5:13 Thirsk
This Class 4 handicap over 1m6f at Thirsk features a field of seven where the KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top end, with the selection on 55 and the next three all on 53 or 49. The race is run on good ground and the numbers suggest a competitive renewal in which recent consistency, trip suitability and yard form at the venue will all come into play. Overall the KTB assessments point to a race that could be decided by how the strong pace unfolds, with hold-up types potentially advantaged if the front-runners go too hard.
How the race shapes up
With two or more habitual front-runners declared, a strong pace is anticipated and confidence in that shape is high. Sax Appeal and Mick Collins both tend to make the running or race prominently, which sets up the possibility of the pace collapsing in the final furlong or two. That scenario would play into the hands of hold-up horses such as Talismans Time and Arrange, who are both noted for producing their effort late. The key question is whether the prominent runners can dictate matters on their own terms or if the race will fall apart late to suit those coming from off the pace.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Pinatique KTB Selection55/100Fair performer who showed a bit more when fourth on return at this track over 1m4f.
- 2Sax Appeal53/100Sax Appeal is a fair performer who has been consistent of late with three placed efforts from his last four starts.
- 3Talismans Time53/100Talismans Time is a fair performer who has shown consistent placed form at this trip on good ground.
- 4Mick Collins49/100Fair performer who showed fair form when winning at this trip on good ground last year before a lengthy break.
- 5Sudu48/100Fair performer who showed useful form when winning over 1m4f last year but has been below that level on both starts this season.
- 6Hamadhan48/100Hamadhan is a fair performer with a solid recent record of 63-753 that includes placed efforts at this level.
- 7Arrange42/100Modest performer who has been placed on his last three starts and has won over today's trip.
The contenders
Pinatique KTB Fit 55/100
Pinatique is a fair performer who showed a bit more when finishing fourth on his return at this track over 1m4f. He now steps up in trip for a yard that boasts a 23% strike rate at Thirsk from 126 runs, a solid pointer in itself. Only six career starts mean going suitability on good ground remains something of an unknown, yet the return effort offers encouragement. Luke Morris takes the ride for Sir Mark Prescott, whose overall trainer-jockey record stands at 478 wins from 2585 rides. Drawn in stall one, he has the potential to improve for the extra distance if the strong pace materialises as expected. The market will take a view in a field of seven.
Sax Appeal KTB Fit 53/100
Sax Appeal is a fair performer who has been consistent of late, registering three placed efforts from his last four starts. He has run well at Thirsk without winning, finishing second and third from two attempts at the track, and he has also shown he handles good ground with one win and a placing from five runs on the surface. Dropping back from 2m today poses a fresh question at a trip where he is yet to score in five attempts. A habitual front-runner who tends to make the running or race on the pace, he could set a strong gallop that may ultimately play into the hands of hold-up types. The Charlie Johnston and Callum Shepherd combination has a 14% strike rate together.
Talismans Time KTB Fit 53/100
Talismans Time is a fair performer who has shown consistent placed form at this trip on good ground. He has won once and been placed twice from four runs on this surface and finished third of six last time out. The Edward Bethell yard holds a 13% strike rate at Thirsk from 72 runs and the 5 lb claimer Cian Horgan takes the ride on a horse making its first start here. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he looks ideally suited to the expected strong pace that could collapse in the straight. With a Fit score matching the second principal, he enters calculations as a dangerous each-way contender on the balance of his good-ground record.
Mick Collins KTB Fit 49/100
Mick Collins is a fair performer who showed fair form when winning at this trip on good ground last year before a lengthy break. He looked stretched at 1m4½f on his return and now steps back up in distance while making his first visit to Thirsk. The Martin Todhunter yard has a 7% strike rate here from 58 runs and David Nolan is aboard. Another who tends to make the running or race on the pace, he is likely to be prominent in a race where the pace is forecast to be strong. With one win and five places from eight runs on good ground he has the surface in his favour, though the lack of a recent run adds an element of risk.
The rest of the field
SuduKTB Fit 48/100
Sudu is a fair performer who showed useful form when winning over 1m4f last year but has been below that level on both starts this season. He steps up in trip for the first time today which asks a fresh question. Roger Varian has a solid 21% strike rate at Thirsk while Ray Dawson's 5% record at the track is more modest.
HamadhanKTB Fit 48/100
Hamadhan is a fair performer with a solid recent record of 63-753 that includes placed efforts at this level. He steps up in trip to 1m6f for the first time today which asks a fresh question of him. Jennie Candlish has a 9% strike rate from 33 runs at Thirsk while Jason Hart is operating at 9% from 465 rides here.
ArrangeKTB Fit 42/100
Arrange is a modest performer who has been placed on his last three starts and has won over today's trip. He has shown up well at Thirsk before, finishing third on one of his three runs here, though he remains winless at the track. Martin Todhunter holds a 7% strike rate from 58 runs at Thirsk.
KTB verdict
Pinatique is the KTB selection. A fair performer who showed a bit more when fourth on his return at this track over 1m4f, he now steps up in trip for a yard with a strong 23% strike rate at Thirsk. The selection has the scope to improve for the extra distance in a race where the strong pace is likely to test those racing prominently. Sax Appeal brings the strongest recent consistency and course form, while Talismans Time is well suited to the shape as a hold-up performer with solid placed form on good ground. Mick Collins cannot be dismissed if he can rediscover his winning form from last season.
KTB Selection Pinatique
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:01 UTC, 28 Aug. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Pinatique | 5/4 | 7Bet |
| Sax Appeal | 17/2 | Bet365 |
| Talismans Time | 9/2 | 7Bet |
| Mick Collins | 16/1 | Bet365 |
| Sudu | 4/1 | 7Bet |
| Hamadhan | 22/1 | Bet365 |
| Arrange | 6/1 | Bet365 |
This is the narrative read of the 5:13 Thirsk. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Thirsk racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is best suited to a strong pace that may collapse late?
Talismans Time and Arrange, both noted as hold-up types who produce their effort late.
What is Sir Mark Prescott's strike rate at Thirsk?
23% from 126 runs with an A/E of 1.05.
How many placed efforts has Sax Appeal recorded from his last four starts?
Three placed efforts.
Which principals are front-runners likely to set the strong pace?
Sax Appeal and Mick Collins both tend to make the running or race on the pace.
What is Talismans Time's record on good ground?
One win from four runs on good with two places.
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