6:45 Hamilton
This Class 3 handicap over 5f7y at Hamilton on good to soft ground features a field of 13 where the KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched at the top. Parisiac heads the numbers with a 63 rating as the selection, followed closely by Sir Yoshi on 60, Germanic on 59, and both Vantheman and Stargazed on 57. The race is stepping up or dropping in class for several runners, with course form and going suitability playing key roles in a contest where the KTB numbers highlight a cluster of fair performers with recent wins or placed efforts.
How the race shapes up
A strong pace is anticipated with high confidence, driven by two or more habitual front-runners including Jordan Electrics and Canon's House who tend to make the running or race prominently. This setup could see the speed collapse late, playing into the hands of the numerous hold-up performers that dominate the field. Most of the principals, from Parisiac to Stargazed, are typically held up and produce their effort late, meaning the race is likely to be decided by which closers can pick up the pieces once the leaders tire. The key question is whether the strong pace will create enough late openings for the hold-up horses to capitalise on from their respective draws.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Parisiac KTB Selection63/100Parisiac is a fair performer who has won twice from nine runs at Hamilton and looks well placed from stall two.
- 2Sir Yoshi60/100Sir Yoshi is a fair performer who has been consistent enough in recent months but has finished no better than third in his last nine starts.
- 3Germanic59/100Useful performer who arrives in decent nick after a win and a solid run last time.
- 4Vantheman57/100Vantheman is a fair performer who has won over this trip four times from 19 starts and looks suited by good to soft ground with one win and a placing from four…
- 5Stargazed57/100Stargazed is a fair 3-year-old with a win on good to soft and another at today's trip, though his recent form has been patchy and he now tries headgear for the…
- 6Jordan Electrics56/100Fair sort who has won six times at Hamilton from just ten starts and arrives in reasonable form after a recent win.
- 7Sturlasson55/100Sturlasson is a fair performer who has been consistent enough without winning lately, finishing in the frame on three of his last four starts.
- 8Eternal Sunshine55/100Fair performer who has been a regular here and has placed three times from four runs at Hamilton.
- 9Advertised53/100Useful performer who has mixed form this year and was well held in two starts since a promising second at York in May.
- 10Canon's House52/100Canon's House is a fair performer who has won once from two runs at Hamilton and also won on good to soft ground.
- 11Tatterstall50/100Tatterstall is a fair performer who has won four times at this trip and showed his best form when second here last season.
- 12Oriental Prince38/100Modest performer who has been in and out of form this year.
- 13Justmyluck37/100Modest performer who has won once over this trip from five attempts but has shown little spark in six runs this year.
The contenders
Parisiac KTB Fit 63/100
Parisiac is a fair performer who has won twice from nine runs at Hamilton and looks well placed from stall two. He has solid form on good to soft ground with two wins and three places from five runs, plus a strong recent record that includes two wins from his last four starts. The drop back to 5f is an unknown but he has won seven times at the trip in the past, while the trainer's modest 12 percent strike rate here is offset by the jockey's 33 percent from six rides. As a usual hold-up performer he is set to benefit from the anticipated strong pace that could collapse late. His recent form figures of 8-1220 underline his competitiveness at this level when things fall right, and the step up in class is not expected to trouble him given his track record. With Conor Whiteley claiming 5lb, he arrives as the KTB selection in a race where his course wins and going affinity stand out.
Sir Yoshi KTB Fit 60/100
Sir Yoshi is a fair performer who has been consistent enough in recent months but has finished no better than third in his last nine starts. He has won at this trip in the past yet arrives with no experience of good to soft ground and is making his first visit to Hamilton. The trainer holds a solid 13% strike rate here while the jockey is operating at 12%. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he should be suited by the strong pace that is likely to unfold, though his lack of experience on the surface and at the track adds an element of uncertainty. His recent form of -09939 shows steady but not sparkling efforts, and the drop in class could help him find a bit more. Overall he shapes as a solid each-way prospect if the ground does not prove a problem.
Germanic KTB Fit 59/100
Germanic is a useful performer who arrives in decent nick after a win and a solid run last time. He has won over today's trip but only placed once in three starts on good to soft and has never been to Hamilton before. The yard holds a respectable record here yet the jockey is operating at a low 2% strike rate from 47 rides. As a hold-up type with medium confidence in that assessment he is expected to come from off the pace in a race where the strong tempo could play to his strengths late on. Recent form of 01-910 highlights his ability to strike when conditions suit, and the drop in class is a positive. His competitiveness on the surface remains to be fully proven but he cannot be dismissed in this field.
Vantheman KTB Fit 57/100
Vantheman is a fair performer who has won over this trip four times from 19 starts and looks suited by good to soft ground with one win and a placing from four runs. He has course experience at Hamilton where he has won once from five starts. The Kevin Ryan yard has a solid 20% strike rate here from a large sample while Tom Eaves is operating at a 10% strike rate from nearly a thousand rides at the track. Usually held up with medium confidence, he will be looking to capitalise if the strong pace collapses late. His recent form of 013445 shows consistent efforts without quite landing a blow of late, and the drop in class should be in his favour. With a previous course win to his name he knows what is required around here.
Stargazed KTB Fit 57/100
Stargazed is a fair 3-year-old with a win on good to soft and another at today's trip, though his recent form has been patchy and he now tries headgear for the first time. The yard holds a solid 16% strike rate at Hamilton from a big sample while Sam James is operating at 14%, so the booking looks sensible enough. Course form remains unknown as this is his first run here. Usually held up with medium confidence in that read, he should appreciate the strong pace likely to be set up front. His form figures of -20878 reflect inconsistency of late but the first-time headgear could spark improvement, and the drop in class is another plus. With a win on the surface already banked he is one of the more interesting younger contenders.
The rest of the field
Jordan ElectricsKTB Fit 56/100
Jordan Electrics is a fair sort who has won six times at Hamilton from just ten starts and arrives in reasonable form after a recent win. Drops back to 5f today having last run over 6f, a trip at which he has also won six times from 21 starts. Trainer's modest 10% strike rate here is offset by the jockey's solid 12% from 67 rides.
SturlassonKTB Fit 55/100
Sturlasson is a fair performer who has been consistent enough without winning lately, finishing in the frame on three of his last four starts. He drops back to 5f having won at the trip before, and his record shows he handles good to soft ground. The trainer is 0% from five runs here while the jockey has a solid 22% strike rate from nine rides at Hamilton.
Eternal SunshineKTB Fit 55/100
Eternal Sunshine is a fair performer who has been a regular here and has placed three times from four runs at Hamilton. Consistent on good to soft ground and has won at this trip though the recent form of 942602 suggests she is vulnerable to sharper types. Trainer has a modest 10% strike rate at the track while the jockey records a solid 13%.
AdvertisedKTB Fit 53/100
Advertised is a useful performer who has mixed form this year and was well held in two starts since a promising second at York in May. Drops back to 5f having been placed without winning at the trip last season. Trainer and jockey both have modest records at Hamilton while the horse remains unproven on good to soft ground.
Canon's HouseKTB Fit 52/100
Canon's House is a fair performer who has won once from two runs at Hamilton and also won on good to soft ground. He has three wins from 17 starts at this trip and his recent form of 250634 shows he can be competitive at this level when on song. The yard has an 11% strike rate here from 89 runs while Joanna Mason is operating at 7% from 68 rides at the track.
TatterstallKTB Fit 50/100
Tatterstall is a fair performer who has won four times at this trip and showed his best form when second here last season. He has been out of sorts on his last two starts and has failed to place in two previous runs on good to soft ground. First-time headgear is now applied while the yard has a solid 12% strike rate at Hamilton from a large sample.
Oriental PrinceKTB Fit 38/100
Oriental Prince is a modest performer who has been in and out of form this year. He has placed twice from four runs at Hamilton and has won four times at this trip, but he has failed to place in three runs on good to soft ground. The trainer has a solid 10% strike rate here from a huge sample while the jockey is operating at 8%.
JustmyluckKTB Fit 37/100
Justmyluck is a modest performer who has won once over this trip from five attempts but has shown little spark in six runs this year. Has a bit of course experience here yet could only finish fifth on his sole visit and has failed to place on his only start on good to soft. Trainer and jockey both operate at a 7% strike rate at Hamilton from large samples.
KTB verdict
Parisiac stands out as the KTB selection. He combines proven course form with two wins from nine starts at Hamilton, a strong record on good to soft ground, and the benefit of a good draw in stall two for a horse that usually comes from off the pace. The anticipated strong pace looks ideal for his hold-up style, and his recent record of two wins from four starts gives him solid claims stepping up in class. His main dangers are likely to come from Sir Yoshi and Germanic, both of whom are dropping in class and should also relish the late-race opportunities created by the pace, though they have their own question marks over the ground and track respectively. Vantheman and Stargazed round out the principals with course and going pluses of their own.
KTB Selection Parisiac
This is the narrative read of the 6:45 Hamilton. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Hamilton racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
How many wins has Parisiac recorded at Hamilton?
Two wins from nine runs
Which runners are likely to set the strong pace?
Jordan Electrics and Canon's House, both of whom tend to make the running or race prominently
What is the KTB Fit score for the selection Parisiac?
63/100
Which horse is trying first-time headgear?
Stargazed and Tatterstall
How many wins has Jordan Electrics recorded at Hamilton?
Six wins from ten starts
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