4:00 Naas
The 4:00 at Naas is the Tally-Ho Stud Irish EBF Ballyogan Stakes, a Group 3 contest over 5f 205y on good ground. An eight-runner field of mostly three- and four-year-olds lines up in a race that lacks an obvious leader according to the KTB pace shape. The KTB Fit ratings identify Soul Love as the top-rated contender on 77, with First Instinct, Havana Anna and Temperance completing the principals, while the remaining quartet are rated between 54 and 46.
How the race shapes up
With no horse obviously wanting the lead, the race is set to be a steadily-run, tactical affair in which being handy should pay dividends. Most of the field are held-up types who produce their efforts late, so the pace shape points to a race that could develop into a sprint for the line in the final two furlongs. The key question is which of the patient runners can time their challenge best off what is likely to be a modest gallop.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Soul Love KTB Selection77/100Soul Love is a useful performer who has won four of her six starts including a victory on this track from a single visit.
- 2First Instinct70/100Smart performer who has won three times at this trip from six attempts and also holds a solid record on good ground with a win and three places from four starts…
- 3Havana Anna67/100Smart performer who has won all three starts at this track.
- 4Temperance57/100Fair performer who has won over this trip and at this track.
- 5Dancing Saxon54/100Useful performer who has shown strong form this year with three wins from his last four starts.
- 6Chantez53/100Useful performer who has run respectably at this track on both previous visits without managing to win or place.
- 7Focaccia48/100Focaccia is a fair 3-year-old who has shown consistent placed form at this trip without winning and arrives in reasonable nick after a string of respectable eff…
- 8Treasure Rose46/100Treasure Rose is a fair performer who has been consistent this year with a string of placed efforts.
The contenders
Soul Love KTB Fit 77/100
Soul Love is a useful performer who has won four of her six starts, including a victory on this track from a single visit. She has already won twice on good ground and looks well suited by the trip having scored four times over it. The Burke yard has a strong 33% strike rate here from 15 runners, while the jockey has a 50% strike rate at Naas from only two rides. Usually held up and producing her effort late, she arrives in excellent order with recent form figures of -19131. Drawn in stall 7, the three-year-old has the KTB Fit rating of 77 and is the clear selection.
First Instinct KTB Fit 70/100
First Instinct is a smart performer who has won three times at this trip from six attempts and also holds a solid record on good ground with a win and three places from four starts. Recent form has been patchy but he arrives here off a mark that still looks competitive on the best of his ratings. Haggas has a strong 44% strike rate at Naas from nine runs, though the jockey is 0% from one ride at the track. Usually held up and producing his effort late with high confidence, the four-year-old makes his first start at Naas from draw 4 with recent form figures of 10-902.
Havana Anna KTB Fit 67/100
Havana Anna is a smart performer who has won all three starts at this track. She has solid form on good ground and has already won over today's trip, though she is stepping back up in distance after her most recent run over 5f. The yard's modest 12% strike rate at Naas from 102 runs is a slight negative, while the jockey has an 11% strike rate at the venue from 209 rides. Usually held up and producing her effort late with high confidence, the three-year-old has recent form figures of 20-147 and is drawn in stall 5.
Temperance KTB Fit 57/100
Temperance is a fair performer who has won over this trip and at this track. Recent form is ordinary and the drop back from 7f asks a fresh question. Trainer has a strong 20% strike rate at Naas from 15 runs, though the jockey is 0 from 2 here. Usually held up and producing her effort late with high confidence, the four-year-old has recent form figures of 58-607 and is drawn in stall 2.
The rest of the field
Dancing SaxonKTB Fit 54/100
Dancing Saxon is a useful performer who has shown strong form this year with three wins from his last four starts. He has placed here at Naas before but was well beaten on his other run at the track, while dropping back to 5f today asks a fresh question having last run over 7f. The Joseph Patrick O'Brien yard holds a 12% strike rate at Naas from 640 runs.
ChantezKTB Fit 53/100
Chantez is a useful performer who has run respectably at this track on both previous visits without managing to win or place. Recent form has been a bit patchy and the trip looks on the short side for him. Trainer continues in solid form at Naas with a 15 percent strike rate from a large sample.
FocacciaKTB Fit 48/100
Focaccia is a fair 3-year-old who has shown consistent placed form at this trip without winning and arrives in reasonable nick after a string of respectable efforts. He has already placed here at Naas from two runs and handles good ground, though he has yet to score at this track. The yard holds a solid 12% strike-rate at Naas from a big sample.
Treasure RoseKTB Fit 46/100
Treasure Rose is a fair performer who has been consistent this year with a string of placed efforts. She has run well at Naas before without winning and drops back to 5f today having scored at the trip earlier in her career. The trainer's modest 9% strike rate at the track is a slight negative.
KTB verdict
Soul Love stands out as the KTB Selection. A useful performer with four wins from six starts, including success on this track from a single visit, she has already won twice on good ground and looks well suited by the trip. The Burke yard's 33% strike rate at Naas adds further appeal to her claims in what is likely to be a steadily-run affair. First Instinct and Havana Anna, both smart performers with strong course or trip credentials, represent the main dangers, while Temperance could improve dropped in trip despite ordinary recent form.
KTB Selection Soul Love
This is the narrative read of the 4:00 Naas. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Naas racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has won all three of its starts at Naas?
Havana Anna has won all three starts at this track.
What is the trainer strike rate at Naas for the yard of the KTB Selection?
K. R. Burke has a 33% strike rate at Naas from 15 runs.
How many of the field are held-up types according to the run-style data?
All eight runners are described as usually held up and producing their effort late.
Which horse is stepping back up in trip after its most recent run over 5f?
Havana Anna is stepping back up in distance after her most recent run over 5f.
What does the pace shape indicate about how the race will be run?
The race lacks a leader and is likely to be a steadily-run, tactical affair where being handy pays.
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