5:02 Bath
This Class 4 British EBF Fillies' Handicap over 1m3f137y at Bath on good ground features a compact field of six. The KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched at the top, with Aravalli and Pierian both on 57, followed by Spirit Of Jura on 51 and Quebella on 49. The race is notable for a strong pace likely to be set by multiple front-runners, which according to the KTB numbers could play into the hands of those with late kick.
How the race shapes up
With two or more habitual front-runners in the line-up the pace shape is expected to be strong, and the confidence in that view is high. Asset, Pierian and Spirit Of Jura are all inclined to race prominently or make the running, which raises the strong possibility that the early fractions will be demanding and the race could collapse in the final furlong. That scenario would clearly favour the hold-up performers such as Aravalli, Quebella and Mythical Bird, making the ability to settle and deliver late the key question the race poses.
The KTB Fit ranking
-
1Aravalli57/100
Aravalli is a fair performer who has won three of her four starts at this trip and arrives in excellent form having scored four times from six runs this year. She steps up in class and makes her first visit to Bath while remaining unproven on good ground, though the yard's solid 12% strike-rate at the track from 81 runs offers some encouragement. Taylor Fisher takes the ride with a 12% strike-rate at Bath from 127 rides. Usually held up and producing her effort late, she is drawn in stall six. The KTB Fit score reads 57.
-
2Pierian KTB Selection57/100
Pierian is a fair performer who has already won at this trip and showed his best form when landing a couple of handicaps earlier this season. He ran poorly last time but is back dropping in class on a track where the yard has a solid 19% strike-rate from 145 runs and the going suits, with one win from two starts on good. Stall one could be an advantage if he settles early given his tendency to make the running or race on the pace. Tom Marquand is in the saddle with an 18% strike-rate at Bath from 240 rides. The KTB Fit score reads 57 and he is the KTB Selection.
-
3Spirit Of Jura51/100
Spirit Of Jura is a fair performer who has been consistent without winning lately, placing in two of his last three starts at this trip. He acts on good ground with a win and two places from four runs, and the Charlie Johnston yard has a strong 26% strike-rate at Bath from 27 runs. Callum Shepherd takes the mount with a 10% strike-rate at the track from 152 rides. A habitual front-runner who tends to make the running or race on the pace, he is drawn in stall three. The KTB Fit score reads 51.
-
4Quebella49/100
Quebella is a fair performer who has shown consistent placed form of late, finishing third in both starts this year. She steps up in trip for the first time today having already been placed without winning at this distance, while her record on good ground reads a solid but winless placed effort from two runs. The Owen Burrows yard has an 18% strike-rate at Bath from 22 runs and Jamie Spencer is aboard with an 18% strike-rate at the track from 156 rides. Usually held up and producing her effort late, she is drawn in stall five. The KTB Fit score reads 49.
-
5Asset45/100
Asset is a fair 3-year-old with solid recent form that includes two wins and three placings from six starts. He steps up in trip today to a distance he has never tried, which asks a fresh question of him. Sir Mark Prescott has a 28% strike-rate at Bath from 197 runs while Luke Morris is aboard. The KTB Fit score reads 45.
-
6Mythical Bird38/100
Mythical Bird is a fair performer who has shown a mixed bag this year with three wins from 16 starts but also several poor efforts. He steps up in trip for the first time today having never tried beyond 1m2f, which asks a fresh question of him. The yard has an 11% strike-rate at Bath from 235 runs while the horse has no previous experience here and is 0-2 on good ground. The KTB Fit score reads 38.
KTB verdict
The strong pace anticipated makes this an interesting puzzle, with hold-up types potentially advantaged if the front-runners overdo it. Pierian is the KTB Selection. He has already won at this trip, showed his best form when landing a couple of handicaps earlier this season, drops in class with the yard in solid form at the track and the going in his favour, while stall one could help him settle on the pace. Aravalli, in excellent form with four wins from six runs this year and three victories from four starts at the trip, is the obvious danger from off the pace, while Spirit Of Jura's consistency and the yard's excellent Bath record also demand respect.
KTB Selection Pierian
This is the narrative read of the 5:02 Bath. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Bath racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Bath results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is unproven on good ground but has the benefit of a yard with a 12% strike-rate at Bath?
Aravalli
Which runner is dropping in class, has a win at this trip and could benefit from stall one?
Pierian
Which horse has a strong 26% trainer strike-rate at Bath and has placed in two of his last three starts at this trip?
Spirit Of Jura
Which filly steps up in trip for the first time having been placed without winning at the distance and has a placed effort from two runs on good ground?
Quebella
Which 3-year-old with two wins and three placings from six starts is stepping up in trip for the first time?
Asset
18+. Analysis and entertainment only — no guarantee of profit. KTB race previews are published for interest and are not betting advice. Only ever stake what you can comfortably afford to lose, and set your own limits. Free, confidential help: the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133 (GamCare.org.uk); in Ireland, the GamblingCare.ie helpline on 1800 936 725. Self-exclude at any time via GAMSTOP.
More from Kickthebookies