producing his effort late with medium confidence, he is another who should relish the strong pace on offer. The Harry Derham yard is 0% from one Perth runner with an A/E of 0, while Paul O'Brien has a 25% strike rate from four rides here with an A/E of 1.
Medieval Gold KTB Fit 59/100
Medieval Gold is a smart performer with solid course connections, having won on his only previous run here. He has been competitive on good ground without winning and is dropping back in trip to a distance at which he has already scored once from four attempts. First-time headgear is now added while the yard and jockey both hold established records at Perth. Usually held up and producing his effort late with medium confidence, he should be well suited by the race shape. The Patrick Neville stable has a 14% strike rate at Perth from 83 runs with an A/E of 0.93, while Derek Fox has a 9% strike rate from 373 rides here with an A/E of 0.75. Stepping up in class from his recent efforts.
The rest of the field
Pure GoldKTB Fit 54/100
Pure Gold is a useful performer who has won at this track and at today's trip. He has been consistent of late with three placed efforts from his last four starts and holds solid course connections. The drop back from 2m4f is an interesting move while his trainer and jockey both operate at a 10% strike rate here. Usually held up with high confidence, he steps up in class.
ScriabinKTB Fit 50/100
Scriabin is a smart performer who has won over this trip and at this track. Consistent this year with two wins from his last four starts yet his yard and rider both show modest 8% strike rates here. First-time headgear is another unknown on ground he handles. A habitual front-runner with high confidence, he is likely to set the strong pace.
FidendumKTB Fit 49/100
Fidendum is a smart performer with a solid recent record of two wins from three starts. He handles good ground well and has already won over today's trip. First-time headgear is the unknown and the trainer's small Perth sample adds little guidance. A front-runner with high confidence, he will help ensure the early gallop is strong.
Nap HandKTB Fit 48/100
Nap Hand is a smart performer who arrives in solid form after two placed efforts this season. He steps up in trip today having won over this distance in the past though his recent efforts have been over much shorter. The trainer has a modest 0% strike-rate from five Perth runners while the jockey has only one ride at the track. Usually held up with high confidence.
KTB verdict
The Last Cloud stands out as the KTB Selection on a KTB Fit of 71. He has won all three starts at Perth, boasts three wins from four runs at today's trip, and his record of three wins from four starts on good ground adds further strength to his claims. Ideally suited by the strong pace that is likely to unfold, his hold-up style should see him arriving on the scene late when it matters. The main dangers are Squeezebox and Filibustering, both smart performers in good heart who are also hold-up types and first-time headgear wearers, with Medieval Gold completing the quartet of principals who could all feature if the race develops as expected.
KTB Selection The Last Cloud
This is the narrative read of the 4:05 Perth. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Perth racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has won all three of its previous starts at Perth?
The Last Cloud
How many front-runners are in the field and what does this mean for the pace?
Two or more habitual front-runners, which makes a strong pace likely and could favour hold-up horses late on
Which three horses in the field are wearing first-time headgear?
Squeezebox, Filibustering and Medieval Gold
Which horse is dropping in class and has three wins from four starts on good ground?
The Last Cloud
Which pair of horses are the most likely to set the early pace?
Scriabin and Fidendum
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