6:45 Pontefract
This Class 3 handicap over six furlongs at Pontefract features a field of nine with the going good to firm. The KTB Fit ratings identify Rare Change as the top-rated on 67, narrowly ahead of Alfa Whiteburd and Veblen Good on 62, with The Good Biscuit next on 54. Overall the numbers point to a competitive race in which course form, the strong pace anticipated and the first-time headgear on the selection could prove decisive.
How the race shapes up
With two or more habitual front-runners present the pace shape is strong and the confidence level is high that it will be genuinely tested. Alfa Whiteburd and Russet Gold are both inclined to go forward while several others, including the selection Rare Change, Veblen Good and The Good Biscuit, are habitual hold-up performers. This sets up the likelihood of a late collapse that would play into the hands of those racing off the pace, making the key question whether any horse can quicken effectively off a strong gallop in the straight.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Rare Change KTB Selection67/100Rare Change is a fair performer who has won both starts over this trip and showed his best form when taking this track last time out.
- 2Alfa Whiteburd62/100Alfa Whiteburd is a fair performer who arrives in excellent order having won his last three starts.
- 3Veblen Good62/100Fair performer who won over this trip at Pontefract last season and has placed on all four starts on good to firm.
- 4The Good Biscuit54/100The Good Biscuit is a fair performer who has won three times at Pontefract from 11 runs and looks at home on good to firm ground with four wins from nine starts…
- 5Russet Gold49/100Russet Gold is a fair performer who has won once from three runs at Pontefract and arrives in reasonable form after a string of consistent efforts.
- 6Havana Rum47/100Havana Rum is a fair handicapper who has won at this trip and at Pontefract.
- 7Yes I'm Mali47/100Fair performer who has been consistent this year without winning.
- 8Fiscal Policy45/100Fiscal Policy is a modest performer who has won both previous starts at Pontefract and also has a solid record at this trip with eight wins from 43 starts.
- 9Mondammej42/100Mondammej is a modest performer who has been largely out of form this year with a string of modest efforts.
The contenders
Rare Change KTB Fit 67/100
Rare Change is a fair performer who has won both starts over this trip and showed his best form when taking this track last time out. He handles good to firm ground and the first-time headgear is a positive given his recent inconsistency. The drop back from 7f asks a fresh question but his record suggests it should suit. Trainer Richard Hughes has a 20% strike rate at Pontefract with an A/E of 1.14 from 15 runs, while jockey Cieren Fallon boasts a 42% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 1.67 from 12 rides. The combination of the yard's local record, Fallon's figures at the course and the hold-up run style look well suited to the expected strong pace. Overall the KTB Fit of 67 and the course win from one visit mark him out as the selection.
Alfa Whiteburd KTB Fit 62/100
Alfa Whiteburd is a fair performer who arrives in excellent order having won his last three starts. He has an excellent record at Pontefract with two wins from two runs and also holds a solid record on good to firm ground. The trainer operates at a 13% strike rate here from 77 runs while the jockey has shown strong recent form at the track. As a confirmed front-runner he is likely to set or help force the strong pace that the shape suggests, which could leave him vulnerable to late challengers if the race collapses. Stepping up in class is the main concern but the course-and-distance profile remains a major asset. With a KTB Fit of 62 he is firmly in the mix.
Veblen Good KTB Fit 62/100
Veblen Good is a fair performer who won over this trip at Pontefract last season and has placed on all four starts on good to firm. Recent form has been patchy with a win and three placed efforts mixed in with some lesser runs, though the course record and draw are both in his favour. O'Meara has a solid 13 per cent strike rate here while Tudhope rides. Dropping in class should help and the hold-up run style is ideally suited to the strong pace that is forecast. The placed record on good to firm underlines his effectiveness under these conditions. Rated 62 on the KTB Fit scale, he is one of the main dangers from stall three.
The Good Biscuit KTB Fit 54/100
The Good Biscuit is a fair performer who has won three times at Pontefract from 11 runs and looks at home on good to firm ground with four wins from nine starts. He has also won six times at this trip from 30 attempts and arrives in decent form after two recent victories. The yard's modest 10% strike rate from 302 runs at the track is a slight negative. Usually held up, he is another who should benefit if the strong pace materialises as expected. Stepping up in class adds a layer of difficulty but the course record and recent wins provide plenty of encouragement. His KTB Fit of 54 keeps him in the conversation among the principals.
The rest of the field
Russet GoldKTB Fit 49/100
Russet Gold is a fair performer who has won once from three runs at Pontefract and arrives in reasonable form after a string of consistent efforts. He acts on good to firm but his record on this surface is modest with just one win from ten attempts. The trip looks about right having placed five times from 22 starts at six furlongs though he has never won at the distance. Another who will go forward, he could help set the strong pace.
Havana RumKTB Fit 47/100
Havana Rum is a fair handicapper who has won at this trip and at Pontefract. He has been consistent enough this year without winning, placing in three of his last six starts, and the draw in stall one should help on this track. The Fahey yard has a modest 14% strike-rate here while Tindall is yet to trouble the judge from limited rides at the course. A hold-up performer, he drops in class.
Yes I'm MaliKTB Fit 47/100
Yes I'm Mali is a fair performer who has been consistent this year without winning. Has won at this trip but only modest form on good to firm and was well held on his one previous run here. First-time headgear is now tried. He is another hold-up type who drops in class.
Fiscal PolicyKTB Fit 45/100
Fiscal Policy is a modest performer who has won both previous starts at Pontefract and also has a solid record at this trip with eight wins from 43 starts. He has shown mixed form this year with a recent string of lesser efforts after two placed runs, and his record on good to firm is only one win from 12 starts though he has placed another eight times. The yard has a 10% strike rate from 302 runs at the track. Typically settles in midfield.
MondammejKTB Fit 42/100
Mondammej is a modest performer who has been largely out of form this year with a string of modest efforts. He steps up from 5f to a trip he has won over before though his record at 6f is nothing to shout about and he has only managed two placed efforts from eight runs on good to firm. The yard has a modest 5% strike rate at Pontefract from 41 runs. A hold-up runner.
KTB verdict
Rare Change looks the pick on KTB ratings and the selection. He has already won over course and distance, boasts a strong record on good to firm and the first-time headgear could sharpen him up after some inconsistency. His hold-up style is perfectly placed for the strong pace that should unfold, and the Hughes-Fallon combination has excellent figures at Pontefract. Main dangers are Alfa Whiteburd, who brings a hat-trick and a fine record at the track, and Veblen Good, whose course win, good-to-firm placed form and favourable draw make him a serious threat from the front end of the market.
KTB Selection Rare Change
This is the narrative read of the 6:45 Pontefract. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Pontefract racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is stepping up in class after three straight wins?
Alfa Whiteburd
Which runners are likely to contest the strong pace from the front?
Alfa Whiteburd and Russet Gold
How many wins has Rare Change recorded over six furlongs?
Two
Which horse is wearing first-time headgear besides the selection?
Yes I'm Mali
Which trainer has the highest strike rate at Pontefract among those with runners in this race?
Richard Hughes with 20%
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