2:00 Carlisle
This Class 5 novice flat amateur jockeys' handicap over 1m1f at Carlisle on good ground features a field of nine modest performers. The KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched at the top, with Up The Jazz heading the list on 61, followed by Spirit Catcher and Sanafi Zabeel both on 55 and Pedro The Poet on 54. With several hold-up performers in the line-up and two confirmed front-runners, the pace shape is expected to be strongly run and could set things up for those coming from off the pace.
How the race shapes up
A strong pace is anticipated given the presence of two habitual front-runners in Sanafi Zabeel and On The Bubble. The race is therefore likely to be contested at a keen gallop early on, with the possibility of the leaders coming back to the field in the closing stages. This shape poses the key question of whether any of the prominent runners can sustain their effort or if the race will fall into the lap of the hold-up horses, of which there are several including the selection.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Up The Jazz KTB Selection61/100Modest performer who has won over this trip and showed a liking for the track when scoring here from one visit.
- 2Spirit Catcher55/100Modest performer who has been consistent enough this year without winning, finishing second three times from his last six starts.
- 3Sanafi Zabeel55/100Modest performer who has been in and out of form this year and is making his first visit to Carlisle.
- 4Pedro The Poet54/100Modest performer who has shown little spark in five starts this year.
- 5Epidavros51/100Epidavros is a modest performer who has been consistent without winning lately, finishing no worse than fourth in six runs this year.
- 6Titian49/100Modest performer who has been out of form for some time with a string of modest efforts.
- 7Jewel Maker48/100Jewel Maker is a limited performer on balance and has been on the go a long time.
- 8Eagles Dream47/100Limited performer who has struggled this year and finished no better than eighth on his only previous visit to Carlisle.
- 9On The Bubble45/100Limited horse who has shown only modest form this year and was well held over 1m4f last time.
The contenders
Up The Jazz KTB Fit 61/100
Up The Jazz is a modest performer who has won over this trip and showed a liking for the track when scoring here from one visit. Recent form has been a bit up and down but the figures still stack up in this grade and the Fahey yard has a solid 13% strike rate at Carlisle with an A/E of 1 from 23 runs. The five-year-old is usually held up and produces its effort late, which could be ideal given the expected strong pace. It steps up from a mile today with a 3lb claimer aboard in the shape of Miss Isla Clarkson, whose record at Carlisle is neutral. With a course win already on its record and two wins from 14 starts on good ground, this looks a suitable opportunity.
Spirit Catcher KTB Fit 55/100
Spirit Catcher is a modest performer who has been consistent enough this year without winning, finishing second three times from his last six starts. The seven-year-old drops back to a trip he has won at before while the Kirby yard holds a solid 10% strike-rate at Carlisle from 247 runs with an A/E of 1. Usually held up and producing its effort late, he should be suited by the anticipated strong pace. He acts on good ground with two wins from 16 starts but has been below form on his last two outings. No course form on record but the overall profile suggests he can be competitive in this field.
Sanafi Zabeel KTB Fit 55/100
Sanafi Zabeel is a modest performer who has been in and out of form this year and is making his first visit to Carlisle. He has a solid record on good ground with one win from six starts and has won twice at today's trip, though the step up from his most recent run asks a fresh question. The five-year-old tends to make the running or race on the pace, which will be interesting given the strong pace shape. Jim Goldie has a 10% strike-rate at Carlisle from 328 runs with an A/E of 0.92, and he teams up with Miss Kayleigh Williams who is 0 from 1 at the track. The combination of front-running style and trip suitability makes him one to consider.
Pedro The Poet KTB Fit 54/100
Pedro The Poet is a modest performer who has shown little spark in five starts this year. The five-year-old drops back to 1m1f having last run over 1m2½f, which poses a fresh question. Nicky Richards has a solid 22% strike rate at Carlisle from 505 runs with an A/E of 1.18, teaming up with Mr Harvey James whose record at the track is neutral. Usually held up and producing its effort late, he could be favoured by the expected strong pace. No course form on record and unproven on good ground, but the trainer's record at the venue offers some hope.
The rest of the field
EpidavrosKTB Fit 51/100
Epidavros is a modest performer who has been consistent without winning lately, finishing no worse than fourth in six runs this year. He has won over today's trip and at Carlisle with one win from three starts here, though the trainer's 4% strike rate from 107 runs is poor.
TitianKTB Fit 49/100
Titian is a modest performer who has been out of form for some time with a string of modest efforts. Dropping back in trip to 1m1f where he is 0-3 but has been placed once, he acts on good ground with one win and two places from four starts.
Jewel MakerKTB Fit 48/100
Jewel Maker is a limited performer on balance and has been on the go a long time. He has won once in seven runs at Carlisle and steps up in trip today having been placed without winning at this distance in the past.
Eagles DreamKTB Fit 47/100
Eagles Dream is a limited performer who has struggled this year and finished no better than eighth on his only previous visit to Carlisle. Dropping back in trip to 1m1f where he has placed once without winning.
On The BubbleKTB Fit 45/100
On The Bubble is a limited horse who has shown only modest form this year and was well held over 1m4f last time. Dropping back to a trip at which he has placed without winning, he tends to make the running or race on the pace.
KTB verdict
Up The Jazz looks to hold the strongest claims in a race where the strong pace is likely to play a significant role. The selection has already shown a liking for this track with a win from a single visit, and his figures remain competitive in this grade for a yard that performs well at Carlisle. His hold-up style should be perfectly suited to the shape of the race. Spirit Catcher and Sanafi Zabeel are the most obvious dangers, the former for his consistency and the latter for his front-running profile and trip record, while Pedro The Poet cannot be entirely dismissed given the Richards yard's excellent record at the venue.
KTB Selection Up The Jazz
This is the narrative read of the 2:00 Carlisle. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Carlisle racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has already won over the course and distance combination?
Up The Jazz has won here from one visit over this trip.
How many front-runners are in the field and who are they?
There are two front-runners: Sanafi Zabeel and On The Bubble.
Which trainer has the highest strike rate at Carlisle in this field?
Nicky Richards has a 22% strike rate at Carlisle from 505 runs.
Which horse is stepping up in trip from its most recent run?
Jewel Maker is stepping up in trip today.
How many hold-up horses feature in the race?
There are seven hold-up horses: Up The Jazz, Spirit Catcher, Pedro The Poet, Epidavros, Titian, Jewel Maker and Eagles Dream.
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