5:24 Navan
A 26-runner handicap over 1m6f on good to firm ground at Navan provides a wide-open-looking contest in which the KTB numbers identify only modest levels of ability across the field. The top five in the KTB Fit ranking are separated by just 11 points, underlining how little separates many of these limited performers. With most runners unproven on the surface and several stepping up markedly in trip, the race poses multiple questions of stamina, ground suitability and course form.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape points to a lone leader with little to pressure it, suggesting an uncontested lead that could prove difficult for closers to reel in. Kevin The Great is the only confirmed front-runner in the field and is likely to take them along from stall one, while the prominent-running Desert Friend could track him. The remainder, including the selection, are almost all held-up types who will be looking to produce their efforts from off the pace, so the key question is whether the clear leader can maintain the advantage all the way to the line or if any of the closers will be able to bridge the gap on this stiff stamina test.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Mystic Rose KTB Selection59/100Mystic Rose is a limited performer who has shown little spark this year and finished no better than fifth on three previous runs at Navan.
- 2Cala Gracioneta56/100Limited performer who has failed to place in two runs at Navan and looks up against it from stall 17.
- 3Makaiah53/100Modest performer who won here over further last season but has been below that level this year.
- 4Miss Crinshawn49/100Modest performer who has been consistent enough in recent starts without winning, finishing placed three times from her last six runs.
- 5Arcland48/100Arcland is a limited handicapper who has run well here in the past with one win from 13 visits to Navan.
- 6Jazz Forever48/100Jazz Forever is a limited performer who has shown the odd flash of ability but has been below form on his last two starts.
- 7Kevin The Great48/100Limited performer who has shown little spark in recent starts and looks stretched by this longer trip for the first time.
- 8Miss Australie47/100Limited performer who has shown little in recent starts and was well beaten on her only previous visit to Navan.
- 9Eastern Blue Bird47/100Limited performer who has shown very little in recent starts and steps up markedly in trip today.
- 10Anightaway47/100Limited performer who has struggled at this track, finishing no better than eighth in three runs here.
- 11Deluca Chop46/100Limited performer who has won once from two starts at Navan and arrives in decent form after two wins in the last month.
- 12Ms Messi46/100Ms Messi has shown modest form at best with a recent third over 1m4.5f but remains a limited performer overall according to the ratings.
- 13Phidias Ovation46/100Phidias Ovation is a limited performer on the evidence of six runs and recent form that reads 8-0700.
- 14Stepdance45/100Limited performer who has won twice on the all-weather but has struggled on turf this year, finishing no better than ninth in three starts.
- 15Piatra Neamt45/100Limited performer who has shown very little in ten starts and was well held when sixth of 23 over C&D on his only visit to Navan.
- 16Lariat43/100Lariat is a limited performer who has been on the go for years and rarely wins.
- 17Desert Friend43/100Desert Friend is a limited performer who has been inconsistent this year with a recent form line of 919044.
- 18Macinamillion42/100Macinamillion has shown very little since a placed effort on debut and remains a limited performer on the balance of his form.
- 19Maxwell Smart40/100Limited performer who has been placed once in nine runs at Navan without winning.
- 20Without Love40/100Without Love is a limited performer who has been consistent enough to place twice from his last four starts without winning.
- 21Share The Treasure39/100Limited performer who has won once here over this trip from just two runs at Navan.
- 22Miners Cabin39/100Limited sort who has struggled badly this year and showed little in nine starts.
- 23Eastern Wind38/100Eastern Wind is a limited performer who has shown little at this track in five runs and is now dropping back from a much longer trip.
- 24Plus Or Minus36/100Limited horse who has struggled to make an impact in nine starts and arrives here in modest form.
- 25Folk Warrior31/100Limited performer who has shown only modest form at best on his last few starts.
- 26Highway Sixty One30/100Limited performer who has struggled to make an impact this year and finished well down the field on his only previous run at Navan.
The contenders
Mystic Rose KTB Fit 59/100
Mystic Rose is a limited performer who has shown little spark this year and finished no better than fifth on three previous runs at Navan. The yard has a solid 11% strike-rate here from 55 runs yet she remains unproven on good to firm ground and steps up in trip today having failed to make the frame in four previous attempts at this distance. High data confidence but the overall profile is modest at best. Usually held up and producing her effort late, she will need the uncontested lead to come back to her in the closing stages if she is to feature. Reese Holohan takes the ride with a 14% strike rate at the track and an A/E of 1.54 from seven rides.
Cala Gracioneta KTB Fit 56/100
Cala Gracioneta is a limited performer who has failed to place in two runs at Navan and looks up against it from stall 17. She drops back from 2m to 1m6f having shown nothing at the shorter trip previously. The trainer records a 9% strike rate here from 140 runs while the horse remains unproven on good to firm ground. Usually held up with high confidence in that run-style, she will be giving the expected lone leader a significant start. Robbie Colgan is on board with the pair showing an 8% strike rate together from 136 runs and an A/E of 1.19.
Makaiah KTB Fit 53/100
Makaiah is a modest performer who won here over further last season but has been below that level this year. He drops back to 1m6f where he has placed twice without winning, though he is unproven on good to firm ground. The trainer's modest 7% strike rate at Navan adds little confidence. Usually held up, he will be aiming to come from off the pace in a race where the leader may not come back. Shane Foley rides for a trainer-jockey combination that has a 10% strike rate from 223 runs and an A/E of 0.80.
Miss Crinshawn KTB Fit 49/100
Miss Crinshawn is a modest performer who has been consistent enough in recent starts without winning, finishing placed three times from her last six runs. The trainer at Navan shows a modest 6% strike rate from 141 runs while the yard is sending her here for a first appearance at the track. She steps up markedly in trip today with no previous experience of good to firm ground so both stamina and surface remain untested questions. Usually held up with high confidence, she is drawn low in stall two which could be an advantage if she can be positioned to strike late.
Arcland KTB Fit 48/100
Arcland is a limited handicapper who has run well here in the past with one win from 13 visits to Navan. He arrives in decent nick having been placed on his last three completed starts and has solid placed form at this trip from six attempts. The yard has a modest 9% strike rate at the track while the horse himself is 0-3 on good to firm ground. Usually held up, the ten-year-old will be towards the rear early but his course record and recent placed efforts mean he cannot be entirely dismissed.
The rest of the field
Jazz ForeverKTB Fit 48/100
Jazz Forever is a limited performer who has shown the odd flash of ability but has been below form on his last two starts. He has placed here without winning from four runs at Navan and steps up markedly in trip today having last run over 1m2f. The trainer has a modest 6% strike rate at the track while the horse remains unproven on good to firm ground.
Kevin The GreatKTB Fit 48/100
Kevin The Great is a limited performer who has shown little spark in recent starts and looks stretched by this longer trip for the first time. He has posted three respectable efforts at Navan without winning and the yard's modest 9% strike rate here adds little confidence. Unproven on good to firm ground is another unknown. He is the only confirmed front-runner and is likely to take the field along.
Miss AustralieKTB Fit 47/100
Miss Australie is a limited performer who has shown little in recent starts and was well beaten on her only previous visit to Navan. She steps up markedly in trip today with no strong pedigree clues to suggest the extra distance will help, while the trainer's modest 5% strike rate at the track adds little encouragement. The filly remains unproven on good to firm ground.
Eastern Blue BirdKTB Fit 47/100
Eastern Blue Bird is a limited performer who has shown very little in recent starts and steps up markedly in trip today. The yard's modest 5% strike rate at Navan from a large sample offers no encouragement while the horse remains unproven on good to firm ground.
AnightawayKTB Fit 47/100
Anightaway is a limited performer who has struggled at this track, finishing no better than eighth in three runs here. She steps up to 1m6f having won at the trip in the past, though the move to good to firm ground is an unknown. The trainer has a 0% strike rate from 13 runs at Navan.
Deluca ChopKTB Fit 46/100
Deluca Chop is a limited performer who has won once from two starts at Navan and arrives in decent form after two wins in the last month. He steps up to 1m6f for the first time today having been unsuccessful in his only previous try at the trip. The trainer records a modest 4% strike-rate here from 47 runs while the horse remains unproven on good to firm ground.
Ms MessiKTB Fit 46/100
Ms Messi has shown modest form at best with a recent third over 1m4.5f but remains a limited performer overall according to the ratings. She steps up in trip today which asks a fresh question while making her first visit to Navan. The trainer operates at a 6% strike rate here from 213 runs and she is unproven on good to firm ground.
Phidias OvationKTB Fit 46/100
Phidias Ovation is a limited performer on the evidence of six runs and recent form that reads 8-0700. He steps up markedly in trip today to 1m6f having last been seen over 1m2½f so the new distance is an unknown. The trainer has no recorded runs at Navan while the small sample means going suitability cannot be judged.
StepdanceKTB Fit 45/100
Stepdance is a limited performer who has won twice on the all-weather but has struggled on turf this year, finishing no better than ninth in three starts. She has run twice at Navan without placing and steps up to an unproven 1m6f today. The trainer has a 10% strike rate at the track from 403 runs while the horse remains unproven on good to firm ground.
Piatra NeamtKTB Fit 45/100
Piatra Neamt is a limited performer who has shown very little in ten starts and was well held when sixth of 23 over C&D on his only visit to Navan. He steps up in trip again today having failed to make an impact at 1m5½f last time. The trainer operates at a 4% strike rate here from 47 runs while the horse remains unproven on good to firm.
LariatKTB Fit 43/100
Lariat is a limited performer who has been on the go for years and rarely wins. He has shown the odd bit of placed form at Navan without ever looking like taking a race here, and he has only one run on good to firm ground so that side remains unproven. Dropping back from 2m to a trip he has won at before is the main positive.
Desert FriendKTB Fit 43/100
Desert Friend is a limited performer who has been inconsistent this year with a recent form line of 919044. He has placed once from four runs at Navan but the trainer is still winless from 32 attempts at the track. He drops back to a trip he has won at before although he remains unproven on good to firm ground. Usually races prominently and could track the expected leader.
MacinamillionKTB Fit 42/100
Macinamillion has shown very little since a placed effort on debut and remains a limited performer on the balance of his form. He has placed over today's trip in the past but steps back up in distance from a recent 1m run while having no experience of good to firm ground. The yard has failed to strike at Navan from eight attempts and this one starts from a wide draw in stall 23.
Maxwell SmartKTB Fit 40/100
Maxwell Smart is a limited performer who has been placed once in nine runs at Navan without winning. He steps up in trip today having been placed at this distance on three of nine attempts, though he has never tackled good to firm ground. The trainer's modest 3% strike rate from 511 runs at the track adds to the negatives.
Without LoveKTB Fit 40/100
Without Love is a limited performer who has been consistent enough to place twice from his last four starts without winning. He steps up in trip again today having already failed to land a blow at this distance last time, and he has no experience of good to firm ground. The trainer has a 0% strike rate from five runs at Navan.
Share The TreasureKTB Fit 39/100
Share The Treasure is a limited performer who has won once here over this trip from just two runs at Navan. Recent form is ordinary and he has failed to place in two runs on good to firm ground. The trainer's modest 6% strike rate at the track adds little encouragement.
Miners CabinKTB Fit 39/100
Miners Cabin is a limited sort who has struggled badly this year and showed little in nine starts. First-time headgear is reached for as he steps up to 1m6f for the first time, a trip he has tried once without success. The trainer records a 9% strike rate at Navan from 65 runs while the horse remains unproven on good to firm ground.
Eastern WindKTB Fit 38/100
Eastern Wind is a limited performer who has shown little at this track in five runs and is now dropping back from a much longer trip. He has placed once at this distance but is unproven on good to firm ground. The trainer's modest 3% strike rate from 511 runs at Navan adds to the negatives.
Plus Or MinusKTB Fit 36/100
Plus Or Minus is a limited horse who has struggled to make an impact in nine starts and arrives here in modest form. First-time headgear is tried as he steps up in trip having shown little at 1m5½f last time. The trainer's modest 5% strike rate at Navan adds to the negatives on ground he has never tackled.
Folk WarriorKTB Fit 31/100
Folk Warrior is a limited performer who has shown only modest form at best on his last few starts. He drops back from 2m to a trip he has never tried while making his first visit to Navan on ground he has never encountered. The trainer's modest record here adds no confidence.
Highway Sixty OneKTB Fit 30/100
Highway Sixty One is a limited performer who has struggled to make an impact this year and finished well down the field on his only previous run at Navan. The trainer's poor record here adds to the negatives while the drop back from 2m to an untried 1m6f asks a fresh question. No experience on good to firm ground makes him hard to assess with any confidence today.
KTB verdict
Mystic Rose is the KTB Selection. She is a limited performer who has shown little spark this year yet the data confidence is high thanks to the yard's solid record at Navan and the jockey's positive figures at the track. The step up in trip is a concern having failed to make the frame in four previous attempts at the distance and she remains unproven on good to firm ground, but in a race where the majority of the field share similar limitations she is just preferred. The main dangers are Arcland, who has run well here in the past and arrives in decent nick, and Miss Crinshawn, who has been consistently placed of late despite the trip and ground unknowns.
KTB Selection Mystic Rose
This is the narrative read of the 5:24 Navan. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Navan racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is most likely to take the uncontested lead?
Kevin The Great is the only confirmed front-runner in the field and tends to make the running or race on the pace.
How many of the field are proven on good to firm ground?
Only Arcland with three runs, Lariat with one run, Share The Treasure with two runs and no others have experience of the surface.
Which runners have previous winning form at Navan?
Makaiah, Arcland, Deluca Chop, Share The Treasure and Maxwell Smart have all won at the track.
Which horse is stepping up most markedly in trip?
Several including Miss Crinshawn, Jazz Forever, Miss Australie, Eastern Blue Bird, Phidias Ovation, Stepdance and Miners Cabin are stepping up markedly in trip.
How many principals are held up in running?
All five principals — Mystic Rose, Cala Gracioneta, Makaiah, Miss Crinshawn and Arcland — are usually held up.
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