3:35 York
The 2026 Coolmore City Of Troy Nunthorpe Stakes is a Group 1 sprint over five furlongs at York on good to soft ground, featuring an 18-runner field where class and pace resilience will be at a premium. KTB's Fit Scores cluster tightly between 66 and 44, reflecting a competitive Group 1 in which recent form is mixed across the board and several smart performers arrive with questions to answer. The KTB numbers highlight Asfoora as the selection on the back of her course record and proven ability at the trip, though the strength of the pace shape and unproven elements for several leading contenders add layers of intrigue.
How the race shapes up
With two or more habitual front-runners in the field and the pace shape assessed as strong with high confidence, the race is expected to be run at a searching gallop that could leave the leaders vulnerable in the closing stages. Night Raider and Fitzella are the most likely to take the field along from their low draws, while the majority of the field, including the top three in the KTB Fit rankings, are hold-up types who will look to conserve energy early and pounce late. This sets up a key question of whether the strong pace will collapse as anticipated, thereby playing into the hands of those racing from off the speed in a race where late closers could dominate.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Asfoora KTB Selection66/100Smart performer who has won at this trip eight times from 25 starts and landed a race here from two visits.
- 2Mission Central63/100Smart performer who has won three of his six starts at this trip and arrives in decent form after a solid placed effort last time.
- 3Jm Jungle62/100Smart performer who has won over this trip and at this track.
- 4Night Raider62/100Smart performer who has run well in two starts at this track, finishing third and fourth.
- 5Starlust61/100Smart performer who has won twice at this track from five runs and also has a solid record at today's trip with three wins from 12 starts.
- 6American Affair60/100Smart performer with a solid record at this track and trip.
- 7Bacio60/100Smart performer who has won both starts this year after a promising debut.
- 8Partisan Hero59/100Smart performer who won on his only previous visit to York and has solid form figures this year.
- 9Cover Up59/100Smart performer who has won nine of his 18 starts at this trip and arrives in decent nick after a recent success.
- 10Redorange56/100Smart performer who has won over this trip three times from 14 attempts and showed his liking for York when successful here last season.
- 11Pershaada55/100Smart performer who has already won twice at this trip from five starts.
- 12Time For Sandals54/100Smart performer who has run well at this track before, finishing second here last season.
- 13Rayevka50/100Smart performer who has shown useful form this year with a win and second from her last three starts.
- 14Fitzella50/100Useful performer who has not really built on early promise and arrives here on the back of two modest efforts.
- 15Ain't Nobody48/100Useful performer who has placed here without winning and has solid recent efforts on this ground with one win from two starts.
- 16Rumstar47/100Smart performer who has won six times over this trip from 20 attempts and arrives in decent recent form with two wins and a second from his last four starts.
- 17Heavenly Heather45/100Useful performer who has placed here without winning and showed solid form at this trip with one win from six attempts.
- 18Azure Angel44/100Azure Angel is a useful performer who has won three times at this trip from 12 attempts and arrives in decent recent form.
The contenders
Asfoora KTB Fit 66/100
Asfoora is a smart performer who has won at this trip eight times from 25 starts and landed a race here from two visits to York. Recent form of 00794 is nothing to shout about and she has failed to place in two runs on good to soft ground. Henry Dwyer has a 50% strike rate at York with an A/E of 2.07 from two runs, while Oisin Murphy brings a 16% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 1.11 from 336 rides. The 8-year-old is usually held up and produces her effort late with high confidence in that run-style. Trainer and jockey figures read 3/10 (30%) with an A/E of 1.45 and +£11.60 LSP.
Mission Central KTB Fit 63/100
Mission Central is a smart performer who has won three of his six starts at this trip and arrives in decent form after a solid placed effort last time. Dropping back from 6f to 5f looks a sensible move given his record at the shorter distance. Aidan O'Brien has a 14% strike rate at York with an A/E of 0.73 from 355 runs, and Ryan Moore posts a 16% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 0.91 from 654 rides. The 3-year-old is usually held up and produces his effort late with medium confidence. The horse remains unproven on good to soft ground and the trainer and jockey combination shows 668/2507 (27%) with an A/E of 0.92 and -£283.54 LSP.
Jm Jungle KTB Fit 62/100
Jm Jungle is a smart performer who has won over this trip and at this track. Recent form is patchy but the yard have a solid record here with a 14% strike rate and A/E of 1.31 from 42 runs. The 6-year-old has placed six times from eight runs on good to soft ground and first-time headgear is now added from stall 16. Jason Hart has an 8% strike rate at York with an A/E of 0.89 from 351 rides. The trainer and jockey record stands at 64/585 (11%) with an A/E of 0.77 and -£181.10 LSP.
Night Raider KTB Fit 62/100
Night Raider is a smart performer who has run well in two starts at this track, finishing third and fourth. He has won on good to soft ground and at today's trip, though recent form has been patchy. Karl Burke has a 9% strike rate at York with an A/E of 0.91 from 662 runs, while James Doyle brings a 14% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 1.03 from 327 rides. The 5-year-old tends to make the running or race on the pace with medium confidence. The trainer and jockey figures read 17/74 (23%) with an A/E of 1.02 and +£13.46 LSP.
Starlust KTB Fit 61/100
Starlust is a smart performer who has won twice at this track from five runs and also has a solid record at today's trip with three wins from 12 starts. He handles good to soft ground well with two wins and three places from four attempts. Ralph Beckett has a 13% strike rate at York with an A/E of 1 from 344 runs, and Rossa Ryan posts a 13% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 1.07 from 182 rides. The 5-year-old is usually held up and produces his effort late with high confidence. Recent form has been patchy but the York course connections and class read give this one a solid profile. The trainer and jockey record stands at 222/1062 (21%) with an A/E of 0.96 and -£14.20 LSP.
The rest of the field
American AffairKTB Fit 60/100
American Affair is a smart performer with a solid record at this track and trip, having won once from four runs here. He boasts seven wins from 17 starts at five furlongs, including three from seven on good to soft ground, but Jim Goldie's modest 5% strike rate from 406 runs at York is a clear negative.
BacioKTB Fit 60/100
Bacio is a smart performer who has won both starts this year after a promising debut and has already shown he handles today's trip. The yard's modest record at York is a slight concern but this one brings strong recent form into the race while stepping up in class and remaining unproven on good to soft ground.
Partisan HeroKTB Fit 59/100
Partisan Hero is a smart performer who won on his only previous visit to York and has solid form figures this year. He has won on good to soft ground and at this trip, though the wide draw in stall 17 is a clear negative from a big field, while both trainer and jockey have established records at the track.
Cover UpKTB Fit 59/100
Cover Up is a smart performer who has won nine of his 18 starts at this trip and arrives in decent nick after a recent success. He has never won or placed from three runs on good to soft ground and could only finish fifth from one previous run at York, though the Crisford yard holds a solid 20% strike rate here.
RedorangeKTB Fit 56/100
Redorange is a smart performer who has won over this trip three times from 14 attempts and showed his liking for York when successful here last season. He arrives in decent form after a recent win but is completely unproven on good to soft ground and the wide draw in stall 18 adds another complication.
PershaadaKTB Fit 55/100
Pershaada is a smart performer who has already won twice at this trip from five starts with recent form of 32141 showing consistent high-class ability. The York course connections add further strength, though the horse remains unproven on good to soft ground.
Time For SandalsKTB Fit 54/100
Time For Sandals is a smart performer who has run well at this track before, finishing second here last season. He is consistent at this trip with three placed efforts from four starts, looks at home on good to soft ground and has placed here without winning, though drawn wide today with patchy recent form.
RayevkaKTB Fit 50/100
Rayevka is a smart performer who has shown useful form this year with a win and second from her last three starts. She has already won over today's trip and has a solid record on good to soft ground, though this is her first run at York and the trainer's small sample here makes it a fresh test.
FitzellaKTB Fit 50/100
Fitzella is a useful performer who has not really built on early promise and arrives here on the back of two modest efforts. Dropping back to 5f is interesting as she has placed once at the trip, though she is unproven on good to soft ground, the trainer has a modest record at York and she ran poorly here last time.
Ain't NobodyKTB Fit 48/100
Ain't Nobody is a useful performer who has placed here without winning and has solid recent efforts on this ground with one win from two starts. He has won twice at today's trip from seven attempts but his recent form figures of 07-090 suggest he is currently out of sorts and the trainer's modest 8% strike rate at York from a huge sample is worth noting.
RumstarKTB Fit 47/100
Rumstar is a smart performer who has won six times over this trip from 20 attempts and arrives in decent recent form with two wins and a second from his last four starts. He has been below par in his only previous run here and has failed to place in four runs on good to soft ground, while the yard's modest 4% strike rate at York adds a further negative.
Heavenly HeatherKTB Fit 45/100
Heavenly Heather is a useful performer who has placed here without winning and showed solid form at this trip with one win from six attempts. She has no experience on good to soft ground so that remains a question, while the trainer's modest 5% strike rate from 42 runs at York adds a negative.
Azure AngelKTB Fit 44/100
Azure Angel is a useful performer who has won three times at this trip from 12 attempts and arrives in decent recent form. She has run four times at York without winning or placing, the trainer operates at an 8% strike rate here from 93 runs and she is unproven on good to soft ground.
KTB verdict
Asfoora is the KTB Selection. She remains a smart performer with eight wins at the trip and a previous success at York, and her hold-up style is well suited to the expected strong pace that could collapse late. The selection's course record and trainer's strike rate at York provide a firm foundation despite the recent form reading modestly. Main dangers include Mission Central, who drops back to a trip where he has an excellent record, and Jm Jungle, who has placed form on good to soft and now tries first-time headgear. Starlust and Night Raider also hold solid claims on their York and ground profiles, making this a deep Group 1 where the pace shape will likely decide the outcome.
KTB Selection Asfoora
This is the narrative read of the 3:35 York. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the York racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Why does the strong pace shape favour hold-up horses in this Nunthorpe Stakes?
The pace shape is assessed as strong with high confidence due to two or more habitual front-runners, meaning the leaders could collapse late and hand the advantage to those producing their effort from off the pace.
How many wins does Asfoora have at five furlongs?
Asfoora has won at this trip eight times from 25 starts.
Which principals are unproven on good to soft ground?
Mission Central, Bacio, Pershaada, Fitzella, Redorange, Heavenly Heather and Azure Angel are all unproven on good to soft ground.
Which horse is the only one in the field to have won on its sole previous visit to York?
Partisan Hero won on his only previous visit to York.
What is the trainer's strike rate at York for the yard of the KTB Selection?
Henry Dwyer has a 50% strike rate at York with an A/E of 2.07 from two runs.
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