7:00 Kempton (AW)
This Class 3 Unibet/EBF Novice Stakes over 1m2f219y at Kempton on standard to slow ground brings together a small but interesting field of six. Two principals share the top KTB Fit Score of 55, one a Godolphin debut winner over the course and distance and the other a dual winner who also scored here on debut. The pace shape is described as tentative with medium confidence, and the KTB numbers point to a race where experience and course knowledge could prove decisive.
How the race shapes up
With only tentative evidence on pace, the race is expected to be run at a modest gallop. Fortitudine is the only confirmed front-runner and could take them along from draw one, while the other five are all held-up types who will be looking to produce their efforts late. The key question is whether the early pace will be sufficient to stretch the field or if the race will turn into a sprint for the line in the straight.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Fortitudine55/100
Fortitudine made a winning debut here over today's trip on his only start to date. The Godolphin colt showed enough to suggest he is above average for the yard and his 1-1 course record at Kempton adds confidence. Trainer Charlie Appleby posts a 32% strike rate at the track from a large sample while William Buick takes the ride. He is drawn in stall one which should allow him to make the running or race prominently. The colt remains unproven on standard to slow ground but his debut success came at this venue and the KTB Fit Score of 55 places him right at the top of the ratings.
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2Shadow Road KTB Selection55/100
Shadow Road showed plenty when winning on debut here over this trip and has since added a handicap success on turf. The form of that Kempton win looks ordinary and the small sample means his true level is still unclear. Trainer John Butler has a 10% strike rate at the track from a large sample of 822 runs while David Egan is in the saddle. He is a held-up type who usually produces his effort late and has a course win on his record. The KTB Fit Score of 55 matches the top rating in the race and the selection has the benefit of prior course-and-distance experience in what remains a tentative pace race.
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3Roxy Power51/100
Roxy Power is a debutant with no racecourse experience. The Simon & Ed Crisford yard has a solid 19% strike rate at Kempton from 255 runs and Silvestre De Sousa takes the ride. By Justify, he has a 13% overall win rate associated with his sire from 1099 runners. There is no course win on record and the overall picture remains light on hard data. The KTB Fit Score of 51 keeps him firmly in the conversation as a potential threat if the Crisford team have found one ready to go on debut.
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4No Ordinary Joe46/100
No Ordinary Joe has a modest recent effort behind him and is 0-1 both at this trip and at Kempton. The yard holds a solid 12% strike rate here from a decent sample of 102 runs, yet this 10-year-old remains unproven on standard to slow ground and has never won or placed in 32 starts this year. A held-up performer with high-confidence run-style data, he finished ninth on his sole previous visit to the track. Data confidence is only medium so some of the picture is still missing and the KTB Fit Score of 46 reflects a modest profile at this level.
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5Brave Hunter46/100
Brave Hunter is a fair performer who has shown steady placed form without winning. He drops back in trip to a distance he has never tried while wearing first-time headgear, both fresh questions. The trainer has a 0% strike rate from 10 runs at Kempton and the KTB Fit Score is 46.
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6Anchor42/100
Anchor showed little on his sole visit here when finishing 12th and has been beaten on his only attempt at this trip. The yard has a 0% strike rate from 25 runs at Kempton. First-time headgear is now applied to a horse with only two career starts and the KTB Fit Score is 42.
KTB verdict
The KTB Selection is Shadow Road. He showed plenty when winning on debut here over this trip before adding a handicap success on turf, and the course win on his record is a significant plus in a race where the pace shape is only tentative. Fortitudine is the obvious main danger having won on debut over course and distance for a powerful yard with strong Kempton statistics, while Roxy Power is an interesting debutant from the Crisford team. No Ordinary Joe and the two outsiders look up against it on the balance of the KTB numbers.
KTB Selection Shadow Road
This is the narrative read of the 7:00 Kempton (AW). For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Kempton (AW) racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Kempton (AW) results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has already won over the course and distance?
Both Fortitudine and Shadow Road have a win here over today's trip.
How many course wins does the selection have at Kempton?
Shadow Road has a course win on his record from one visit.
What is the trainer strike rate at Kempton for the yard of the top-rated horse?
Charlie Appleby has a 32% strike rate at Kempton (AW) from 579 runs.
Which runner is wearing first-time headgear?
Both Brave Hunter and Anchor are wearing first-time headgear.
What is the run-style of the selection Shadow Road?
Held up — usually held up and produces its effort late.
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