4:49 Navan
The 4:49 at Navan is a 1m6f GAIN The Advantage Series Handicap for three-year-olds on good to firm ground, featuring an 18-runner field where the KTB numbers highlight a modest bunch overall. Most of the principals sit in the low- to mid-50s on the Fit scale, with Essential Comedy heading the list on 59 as the clear top pick. The race marks a significant step up in trip for the majority of the field, many of whom remain unproven at the distance and on the surface, adding layers of uncertainty to an already competitive handicap.
How the race shapes up
A strong pace is anticipated with high confidence, driven by two or more habitual front-runners including Mare Crisium and Werifesteria. This sets up a race that could collapse late, placing the emphasis on those capable of coming from off the pace. With the majority of the field, including all five principals, being hold-up types, the key question is which of these patient runners can best time their effort to capitalise when the leaders fold.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Essential Comedy KTB Selection59/100Essential Comedy has shown steady rather than sparkling form in three runs, finishing a respectable third last time without suggesting she is ahead of her modes…
- 2Millhone55/100Limited sort who has shown little in nine starts yet has managed to place twice in recent runs.
- 3Chapel Island50/100Limited performer who has shown little spark in recent starts and finished eighth of 12 when tried here before.
- 4Sunrush50/100Modest performer who has shown bits of ability in maidens without looking like a major threat.
- 5Chicago Moon50/100Modest performer who has shown some ability on his better days but remains inconsistent overall.
- 6Strike De Vega49/100Modest performer who has shown little in three starts to date, finishing sixth of 12 on his only visit to this track.
- 7Cascade Canyon48/100Modest performer who has shown little consistency across six runs.
- 8Blissful Bonita46/100Modest performer who has shown some consistency lately with a string of placed efforts including one at this trip.
- 9Connecteo46/100Limited performer who has shown little since a placed effort at Down Royal in June.
- 10Mare Crisium46/100Mare Crisium is a limited performer who has shown only modest form across her seven runs, including a string of mid-division finishes this season.
- 11Parish Team46/100Modest performer who has shown very little in four starts to date.
- 12Love Orchid45/100Modest performer with a patchy record and no standout recent efforts.
- 13Werifesteria45/100Modest performer who has shown little in four starts to date and was well held when last seen.
- 14Soigne44/100Limited performer on the evidence of three runs that have produced no encouragement.
- 15Cameclose42/100Limited performer who has shown little spark in eight runs this year and was well held when eighth on his only previous visit to Navan.
- 16Chloe's Boy42/100Limited horse who has shown very little in four starts to date.
- 17Stabannon35/100Stabannon has shown very little in three starts so far and remains a limited performer on the evidence.
- 18Nando Lily33/100Limited performer who has been beaten a long way in all four starts to date.
The contenders
Essential Comedy KTB Fit 59/100
Essential Comedy has shown steady rather than sparkling form in three runs, finishing a respectable third last time without suggesting she is ahead of her modest level. She steps up to an untried 1m6f today which asks a fresh question of her stamina. The trainer's modest record at Navan offers no particular encouragement. From a kind draw in stall 4 and with a hold-up run-style that should suit the expected strong pace, she lines up as the KTB Selection. The 3 lb claimer and the yard's 1/7 record together provide a baseline, while her lack of course form and limited experience on good to firm add to the unknowns.
Millhone KTB Fit 55/100
Millhone is a limited sort who has shown little in nine starts yet has managed to place twice in recent runs. He steps up to an untried 1m6f today which asks a fresh question of him while he makes his first visit to Navan. The trainer holds a solid 17% strike rate here from 12 runs, which stands out in this field. Usually held up and producing his effort late with high confidence, his style aligns well with the likely strong pace that could collapse. He has been competitive on good to firm from one run, though the yard's 0/12 record with this jockey underlines the modest overall picture.
Chapel Island KTB Fit 50/100
Chapel Island is a limited performer who has shown little spark in recent starts and finished eighth of 12 when tried here before. He steps up markedly in trip today which asks a fresh question of a horse that has never won. The trainer holds a solid 8% strike rate at Navan from a big sample while the 3 lb claimer is still building his record at the track. Usually held up with high confidence, his late-run style should be favoured if the strong pace materialises as expected. He has been competitive without winning on good to firm from one run, though his previous effort at the course adds limited encouragement.
Sunrush KTB Fit 50/100
Sunrush is a modest performer who has shown bits of ability in maidens without looking like a major threat. He steps up to an untested 1m6f today which asks a fresh question of him. The trainer has a 6% strike rate from 202 runs at Navan. Usually held up with medium confidence, he should be suited by the race likely to be run at a strong pace that could favour those coming from off it. Unproven on good to firm ground, his lack of course form adds another layer to the unknowns surrounding this three-year-old.
Chicago Moon KTB Fit 50/100
Chicago Moon is a modest performer who has shown some ability on his better days but remains inconsistent overall. He drops back slightly in trip having failed to land a blow at 1m6½f last time and now tries headgear for the first time. The trainer has a 10% strike rate from 403 runs at Navan while the jockey's record at the track is not supplied. Usually held up with high confidence, his late-run style fits the shape of a race expected to feature a strong pace that may collapse. Unproven on good to firm, he remains without course form.
The rest of the field
Strike De VegaKTB Fit 49/100
Strike De Vega is a modest performer who has shown little in three starts to date, finishing sixth of 12 on his only visit to this track. The trainer at Navan has an 8% strike rate from 338 runs. He steps up sharply in trip today from 7f, which is an unknown for this lightly raced colt, and is usually held up.
Cascade CanyonKTB Fit 48/100
Cascade Canyon is a modest performer who has shown little consistency across six runs. He has been placed once at this trip but was well held in two runs here at Navan and is drawn wide today. The trainer records a 9% strike rate at the track from 65 runs, and he typically settles in midfield.
Blissful BonitaKTB Fit 46/100
Blissful Bonita is a modest performer who has shown some consistency lately with a string of placed efforts including one at this trip. Drawn widest of all in stall 18 which will make life harder from the back of a big field. The trainer has a solid 9% strike rate at Navan from a big sample of runners, and she is usually held up.
ConnecteoKTB Fit 46/100
Connecteo is a limited performer who has shown little since a placed effort at Down Royal in June. He steps up markedly in trip today which asks a fresh question of him. The trainer records a solid 8% strike rate from 338 runs at Navan, and he is usually held up.
Mare CrisiumKTB Fit 46/100
Mare Crisium is a limited performer who has shown only modest form across her seven runs, including a string of mid-division finishes this season. She steps up to 1m6f for the first time today after one previous run at the trip that yielded no success, so the extra distance asks a fresh question. The trainer holds a solid 12% strike rate at Navan from a big sample of 198 runs, and she tends to make the running or race on the pace.
Parish TeamKTB Fit 46/100
Parish Team is a modest performer who has shown very little in four starts to date. First-time headgear is now applied as he steps up markedly in trip to 1m6f, which asks a fresh question. The trainer has a solid 11% strike rate from 807 runs at Navan.
Love OrchidKTB Fit 45/100
Love Orchid is a modest performer with a patchy record and no standout recent efforts. She steps up to 1m6f for the first time which asks a fresh question, while the yard's solid 13% strike rate at Navan from a huge sample offers some encouragement. She remains unproven on good to firm ground and is usually held up.
WerifesteriaKTB Fit 45/100
Werifesteria is a modest performer who has shown little in four starts to date and was well held when last seen. The trainer at Navan has an 11% strike rate from 1018 runs while jockey Shane Foley has solid course experience. She steps up markedly in trip today which asks a fresh question of this lightly raced three-year-old, and she tends to make the running or race on the pace.
SoigneKTB Fit 44/100
Soigne is a limited performer on the evidence of three runs that have produced no encouragement. She steps up markedly in trip today which asks a fresh question of a horse yet to show much. The trainer has a 9% strike rate at Navan from 471 runs.
CamecloseKTB Fit 42/100
Cameclose is a limited performer who has shown little spark in eight runs this year and was well held when eighth on his only previous visit to Navan. The step up to an untested 1m6f poses a fresh question and he has already looked stretched at shorter trips. The trainer's modest 6% strike rate at the track adds little encouragement, and he is usually held up.
Chloe's BoyKTB Fit 42/100
Chloe's Boy is a limited horse who has shown very little in four starts to date. He steps up markedly in trip today with first-time headgear applied while drawn wide. The trainer's modest record at Navan adds little confidence.
StabannonKTB Fit 35/100
Stabannon has shown very little in three starts so far and remains a limited performer on the evidence. The yard's record at Navan is poor at 2% from 135 runs. Stepping up markedly in trip is a fresh question for a horse with only three runs on the board, and he is usually held up.
Nando LilyKTB Fit 33/100
Nando Lily is a limited performer who has been beaten a long way in all four starts to date. She steps up sharply in trip today which asks a fresh question of her. The trainer has a modest 5% strike rate at Navan from 65 runs, and she is usually held up.
KTB verdict
Essential Comedy heads the KTB Fit ratings and is taken as the selection in a race full of question marks. She has shown steady rather than sparkling form and now steps up markedly in trip, but her hold-up style looks ideally suited to the strong pace that is likely to unfold and potentially collapse late. The main dangers are Millhone, who has found the frame twice of late and whose trainer has a strong record at the track, and Chapel Island, whose late-run profile also fits the shape well despite limited overall spark. Chicago Moon and Sunrush round out the principals but bring their own inconsistencies and unknowns at the trip.
KTB Selection Essential Comedy
This is the narrative read of the 4:49 Navan. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Navan racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horses are likely to set the strong pace?
Mare Crisium and Werifesteria are the two habitual front-runners noted in the pace shape.
Why does the pace shape favour hold-up horses?
A strong pace with two or more front-runners is likely and could collapse late, which would favour hold-up horses.
How many of the principals are hold-up types?
All five principals — Essential Comedy, Millhone, Chapel Island, Sunrush and Chicago Moon — are usually held up.
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at Navan among the principals?
Charles Weld has a 17% strike rate at Navan from 12 runs with Millhone.
Which horse is having its first run in headgear?
Chicago Moon is trying headgear for the first time.
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