5:20 York
This Class 2 Sky Bet Nursery Handicap over six furlongs at York features a maximum field of 22 two-year-olds on good ground. The KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched at the top, with the principals all rated in the low-to-mid 60s, underlining the competitive nature of the race and the narrow margins between many of these lightly raced juveniles. With several dropping in class and others stepping up, the contest looks typical of a nursery at this level where progressive form, draw, and how the race is run will be key.
How the race shapes up
A strong pace is anticipated given the presence of at least two habitual front-runners and several more who race prominently. Towelontheterrace, The Dancing Pirate, Henley On Thames and Note To Self are all likely to contest the lead or race handily early, while Ruler's Pride should be prominent from a good draw. This shape raises the possibility of the pace collapsing in the later stages, which would play into the hands of hold-up performers such as the selection Crystal Queen, God Given Talent, Havana Sprite and Super Tuscan.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Crystal Queen KTB Selection65/100Crystal Queen is a fair 2yo with some solid placed form at a lower level and has shown enough to suggest she can compete in this higher grade.
- 2God Given Talent61/100God Given Talent is a fair 2-year-old who showed useful speed when winning on debut over this trip on good ground before a stiff task in Group company last time…
- 3Havana Sprite60/100Havana Sprite is a useful 2yo with a strong recent record of 42111 and has won both starts at this trip.
- 4Ruler's Pride60/100Ruler's Pride is a useful 2-year-old with three runs behind him and a solid recent form line of 107.
- 5Super Tuscan59/100Super Tuscan is a fair 2-year-old who has shown mixed form, winning once at this trip from three attempts but finishing no better than fifth in two runs at York…
- 6Jumeirah Storm58/100Fair performer who has shown enough in three runs to suggest he can compete at this level.
- 7Towelontheterrace56/100Fair sort who has shown steady progress in three runs, winning a minor event over this trip on good ground last time.
- 8Savage Mariner55/100Savage Mariner is a fair 2-year-old who has shown ability at this trip, finishing placed once in two runs over six furlongs.
- 9Peaceful Warrior54/100Fair performer who showed useful pace when winning his debut over this trip on good ground before finishing midfield in a stronger race last time.
- 10Persian Spring53/100Persian Spring is a fair 2-year-old who won on debut over this trip at York and has shown that was no fluke by landing another race since.
- 11The Dancing Pirate52/100Fair performer who has shown consistent form in four starts, finishing placed twice at this trip.
- 12Rlasthope52/100Rlasthope is a fair 2-year-old who has shown steady progress, winning once and placing three times from five starts including a third over this course and trip…
- 13Elevating51/100Fair performer who has shown decent placed form at this track and over today's trip.
- 14Brandenburg49/100Fair performer who has shown decent consistency with form figures of 0121 from just four starts.
- 15Underdog48/100Fair performer who showed useful early speed when winning on good ground on his second start but has looked limited since, finishing well beaten in both subsequ…
- 16Sovereign Glory48/100Sovereign Glory is a fair 2-year-old who has shown mixed form across four runs, winning once but finishing down the field last time.
- 17Dubai Champion48/100Fair performer who has shown consistent form, finishing second last time out and placing at this trip.
- 18Henley On Thames48/100Fair performer who has shown consistent form, finishing second twice before winning last time out over this trip.
- 19Note To Self47/100Fair performer who has shown consistent placed form without winning.
- 20Sue's Last Chance43/100Sue's Last Chance is a fair 2-year-old who has shown ordinary form in three runs at this trip, finishing no better than fifth.
- 21Fantasy Force40/100Fair performer who has shown consistent placed form without winning in three starts.
- 22Bear Lee40/100Fair performer who has shown mixed form in three runs, winning on good ground last time but finishing only fourth both here and on his other start at this trip.
The contenders
Crystal Queen KTB Fit 65/100
Crystal Queen is a fair 2yo with some solid placed form at a lower level and has shown enough to suggest she can compete in this higher grade. She steps up from 5f to 6f for the first time today which asks a fresh question of her. The yard and jockey both record an 8% strike rate at York from decent-sized samples. Usually held up and producing her effort late, she is drawn in stall 22. Dropping in class looks a positive move while her recent form reads 210. The selection goes into the race with a KTB Fit rating of 65.
God Given Talent KTB Fit 61/100
God Given Talent is a fair 2-year-old who showed useful speed when winning on debut over this trip on good ground before a stiff task in Group company last time. The first-time headgear is now applied and the yard's strong 17% strike-rate at York plus Tom Marquand's solid record here are both pluses. Trip and ground look suitable on what he has shown so far. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he is drawn in stall 11. Dropping in class looks a sensible move while his recent form reads 106. He carries a KTB Fit rating of 61.
Havana Sprite KTB Fit 60/100
Havana Sprite is a useful 2yo with a strong recent record of 42111 and has won both starts at this trip. The colt has already shown he handles good ground and looks well placed from stall 5. Trainer James Tate has a modest 5% strike rate from 41 runs at York while Hector Crouch is more positive with a 14% record from 84 rides here. Usually held up and producing his effort late with high confidence, he arrives with a KTB Fit rating of 60. His trainer and jockey combination shows a 25% strike rate with a positive A/E.
Ruler's Pride KTB Fit 60/100
Ruler's Pride is a useful 2-year-old with three runs behind him and a solid recent form line of 107. He steps up from 5f to 6f today, a trip he has tried once without success, while the going remains an unknown with only a light raced record to judge from. Trainer K R Burke operates at a 9% strike rate from 654 runs at York and jockey James Doyle sits on a 15% strike rate from 318 rides here. Usually races handily on or close to the lead, he is drawn in stall 8. Dropping in class is a positive and he holds a KTB Fit rating of 60.
Super Tuscan KTB Fit 59/100
Super Tuscan is a fair 2-year-old who has shown mixed form, winning once at this trip from three attempts but finishing no better than fifth in two runs at York. The yard holds a solid 14% strike rate here from 74 runs with a positive A/E of 1.41. Oliver Carmichael has no recorded rides at the track. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he is drawn in stall 7. His recent form reads 54156 and he carries a KTB Fit rating of 59, with one run on good ground yielding no win or place.
The rest of the field
Jumeirah StormKTB Fit 58/100
Jumeirah Storm is a fair performer who has shown enough in three runs to suggest he can compete at this level. Dropping back to 6f looks a sensible move after his last start over 6½f and he already has a win at today's trip on his record. First-time headgear is now fitted while both trainer and jockey have solid York records without setting the place alight. Stepping up in class from a KTB Fit of 58.
TowelontheterraceKTB Fit 56/100
Towelontheterrace is a fair sort who has shown steady progress in three runs, winning a minor event over this trip on good ground last time. Drawn widest of all which is rarely ideal at York and the rise into Class 2 asks a clear new question. Trainer and jockey both have modest records at the track. Stepping up in class with a KTB Fit of 56 and a front-running style.
Savage MarinerKTB Fit 55/100
Savage Mariner is a fair 2-year-old who has shown ability at this trip, finishing placed once in two runs over six furlongs. The first-time headgear is an interesting addition after two modest efforts since an opening second, though he remains lightly raced with scope to improve. Trainer Hugo Palmer has a modest 7% strike rate at York from 148 runs while Colin Keane posts a strong 25% strike rate from his 20 rides at the track. KTB Fit of 55.
Peaceful WarriorKTB Fit 54/100
Peaceful Warrior is a fair performer who showed useful pace when winning his debut over this trip on good ground before finishing midfield in a stronger race last time. Kevin Ryan has an 8% strike rate at York from a big sample while Jamie Spencer is operating at 12% here. Stall 12 looks no help on his third start. Stepping up in class with a KTB Fit of 54.
Persian SpringKTB Fit 53/100
Persian Spring is a fair 2-year-old who won on debut over this trip at York and has shown that was no fluke by landing another race since. The recent 100s in Class 2 company highlight the rise in grade he faces today, though his course win and proven ability on good ground are plus points. Trainer Hannon holds an 11% strike-rate from 347 runs at York while Dobbs is 6% from 67 rides here. KTB Fit of 53.
The Dancing PirateKTB Fit 52/100
The Dancing Pirate is a fair performer who has shown consistent form in four starts, finishing placed twice at this trip. First-time headgear is now tried after a rather laboured effort last time. Trainer and jockey both have solid records at York. Front-running style with a KTB Fit of 52.
RlasthopeKTB Fit 52/100
Rlasthope is a fair 2-year-old who has shown steady progress, winning once and placing three times from five starts including a third over this course and trip last time. He stays this six furlongs well enough and the booking of Ray Dawson is a positive given the jockey's strong 23% strike rate at York from 39 rides. Trainer Tony Coyle has a modest 0% strike rate from 20 runs here though and the wide draw in stall 15 adds another negative. Stepping up in class with a KTB Fit of 52.
ElevatingKTB Fit 51/100
Elevating is a fair performer who has shown decent placed form at this track and over today's trip. The step up from 5f looks a reasonable move on pedigree and the way he has been campaigned so far. Trainer has a solid record at York but the jockey is still seeking his first winner here from limited rides. Dropping in class with a KTB Fit of 51.
BrandenburgKTB Fit 49/100
Brandenburg is a fair performer who has shown decent consistency with form figures of 0121 from just four starts. He has already won at this trip and finished a solid second when he ran here at York, though the wide draw in stall 21 is a clear negative. Trainer and jockey both have established records at the track but neither figure stands out as strong. Stepping up in class with a KTB Fit of 49.
UnderdogKTB Fit 48/100
Underdog is a fair performer who showed useful early speed when winning on good ground on his second start but has looked limited since, finishing well beaten in both subsequent runs. Drawn wide in stall 17 and asked to drop back to a trip he failed to handle last time. Trainer and jockey both have modest records at York from decent-sized samples. Dropping in class with a KTB Fit of 48.
Sovereign GloryKTB Fit 48/100
Sovereign Glory is a fair 2-year-old who has shown mixed form across four runs, winning once but finishing down the field last time. He has been placed at today's trip without winning and holds strong course connections through his trainer. The wide draw in stall 16 adds a negative on this track. KTB Fit of 48.
Dubai ChampionKTB Fit 48/100
Dubai Champion is a fair performer who has shown consistent form, finishing second last time out and placing at this trip. He ran respectably when fourth on his only visit to York but the wide draw in stall 20 is a clear negative from the far side. Trainer Ben Haslam has a modest 3% strike rate here while Ryan Moore brings strong 16% figures at the track. KTB Fit of 48.
Henley On ThamesKTB Fit 48/100
Henley On Thames is a fair performer who has shown consistent form, finishing second twice before winning last time out over this trip. He acts on good ground and has the right draw to be competitive from stall six. Trainer and jockey both have modest records at York. Stepping up in class with a KTB Fit of 48 and a front-running style.
Note To SelfKTB Fit 47/100
Note To Self is a fair performer who has shown consistent placed form without winning. Dropping back to 6f looks a sensible move after his last run over 7f and he has already been placed at today's trip. Trainer has a solid 22% strike rate at York though the jockey's record at the track is more modest. Stepping up in class with a KTB Fit of 47 and a front-running style.
Sue's Last ChanceKTB Fit 43/100
Sue's Last Chance is a fair 2-year-old who has shown ordinary form in three runs at this trip, finishing no better than fifth. He has been beaten at York on all three starts here and is drawn in stall 1 which may not help. The Fahey yard has an 8% strike-rate at the track while Cam Hardie is operating at just 2% from a large sample of rides. KTB Fit of 43.
Fantasy ForceKTB Fit 40/100
Fantasy Force is a fair performer who has shown consistent placed form without winning in three starts. Third of 11 over course and distance last time suggests he handles this track and trip okay, though the small sample leaves his exact level open to question. First-time headgear is now applied while the yard and jockey both have solid if unspectacular records at York. Stepping up in class with a KTB Fit of 40.
Bear LeeKTB Fit 40/100
Bear Lee is a fair performer who has shown mixed form in three runs, winning on good ground last time but finishing only fourth both here and on his other start at this trip. The yard has a modest record at York and the same applies to the jockey, so the pair will need to improve on those figures. Going is a plus but he remains lightly raced and not fully exposed. Stepping up in class with a KTB Fit of 40.
KTB verdict
Crystal Queen is the KTB Selection. She is a fair 2yo with solid placed form at a lower level and has shown enough to suggest she can make her mark in this higher grade, particularly with the strong pace likely to suit her hold-up style. The step up to 6f is an unknown but the yard and jockey both have respectable 8% strike rates at York from decent samples. Her main dangers are God Given Talent, who brings useful speed, first-time headgear and strong York figures for Haggas and Marquand, and Havana Sprite, who boasts a fine recent record and has already won twice over the trip.
KTB Selection Crystal Queen
This is the narrative read of the 5:20 York. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the York racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horses are likely to set the strong pace?
Towelontheterrace, The Dancing Pirate, Henley On Thames and Note To Self are all front-runners or prominent, while Ruler's Pride races handily.
Why does the pace shape favour hold-up horses?
The strong pace with two or more habitual front-runners could collapse late, which would favour hold-up horses according to the supplied pace shape.
How many runners have course form at York?
Persian Spring has won here, Rlasthope has finished third, Elevating has finished second, Brandenburg has finished second, Dubai Champion has finished fourth, Fantasy Force has finished third, Bear Lee has finished fourth, and Super Tuscan has finished fifth twice.
Which jockey has the strongest strike rate at York among those riding in this race?
Ray Dawson has a 23% strike rate at York from 39 rides, while Colin Keane has a 25% strike rate from 20 rides.
Which trainer has the best strike rate at York in this field?
John & Thady Gosden have a 22% strike rate at York from 124 runs.
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