2:05 Haydock
This Class 3 EBF Novice Stakes over 7f 212y at Haydock on soft ground brings together nine two-year-olds with limited racecourse evidence between them. The KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched at the top, headed by debutant Sir Terry Hadley on 56, with Burning Up, Hands To Yourself and Under Arrest all within a few points. Trainer and jockey course statistics are generally positive across the principals, yet the overall lack of experience and the soft surface add layers of uncertainty to the contest.
How the race shapes up
With the pace shape rated unclear and low confidence in the available run-style data, it is difficult to forecast how the race will unfold. Several runners are debutants without established patterns, while Under Arrest is noted as usually held up and producing his effort late. The key question is whether any horse can impose early or whether the race will develop into a more tactical affair in which the closers are advantaged on this soft surface.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Sir Terry Hadley KTB Selection56/100
Sir Terry Hadley is a debutant with no racecourse experience, so the pedigree and sales background are the only clues available and the low data confidence means any conclusions are tentative. Trainer Charlie Johnston has a solid 12% strike-rate at Haydock from 102 runs while jockey Callum Shepherd posts a stronger 18% record from 84 rides here. The colt is by Baaeed, a sire with a 22% overall win rate from just nine runners. Connections will be hoping the son of a high-class performer can translate that potential into a competitive debut performance on soft ground.
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2Burning Up52/100
Burning Up made a winning start here over this trip on debut and therefore holds the only winning form in the field. The yard has a solid 12% strike rate at Haydock from a large sample of 766 runs while Clifford Lee is operating at 10% from 258 rides. He has no experience of soft ground and with only one run in the book the form has to be treated with caution. Having scored on his sole start at this venue he clearly handles the track, yet the lack of further evidence leaves him vulnerable to improvers or better-bred newcomers.
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3Hands To Yourself51/100
Hands To Yourself is a debutant so the race will tell us plenty, with pedigree and sales background the main pointers at this stage. Michael Bell has a solid 15% strike-rate at Haydock from 362 runs and Hector Crouch is operating at 19% from 148 rides here. The colt is by Camelot, a sire with a 12% overall win rate from a huge sample. Drawn in stall one he should have no traffic problems, yet like the other newcomers he enters the race with a complete absence of racecourse data.
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4Under Arrest51/100
Under Arrest has shown only modest form in two starts so far, finishing fifth on both occasions. The Haggas yard has a solid 25% strike rate at Haydock from 609 runs, while Tom Marquand posts a 15% record here from nearly 300 rides. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he may be suited by a race that develops some pace up front. With such a light career and too few runs to judge the soft ground or confirm trip suitability, this remains a cautious read despite the powerful yard and jockey combination.
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5Bedford Benny Boy49/100
Bedford Benny Boy is a newcomer from a yard that operates at a steady 11% strike rate at Haydock from 46 runs. The colt's sales and pedigree background is the main guide here given the low data confidence and complete lack of racecourse form. Sean Levey has a solid 12% record at the track from a big sample of rides.
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6Tidal Force48/100
Tidal Force is a newcomer with no racecourse experience. The Hugo Palmer yard has a solid 17% strike rate at Haydock from 231 runs and David Probert has an 11% record here from 234 rides. Pedigree and sales background will decide how much ability he brings to his debut on soft ground.
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7Austin47/100
Austin is a son of Blue Point who cost 95,000 euros as a yearling. Connections are respected at this track though both trainer and jockey records sit below the course average. Very little else to go on with this debutant.
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8Dancing Dunes47/100
Dancing Dunes showed only modest form when fifth on debut over 7f. The Ralph Beckett yard posts a solid 17% strike rate at Haydock from a big sample while Charles Bishop has a respectable 12% record here from 76 rides. With just one run on the clock and the going sample too small to judge, this remains very much an unknown quantity stepping up in trip.
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9Zarak Crown46/100
Zarak Crown is a debutant with low data confidence so the assessment rests on his pedigree and sales background. The yard has a 0% strike rate from six runs at Haydock while Oisin McSweeney has a solid 14% strike rate from 29 rides here. Connections will hope the colt can show enough on this soft ground first time out.
KTB verdict
Sir Terry Hadley is the KTB Selection. Although a debutant with no racecourse experience, the combination of an attractive pedigree by Baaeed, the trainer's respectable 12% strike rate at Haydock and Callum Shepherd's stronger 18% record at the track give him the edge in a race short on solid form. Burning Up has already won here over the trip and cannot be dismissed, while the powerful William Haggas and Tom Marquand combination with Under Arrest adds further depth. Hands To Yourself and the other debutants bring plenty of unknowns but could improve past those with modest existing form.
KTB Selection Sir Terry Hadley
This is the narrative read of the 2:05 Haydock. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Haydock racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Haydock results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has already won over course and distance?
Burning Up won here over this trip on debut.
Which runner is noted as usually held up?
Under Arrest is usually held up and produces his effort late.
What is the trainer's strike rate at Haydock with Under Arrest?
William Haggas has a 25% strike rate at Haydock from 609 runs.
Which jockey has the highest strike rate at Haydock among the principals?
Hector Crouch has a 19% strike rate at Haydock from 148 rides.
How many of these runners have previous racecourse experience?
Four runners have previous racecourse experience: Burning Up, Under Arrest, Dancing Dunes and the rest are debutants.
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