4:45 Musselburgh
This Class 6 handicap over 1m at Musselburgh on good ground features a field of 13 limited performers, many of whom have been mixing modest form with the occasional flash of ability. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched at the top, with Hostelry heading the list on 53, followed closely by Thats My Boy Luke on 51 and a trio on 47. With little depth to the race and several runners holding placed form at the track without winning, the contest looks winnable for a horse that can capitalise on the prevailing pace shape.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape points to a lone leader with high confidence, suggesting one horse will secure an uncontested lead that could prove difficult for closers to reel in late. Thats My Boy Luke is the most likely to take up the running from his wide draw, while the bulk of the field, including the selection, prefer to be held up and produce their effort from off the pace. The key question is whether the clear leader can dictate matters throughout or if the late runners, well positioned to strike off a potentially steady gallop, can close the gap in the final furlong.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Hostelry KTB Selection53/100Limited performer who has been around a long time and mixes modest form with the occasional win.
- 2Thats My Boy Luke51/100Limited performer who has been running to a similar level all year without winning.
- 3Abu Royal47/100Limited horse who has been largely out of form this year and looks up against it again from a modest recent efforts.
- 4Serengeti Sunrise47/100Limited performer who has been well beaten on his last two starts and looks up against it from a modest overall record.
- 5Approaching Dawn47/100Limited performer who has won once from five runs at this track and also has two wins from six starts at this trip.
- 6Elizabeth Bay46/100Limited performer who has struggled this season with three poor efforts from four starts.
- 7Jewel Maker45/100Limited performer who has been out of the frame on his last four starts and looks vulnerable from a mark that still looks stiff enough.
- 8Caledonian Dream45/100Limited performer who has shown some ability here without winning, finishing placed on both previous visits to Musselburgh.
- 9Misemerald43/100Placed three times from four runs at Musselburgh and has shown consistent form in recent starts.
- 10Joshuas Dream41/100Limited performer who has struggled badly this year with three heavy defeats from his last three starts.
- 11Sievier40/100Limited horse who has shown very little in six starts and finished last on both outings this year.
- 12Bantz38/100Limited performer who has been out of the frame on all five starts this season and looks no better than modest on recent ratings.
- 13Due Respect36/100Limited performer who has shown little spark for some time and finished no better than fifth on his last six starts.
The contenders
Hostelry KTB Fit 53/100
Hostelry is a limited performer who has been around a long time and mixes modest form with the occasional win. Three placed efforts from four runs on good ground at this trip give some encouragement, as does the yard's respectable record at Musselburgh. First run here adds a small unknown but nothing more. The 9-year-old is held up and usually produces its effort late, which should suit the anticipated pace shape with a clear leader up front. Ruth Carr and Joanna Mason combine with a 13% strike rate and positive A/E of 1.05, while the trainer's 9% strike rate at the track from 287 runs adds further interest. The selection has four wins from 18 starts on good ground and recent form of 555451 that includes a latest success.
Thats My Boy Luke KTB Fit 51/100
Thats My Boy Luke is a limited performer who has been running to a similar level all year without winning. Only one success on good ground from ten starts and a modest 2-21 record at this trip suggest he will need things to fall right from a wide draw. The trainer has a solid 12% strike-rate at Musselburgh from a big sample, though the yard and jockey's combined record shows 10% winners with an A/E of 0.85. Tending to make the running or race on the pace, he is perfectly placed to take advantage of the lone-leader pace shape and could prove hard to peg back if allowed an easy time in front. Recent form of 470456 reflects his consistent but winless campaign, and the 5-year-old has one win from ten starts on good ground.
Abu Royal KTB Fit 47/100
Abu Royal is a limited horse who has been largely out of form this year and looks up against it again from modest recent efforts. The trainer has a solid 25% strike rate at Musselburgh while the jockey is operating at 11% here. He goes well enough on good ground and has won at today's trip but that was some time ago. Usually held up and producing its effort late, the 6-year-old should be suited by a race run with a clear leader up front. Recent form of 580367 underlines his current struggles, though the yard's strong record at the venue from 48 runs offers a crumb of comfort.
Serengeti Sunrise KTB Fit 47/100
Serengeti Sunrise is a limited performer who has been well beaten on his last two starts and looks up against it from a modest overall record. He steps up in trip today having failed to place in six previous attempts at this distance while showing no promise on good ground in four runs. The trainer maintains a strong 40% strike rate at Musselburgh from a small sample, and the jockey has an 11% strike rate at the track. Usually held up and producing its effort late with high confidence, the 5-year-old will hope the uncontested lead collapses late. Recent form of 0-4688 highlights his current level.
Approaching Dawn KTB Fit 47/100
Approaching Dawn is a limited performer who has won once from five runs at this track and also has two wins from six starts at this trip. He drops back in trip today having last run over 1m1f and has shown his best form on good ground with two wins and two places from eight attempts. The trainer has a 10% strike rate from 2377 runs here, and the yard and jockey combine with a 13% strike rate and A/E of 0.99. Usually held up and producing its effort late, the 6-year-old should be well suited by the pace shape. Recent form of 934185 includes a win, and he has course form that includes a victory.
The rest of the field
Elizabeth BayKTB Fit 46/100
Elizabeth Bay is a limited performer who has struggled this season with three poor efforts from four starts. She has some placed form at this track and on good ground but looks vulnerable from stall 11 dropping back in trip, with the trainer and jockey both having established but modest records here.
Jewel MakerKTB Fit 45/100
Jewel Maker is a limited performer who has been out of the frame on his last four starts and looks vulnerable from a mark that still looks stiff enough. He has placed without winning here in two runs and holds a modest 12% strike-rate for the yard at the track, with three wins at today's trip from 23 attempts as the main positive in an otherwise modest profile.
Caledonian DreamKTB Fit 45/100
Caledonian Dream is a limited performer who has shown some ability here without winning, finishing placed on both previous visits to Musselburgh. He has placed on good ground and at this trip but remains winless in 13 starts and looks modest at this level, with the trainer having no previous runners at the track.
MisemeraldKTB Fit 43/100
Misemerald has been placed three times from four runs at Musselburgh and has shown consistent form in recent starts. Limited overall ability means he usually finds at least one too good once the race gets serious, and he steps up to a new trip today which adds an unknown element.
Joshuas DreamKTB Fit 41/100
Joshuas Dream is a limited performer who has struggled badly this year with three heavy defeats from his last three starts. He steps up to 1m for the first time today which asks a fresh question of him, while the yard's record at Musselburgh shows they can place one occasionally on this track.
SievierKTB Fit 40/100
Sievier is a limited horse who has shown very little in six starts and finished last on both outings this year. He has been tried four times at this trip without placing and the small sample makes going suitability impossible to judge, with the trainer having no recorded runs at Musselburgh.
BantzKTB Fit 38/100
Bantz is a limited performer who has been out of the frame on all five starts this season and looks no better than modest on recent ratings. Only one run here resulted in a midfield finish while two efforts on good ground also failed to produce a placing, and he steps up in trip today.
Due RespectKTB Fit 36/100
Due Respect is a limited performer who has shown little spark for some time and finished no better than fifth on his last six starts. He has been beaten at this trip and on this track but has never won or placed on either, while the yard's poor record here adds little encouragement.
KTB verdict
Hostelry is named the KTB Selection and appeals as the one to beat in a race full of limited performers. His three placed efforts from four runs on good ground at this trip, allied to the yard's respectable record at Musselburgh, give him the strongest profile, and his hold-up style should be ideally suited if the lone leader sets a steady pace that collapses late. The main dangers are Thats My Boy Luke, who could prove hard to catch if allowed an easy lead from the front, and Approaching Dawn, who has won at the track and possesses solid course-and-distance form. Abu Royal and Serengeti Sunrise add further depth but both look vulnerable on recent efforts.
KTB Selection Hostelry
This is the narrative read of the 4:45 Musselburgh. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Musselburgh racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is best suited by the lone-leader pace shape?
Hostelry, who is usually held up and produces its effort late with high confidence, should be well suited if the leader goes clear.
How many wins has Hostelry recorded on good ground?
Four wins from 18 starts on good ground.
Which trainer holds the strongest strike rate at Musselburgh in this field?
R K Watson with a 40% strike rate from five runs.
Has Approaching Dawn won at this course and distance?
He has won here from five runs at the track and has two wins from six starts at this trip.
What is the Musselburgh strike rate for the trainer of Thats My Boy Luke?
12% strike rate at Musselburgh from 885 runs.
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