6:15 Hamilton
The 6:15 at Hamilton is a competitive Class 2 Heritage Handicap over 1m4f15y on good to soft ground, featuring a field of 15 that includes several useful performers. KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched at the top, with El Burhan heading the list on 64, followed closely by Yabher on 61 and Strassia on 60. The race carries GBBPlus status and promises to be a thorough test given the strong pace anticipated.
How the race shapes up
With two or more habitual front-runners in the line-up and a strong pace shape assessed at high confidence, the early gallop is expected to be demanding. Evanesco and Altareq are likely to contest the lead, while Spioradalta can also race prominently, setting a tempo that could see the pace collapse in the later stages. This scenario would play to the strengths of hold-up performers, with several principals and field runners waiting to pounce from off the speed, making late closing ability the key question in the race.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1El Burhan KTB Selection64/100Useful performer who arrives in solid form after three straight placed efforts at this level.
- 2Yabher61/100Useful performer who has won at this trip in the past but has been below form on his last two starts.
- 3Strassia60/100Useful performer who has been out of form lately with a string of modest efforts.
- 4Noble Horizon58/100Noble Horizon is a useful performer on the back of a solid recent record that includes a win and a second.
- 5Teumessias Fox57/100Useful performer who has won three times at this trip from 14 attempts and arrives in reasonable form having placed twice in his last three starts.
- 6Lavender Hill Mob55/100Useful performer who has dropped in the weights after a string of modest efforts this year.
- 7Spioradalta54/100Useful performer who has won on his only previous visit to Hamilton and has solid placed form at this trip.
- 8Evanesco54/100Evanesco is a useful performer who has mixed form this year with a win and two placed efforts from ten runs.
- 9Tiernan53/100Tiernan is a fair performer who has shown his best at this track, winning once from five runs here.
- 10Ashnak52/100Ashnak is a fair performer who has shown consistent form this year, finishing no worse than seventh in nine starts.
- 11Letsbefrank48/100Letsbefrank is a fair performer with a solid record here, having won two of his six runs at Hamilton.
- 12Salamanca City48/100Salamanca City is a fair horse in excellent recent order with three wins from his last four starts.
- 13Altareq48/100Altareq is a fair performer who has shown mixed form this year with a win and two placed efforts alongside some lesser runs.
- 14Evaluation45/100Evaluation is a fair performer on his best days but has been out of form for some time and finished well beaten on his last two starts.
- 15Elsass44/100Elsass is a fair performer who won here over 1m 4f on his only previous visit to Hamilton.
The contenders
El Burhan KTB Fit 64/100
El Burhan is a useful performer who arrives in solid form after three straight placed efforts at this level. He has won both starts on good to soft ground and the yard fires at 33% here, though this represents a first run at Hamilton and a step up in trip that has yet to be answered. Jockey Pat Cosgrave holds a respectable 15% strike rate at the track. Typically settling in midfield from draw 4, he can be positioned to advantage if the strong pace takes its toll on the leaders. The trainer and jockey combination posts a 31/189 record with an A/E of 0.92. Recent form of 91-543 underlines his consistency at this level.
Yabher KTB Fit 61/100
Yabher is a useful performer who has won at this trip in the past but has been below form on his last two starts. First time headgear is now tried and he steps up in distance having already shown he handles good to soft ground once. Haggas has a strong 31% strike rate here while Fallon is operating at 22%. Usually held up and producing his effort late from draw 10, he is well suited to the expected strong pace that could collapse. The trainer and jockey record stands at 211/922 with an A/E of 0.96. Recent form of 01-100 suggests there is scope for improvement in the new headgear.
Strassia KTB Fit 60/100
Strassia is a useful performer who has been out of form lately with a string of modest efforts. Drops back from 2m to a trip he has won at before while first-time headgear is now applied. Trainer has a solid 17% strike-rate at Hamilton but this horse has shown little on good to soft ground in two previous tries. Usually held up and producing his effort late from draw 5, he could capitalise if the pace melts late on. The trainer and jockey record stands at 190/1564 with an A/E of 0.91. Recent form of 3/606- indicates the drop in class and new headgear are required to spark a revival.
Noble Horizon KTB Fit 58/100
Noble Horizon is a useful performer on the back of a solid recent record that includes a win and a second. Drawn in stall one he has course experience here though he could only finish fifth on his sole visit. The step up to 1m4f is an unknown and he is unproven on good to soft ground. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he is another who could benefit from the strong pace shape. The jockey records a 17% strike rate at Hamilton with an A/E of 0.98. Recent form of 83-712 shows he is competitive at this level when things fall right.
Teumessias Fox KTB Fit 57/100
Teumessias Fox is a useful performer who has won three times at this trip from 14 attempts and arrives in reasonable form having placed twice in his last three starts. He has never run at Hamilton before and is 0-3 on good to soft ground so far. Andrew Balding has a strong 30 percent strike rate here while Tom Eaves sits on a more modest 10 percent from a big sample. Usually held up and producing his effort late from draw 3 with high confidence in that run-style, he fits the profile for a race where the pace could collapse. The trainer and jockey record stands at an overall 30% strike rate for the yard at the track. Recent form of 3-535P keeps him in the mix at this level.
The rest of the field
Lavender Hill MobKTB Fit 55/100
Lavender Hill Mob is a useful performer who has dropped in the weights after a string of modest efforts this year. Drops back from 2m to a trip he has won at before and handles good to soft ground. Trainer is still seeking a first Hamilton winner from nine runs while the jockey has a solid record here.
SpioradaltaKTB Fit 54/100
Spioradalta is a useful performer who has won on his only previous visit to Hamilton and has solid placed form at this trip. He has three wins from ten runs on good to soft ground and arrives in reasonable form having shown his best this year when second at York last time. Both trainer and jockey have respectable records at the track though neither is especially prolific. Tends to make the running or race on the pace and will help ensure the strong gallop.
EvanescoKTB Fit 54/100
Evanesco is a useful performer who has mixed form this year with a win and two placed efforts from ten runs. He steps up to 1m4f for the first time today which asks a fresh question while his only run on good to soft ground produced a placing. The trainer has an 11% strike rate from 168 runs at Hamilton and the jockey records a stronger 23% from 35 rides here. Tends to make the running or race on the pace with high confidence and will be to the fore in the expected strong tempo.
TiernanKTB Fit 53/100
Tiernan is a fair performer who has shown his best at this track, winning once from five runs here. He comes into the race in decent nick after a recent win but steps up in trip today having failed to score in his only previous attempt at this distance. The yard and jockey both have solid 12% strike rates at Hamilton though he has shown little on good to soft ground so far. Usually held up and produces his effort late.
AshnakKTB Fit 52/100
Ashnak is a fair performer who has shown consistent form this year, finishing no worse than seventh in nine starts. He has yet to win or place on good to soft ground in two attempts and remains unsuccessful in two runs at this trip. The David O'Meara yard has a solid 17% strike rate at Hamilton from 420 runs while Mark Winn posts a 12% rate from 67 rides here. Usually held up and produces his effort late.
LetsbefrankKTB Fit 48/100
Letsbefrank is a fair performer with a solid record here, having won two of his six runs at Hamilton. He has been in and out of form lately but did win a similar race on his penultimate start and handles good to soft ground. Dropping back from 2m1f to this trip looks a sensible move given his previous win at the distance. Usually held up and produces his effort late.
Salamanca CityKTB Fit 48/100
Salamanca City is a fair horse in excellent recent order with three wins from his last four starts. He has a solid record on good to soft ground including two wins from five starts and is two from two at this trip. The yard has a 17 percent strike rate at Hamilton while the jockey is still seeking his first winner from ten rides here and the wide draw in stall 14 adds another question. Usually held up and produces his effort late.
AltareqKTB Fit 48/100
Altareq is a fair performer who has shown mixed form this year with a win and two placed efforts alongside some lesser runs. He has run twice at Hamilton without winning though he did finish third on one occasion while the yard has a modest 10% strike rate here from a large sample. The step up to 1m4f is an unknown and he remains unproven on good to soft ground. Tends to make the running or race on the pace and will contribute to the strong early pace.
EvaluationKTB Fit 45/100
Evaluation is a fair performer on his best days but has been out of form for some time and finished well beaten on his last two starts. He drops back from 2m to a trip at which he has placed but never won, while his record on good to soft is modest with no win or place from two runs. The trainer has a 6% strike rate from 17 runs at Hamilton and the horse makes his first appearance here. Usually held up and produces his effort late.
ElsassKTB Fit 44/100
Elsass is a fair performer who won here over 1m 4f on his only previous visit to Hamilton. He has been in decent form this season with two wins from his last five starts though he has yet to score at this trip in four attempts. The yard has a solid record at the track while the jockey is less prolific here. Usually held up and produces his effort late.
KTB verdict
El Burhan looks the pick on balance as the KTB Selection. He comes into the race in consistent form with three straight placed efforts at this level, boasts a perfect record on good to soft ground from two starts, and benefits from a yard that strikes at 33% at Hamilton. His ability to settle in midfield should allow him to pick up the pieces if the strong pace takes its toll late on. The main dangers are Yabher, who brings first-time headgear and a strong trainer record at the track, and Strassia, who drops in class with headgear applied and is another hold-up type suited to the shape.
KTB Selection El Burhan
This is the narrative read of the 6:15 Hamilton. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Hamilton racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is most proven on good to soft ground among the principals?
El Burhan has won both starts on good to soft ground.
How does the strong pace shape influence the race?
The strong pace could collapse late, which would favour hold-up horses.
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at Hamilton in this field?
George Boughey has a 33% strike rate at Hamilton, with Andrew Balding on 30% and William Haggas on 31%.
Which runners are expected to set the strong pace?
Evanesco and Altareq are front-runners, with Spioradalta also tending to race on the pace.
Which horse has course-and-distance form at Hamilton?
Elsass won here over 1m4f on his only previous visit, while Spioradalta has won here from one visit.
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