Horse profile
Rare Change (IRE)
by Mehmas (IRE) out of Plus Ca Change (IRE) (Invincible Spirit)
25 runs · 14 courses · from May 2024
As at 18 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: GB, Ireland & France · 2005–present, updated daily
4 wins · 4 courses
Ran 23 days ago · 13th of 14
Last raced off OR 80
KTB Profile
Typically ridden with patience — held up in 6 of 6 analysed runs — Rare Change (IRE) is 4 from 25. All 4 wins have come over 6f – 7f. Last raced off 80, 11lb below the career-high mark.
Based on 25 archived runs · run-style from 6 commented runs · updated 18 Oct 2026
KTB at a glance
Typically held up
OR ↓ 11lb off peak
- 4–25Wins / Runs
- 16%Strike rate
- 7 (28%)Placed
- +15.00£1 level staken=25 at SP
- 1.68Fair A/E n=25 · 1.41 incl. margin
- 91Highest OR
- 36dAvg between runs
A/E compares actual wins with what starting prices implied. "Fair" strips the bookmaker margin from the expectation, so favourites and longshots are judged on the same footing — figures near 1.00 mean the market priced this horse about right.
Official rating80↓ 11lb off peak
80
72–91
KTB Speed and Rating
KTB Speed
Best recent Speed 96
How fast the horse ran, as points against the day-corrected standard time for its course and distance: 100 is the median GB Class 4 handicap winner on that code; one point is 0.1% of the standard time. A, B or C is how much the day's card could tell us, not how good the run was. What this means →
Flat
| Going | Runs | Best | Median | Since 18 Oct 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Good | 10 | 118A | 83 | 2 · 91 / 80.5 |
| Good to Firm | 6 | 104C | 88.5 | 2 · 104 / 100 |
| Soft | 4 | 86B | 75.5 | 3 · 86 / 65 |
| Standard (AW) | 3 | 98C | 83 | 1 · — |
| Good to Soft | 2 | 86C | 81 | 1 · — |
| Distance | Runs | Best | Median | Since 18 Oct 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6f – 7f | 24 | 118A | 83 | 9 · 104 / 86 |
| Under 6f | 1 | — | — | — |
KTB Speed v1 · batch 15 Sep 2026 · GB & Irish racing only · 25 figures from 25 runs · as at 3 Oct 2026 · a record, not a forecast
Both figures are KTB's own, computed from the archive; no vendor rating enters either. Every run's figure is on its form line below with its grade. Grades measure how much the archive could see, never the merit of the run.
Run style from 6 analysed runs
- Held up 6 (100%) · 3 wins
Pedigree intelligence
Sire
Progeny in our archive have won 11.6% of 8,086 runs since Jan 2008 (746 horses).
| Going | Runs | Wins | SR | vs sire | This horse |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Firm | 19 | 2 | 10.5% | −1.1 | — |
| Good to Firm | 1,457 | 179 | 12.3% | +0.7 | 2 from 6 |
| Good | 1,957 | 221 | 11.3% | −0.3 | 1 from 10 |
| Good to Soft | 749 | 84 | 11.2% | −0.4 | 0 from 2 |
| Soft | 912 | 96 | 10.5% | −1.1 | 1 from 4 |
| Heavy | 208 | 22 | 10.6% | −1 | — |
| Standard (AW) | 2,784 | 337 | 12.1% | +0.5 | 0 from 3 |
| Distance (all codes) | Runs | Wins | SR | vs sire | This horse |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 6f | 2,085 | 267 | 12.8% | +1.2 | 0 from 1 |
| 6f – 7f | 4,250 | 475 | 11.2% | −0.4 | 4 from 24 |
| 1m – 1m1f | 1,353 | 156 | 11.5% | −0.1 | — |
| 1m2f – 1m4f | 361 | 42 | 11.6% | 0 | — |
| 1m5f – 2m | 30 | 1 | 3.3% | −8.3 | — |
| 2m1f – 2m4f | 6 | 0 | 0% | −11.6 | — |
| Over 3m | 1 | 0 | 0% | −11.6 | — |
Flat and jumps together (all codes) · since Jan 2008 · as at 18 Oct 2026 · rows under 30 runs muted · win % is the measure, a record not a forecast
Dam
Plus Ca Change (IRE) (Invincible Spirit)
3 siblings in the archive, 3 winners — best of them Mistrix (IRE) (1 win).
The wins came over 5f–7f; the highest grade won is Class 3 (Mistrix (IRE)).
| Produce | Runs | Wins | Win trips | Best grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mistrix (IRE) | 13 | 1 | 7f | Class 3 |
| Alphonse Karr (IRE) | 17 | 1 | 6f | Class 5 |
| Lady Beano (IRE) | 3 | 1 | 5f | Class 5 |
Record by conditions
| Going | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Good | 10 | 1 | 10% | −5.50 |
| Good to Firm | 6 | 2 | 33% | +12.50 |
| Soft | 4 | 1 | 25% | +13.00 |
| Standard (AW) | 3 | 0 | 0% | −3.00 |
| Good to Soft | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Class | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Class 4 | 10 | 2 | 20% | +14.50 |
| Class 2 | 7 | 0 | 0% | −7.00 |
| Class 3 | 7 | 2 | 29% | +8.50 |
| Class 5 | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Course | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goodwood | 7 | 1 | 14% | +10.00 |
| Pontefract | 3 | 1 | 33% | +1.50 |
| York | 3 | 1 | 33% | +8.00 |
| Newbury | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Salisbury | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Chester | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Lingfield (AW) | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Newmarket | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Ascot | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Newcastle (AW) | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Windsor | 1 | 1 | 100% | +6.50 |
| Kempton (AW) | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Doncaster | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Haydock | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Distance | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6f – 7f | 24 | 4 | 17% | +16.00 |
| Under 6f | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Jockey | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Finley Marsh | 11 | 2 | 18% | +10.50 |
| Hector Crouch | 2 | 2 | 100% | +16.50 |
| Oisin Murphy | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Jack Callan | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Gina Mangan | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Cieren Fallon | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Rossa Ryan | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Billy Loughnane | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Sean D Bowen | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Warren Fentiman | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Ryan Moore | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Benoit De La Sayette | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| William Buick | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Headgear | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| None | 17 | 3 | 18% | +6.00 |
| Cheekpieces | 7 | 1 | 14% | +10.00 |
| Blinkers | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Season | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8 | 1 | 13% | +9.00 |
| 2025 | 9 | 3 | 33% | +14.00 |
| 2024 | 8 | 0 | 0% | −8.00 |
Splits include every sample, however small — muted rows are under 3 runs. A one-from-one record is a fact, not a trend: read the Runs column before the strike rate.
Form
| Date | Course | Race | Pos | Btn | Wgt | OR | Spd | KTB | Jockey | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Sep 26+13d | Pontefract | Explore Shared Racehorse Ownership At inthepaddock.co.uk Handicap Stakes Sluggish start - stayed at the rear throughout - well held in 13th | 13/14 | 2¼ | 9-9 | 80 | 91C | 66A | Finley Marsh | 14/1 |
| 11 Sep 26+13d | Salisbury | PKF Francis Clark Handicap Stakes Sluggish start - settled towards the back - driven from over 2f out with no impact - finished well held | 6/8 | 3½ | 9-10 | 82 | 86B | 78A | Jack Callan | 10/1 |
| 29 Aug 26+13d | Goodwood | Virgin Bet Every Saturday Money Back Handicap Stakes Settled towards back early - shifted right and moved up outside rivals over 2f out - drifted right again - lost place inside final furlong | 7/11 | ¾ | 8-5 | 83 | 76A | 81A | Gina Mangan | 66/1 |
| 16 Aug 26+37d | Pontefract | Sky Bet Proud To Support Young Lives Vs Cancer Handicap Stakes Slow to break - settled towards the back - pushed along inside the final furlong - crept on late finishing seventh beaten 3 lengths | 7/9 | ½ | 9-9 | 84 | 96A | 90A | Cieren Fallon | 9/1 |
| 10 Jul 26+33d | York | William Hill Extra Place Races Daily Handicap settled towards the back of the pack early - made progress and was driven over 2f out - stayed on at a level gear in the final furlong without finding more | 7/17 | 1¼ | 8-12 | 84 | 104C | 89A | Finley Marsh | 33/1 |
| 07 Jun 26+32d | Goodwood | Elston Support Your Local Air Ambulance Handicap Settled in behind early - driven into contention approaching 2f out - moved up to dispute the lead final furlong - got there right on the line | 1/8 | 9-6 | 82 | 65A | 93A | Finley Marsh | 16/1 | |
| 06 May 26+16d | Chester | Roodee Handicap Settled in the pack - holding position until 2f out - lost ground inside final two furlongs then kept trying to the line | 9/13 | nk | 9-3 | 84 | 70C | 81A | Rossa Ryan | 16/1 |
| 20 Apr 26+178d | Lingfield (AW) | Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Handicap Drifted right at the off - settled towards the back - urged forward with 2f left - finished with good energy inside final 110yds to take third | 3/5 | hd | 9-8 | 84 | 98C | 91B | Finley Marsh | 2/1F |
| 24 Oct 25+27d | Newbury | Saturday Super Boost At BetVictor Handicap Held up in midfield - urged for effort with two furlongs left - form gave way and finished well held | 12/13 | nse | 9-3 | 86 | 43C | 66C | Finley Marsh | 20/1 |
| 27 Sep 25+22d | Newmarket | Ambassador Cruise Line Handicap Held up towards the back on the near flank - driven for effort but faded 2f out - eventually finished 12th | 12/13 | 1 | 8-12 | 88 | 65C | 69A | Finley Marsh | 33/1 |
| 05 Sep 25+34d | Ascot | Molton Brown Classified Stakes Drifted right early then eased across - settled at the back and stayed there - couldn't find extra when asked and drifted right again a furlong out | 6/11 | 1¼ | 9-5 | 90 | 86A | 86A | Billy Loughnane | 14/1 |
| 02 Aug 25+35d | Goodwood | Whispering Angel Handicap Held up towards the back - shifted a path out and made slight progress inside final 2f - lost ground close home to finish 12th | 12/16 | ¾ | 8-10 | 91 | 86C | 85A | Finley Marsh | 33/1 |
| 28 Jun 25+6d | Newcastle (AW) | Pertemps Network Handicap Settled in the pack - pushed along over 2f out but boxed in and moved left for room - once free could not quicken finished 7th | 7/13 | 1½ | 8-5 | 83 | 82B | 75A | Sean D Bowen | 4/1J |
| 22 Jun 25+29d | Pontefract | Sunpak Potatoes Handicap Held up towards the back - urged into contention with progress around the home bend - fighting for third place a furlong out - surged clear close home to win comfortably | 1/7 | 9-4 | 83 | 118A | 104A | Finley Marsh | 7/2 | |
| 24 May 25+10d | Goodwood | BetGoodwin Harroways Handicap Settled in the pack - improved position approaching 3f out then asked for effort inside final 2f - hampered for room and dropped away in the closing stages to finish tenth | 10/14 | nk | 7-11 | 83 | 91C | 77A | Warren Fentiman | 11/1 |
| 14 May 25+9d | York | Conundrum HR Consulting Handicap Drifted right early - settled towards back - progress inside final furlong - stayed on strongly to score | 1/14 | 8-9 | 74 | 81C | 93A | Hector Crouch | 10/1 | |
| 05 May 25+194d | Windsor | attheraces.com/marketmovers Handicap Held up in the early stages and eased across to the far rail - still towards the back with 2f left - flew through the field a furlong out - drifted about on hitting the front inside the last 110 yards - stayed on well to score | 1/12 | 9-5 | 74 | 97A | 96A | Hector Crouch | 13/2 | |
| 23 Oct 24+40d | Kempton (AW) | Unibet More Extra Place Races Nursery Settled towards the back - moved left and pressed on with a furlong left - kept finding late through the closing stages - grabbed 3rd right on the line | 3/12 | hd | 9-8 | 74 | 83A | 83A | Finley Marsh | 9/2 |
| 13 Sep 24+28d | Doncaster | Believe Money 'Confined' Nursery Went straight to front along the near rail - lost command approaching final 2f and quickly weakened for sixth | 6/8 | 3 | 8-13 | 75 | 74A | 73A | Oisin Murphy | 5/1 |
| 16 Aug 24+14d | Newbury | Watch Weekend Winners With BetVictor Nursery Settled towards back of the pack on the far flank - made progress from 2f out and pressed into contention with a furlong left - couldn't quicken again and finished fourth | 4/12 | ¾ | 8-13 | 75 | 83B | 83A | Ryan Moore | 11/4F |
| 02 Aug 24+27d | Goodwood | Hawes & Curtis Nursery Sat close to the front group early - pushed along with a shout inside final furlong - stayed on at same rate to finish third | 3/16 | ¾ | 8-8 | 75 | 70C | 88A | Oisin Murphy | 4/1F |
| 06 Jul 24+15d | Haydock | bet365 Nursery | 3/8 | nk | 8-10 | 72 | 77C | 84A | Finley Marsh | 5/1 |
| 21 Jun 24+12d | Goodwood | William Hill Lengthen Your Odds Maiden Stakes (GBB Race) | 4/9 | nk | 9-7 | — | 94B | 83A | Benoit De La Sayette | 20/1 |
| 09 Jun 24+24d | Goodwood | Hallgarten & Novum Wines / British EBF Novice Stakes (GBB Race) | 6/8 | hd | 9-7 | — | 83A | 77A | Finley Marsh | 25/1 |
| 16 May 24 | York | Frank Whittle Partnership ebfstallions.com Novice Stakes (gbb Race) | 11/11 | ½ | 9-7 | — | 47A | 52A | William Buick | 8/1 |
Quick answers
- How many races has Rare Change (IRE) won?
- Rare Change (IRE) won 4 of 25 archived starts between 2024 and 2026, a strike rate of 16%. Placed 7 times in total (28% of starts).
- Who trains Rare Change (IRE)?
- Rare Change (IRE) is trained by Richard Hughes, who saddled the horse on its most recent run on 24 September 2026.
- Who is Rare Change (IRE)'s sire?
- Rare Change (IRE) is by Mehmas (IRE) out of Plus Ca Change (IRE), whose sire is Invincible Spirit.
- What going does Rare Change (IRE) prefer?
- Rare Change (IRE) has the best record on good to firm going: 2 wins from 6 starts (33.3%). Only going bands with at least three archived starts are read, so this is a direction rather than a settled preference.
- What is Rare Change (IRE)'s official rating?
- The most recent official rating on record is 80, from the run on 24 September 2026. The highest on record is 91.
- What is Rare Change (IRE)'s sire's record?
- Mehmas (IRE)'s progeny in our archive have won 11.6% of 8,086 runs since Jan 2008 (746 horses), Flat and jumps together.
- Who are Rare Change (IRE)'s siblings?
- Out of Plus Ca Change (IRE), Rare Change (IRE) has 3 other produce in our archive, 3 of them winners. Most wins: Mistrix (IRE) (1). Highest grade won: Class 3 (Mistrix (IRE)). The wins came over 5f–7f. As at Oct 2026.