6:00 Down Royal
The Grant Thornton Ulster Cesarewitch Handicap at Down Royal is a competitive 17-runner staying event over 2m2f141y on good ground. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched at the top, with five principals all rated 50 or 51, underlining how little separates the leading contenders on paper. Most of the field are modest performers stepping up in trip for the first time or returning to a distance at which they have had previous success.
How the race shapes up
With a lone leader likely to have an uncontested lead according to the pace shape, the race is set to be run at a steady gallop that could prove difficult for closers to overcome. Trubshaw is the only confirmed front-runner and should be allowed an easy time on the front end from draw four. The majority of the field, including the top two in the KTB Fit rankings, are held-up types who will be looking to produce their effort late, so the key question is whether anything can close the gap on an uncontested leader in the straight.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Happy Jacky51/100
Happy Jacky is a modest 12-year-old with a fine record at this track, having won both previous starts here. He has a solid record on good ground with five wins from 22 starts and is dropping back to a trip at which he has been successful twice before. The trainer has a respectable 12% strike rate at Down Royal from 34 runs, though the claiming jockey has very limited experience at the course with a 0% strike rate from one ride. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will need the race to fall right given the uncontested lead up front.
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2Ragmans Corner KTB Selection51/100
Ragmans Corner is a fair performer who won a handicap at the last meeting but has a patchy overall record. He ran no better than mid-division when tried here once before and now steps up in trip for the first time, which asks a fresh question. The trainer holds a modest 7% strike rate at the track from 164 runs while the jockey is 3% from 40 rides here. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will be looking to come from off the pace in a race where the leader may get an easy time.
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3Boxing Great51/100
Boxing Great is a modest performer who has won twice on the Flat but is 0-5 over hurdles. He has shown some ability here with a second on his most recent visit though his latest effort was poor. He steps up in trip for the first time today while the trainer has a solid 10% strike rate at the track from 106 runs but the jockey is operating at just 2% from 52 rides. Typically settling in midfield, he has the course form to be considered but needs to bounce back from a disappointing run.
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4Trubshaw51/100
Trubshaw is a modest performer who has shown some spark here at Down Royal, finishing second on his only visit. He steps up in trip today having won once from nine starts on good ground, so the surface is no problem though the extra distance is an unknown. Trainer Henry De Bromhead has a solid 22% strike rate from 223 runs at the track while the claiming jockey has had too few rides here to judge. As the only confirmed front-runner, he is set to make the running in a race with a lone leader pace shape that could suit him well.
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5Alba Chiara50/100
Alba Chiara is a modest performer who has won once in five runs at this track and also has a win on good ground from six attempts. She steps up in trip today having last run over 1m5f yet she has already won at this distance. The trainer records an 11% strike rate here from 55 runs while the jockey is operating at 9% from 194 rides. Usually held up and producing her effort late, she has the course-winning record to make her of interest in a race where many will be coming from off the pace.
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6Cozone48/100
Cozone is a modest performer whose recent form is poor and who has failed to place in two runs at this track. He drops back in trip today having been well held over longer last time out. The trainer has a solid 15% strike rate here from 62 runs while the jockey's 5% from 332 rides is more modest.
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7Sign From Above46/100
Sign From Above is a modest performer with a solid course record here having won one of three starts. He steps up in trip today which is an unknown but he has placed when tried at this distance before. First-time headgear is another new factor while both trainer and jockey have modest records at the track.
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8Yogini46/100
Yogini is a modest performer on the balance of three runs to date with form figures of 620. She steps up markedly in trip today which asks a fresh question of her. The trainer has a 9% strike rate from 23 runs here while the jockey is operating at 11% from 71 rides.
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9Gangster Granny45/100
Gangster Granny is a modest performer who has been a regular at this track without ever looking like winning, finishing 8th and 4th in two runs here. She drops back in trip today to an untried 2m2f after her last start over 2m6f. The trainer's modest 6% strike rate at Down Royal is offset by the jockey's solid 14% record at the course, while she handles good ground well with five wins from ten starts.
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10Way Down South45/100
Way Down South is a modest performer with a patchy recent record of 95765. He steps up in trip today having won once from two starts at this distance though has only placed once from four runs on good ground. The jockey has a solid 16% strike rate from 243 rides at Down Royal while the trainer has no prior runners here.
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11Feud44/100
Feud is a modest performer with a solid record on good ground including two wins from seven starts. He steps up in trip today for the first time which asks a fresh question of him. Trainer and jockey both have established records at Down Royal but neither has struck at a high rate here.
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12Golden Temple43/100
Golden Temple is a modest performer who has been out of form for some time and showed little spark when sixth of eight over course and distance on return. He drops back in trip today having won at this distance on his only previous attempt, which is the main positive. Trainer Noel Meade has a solid 17% strike rate at Down Royal while jockey Gary Carroll is operating at 8%.
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13Zoffman42/100
Zoffman is a modest performer who has been largely out of form this year with a string of modest efforts. He steps up markedly in trip today having last run over 1m4f so this is a fresh question. The trainer has a solid 17% strike rate at Down Royal but the jockey is still seeking a first winner from 12 rides here.
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14Sanctity Of Space42/100
Sanctity Of Space is a modest performer who has shown bits of ability on the Flat but has been well held in both hurdle starts this year. He steps up in trip for the first time today which asks a fresh question while first-time headgear is also applied. The trainer has a 7% strike rate from 312 runs at Down Royal.
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15Deralo Ir40/100
Deralo Ir is a modest performer who has shown little since a promising second on debut. He steps up markedly in trip today having last run over 1m4f, which asks a fresh question of him. The trainer records a modest 8% strike rate from 613 runs at Down Royal.
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16Cooley's Mist39/100
Cooley's Mist is a modest performer who has shown bits of ability on the Flat, including a win on good ground from four attempts. He steps up markedly in trip today for the first time which asks a fresh question, while his sole run here resulted in a well-beaten seventh. The trainer's modest 4% strike rate from 226 runs at Down Royal adds a negative.
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17Banana Three37/100
Banana Three is a modest performer who has shown some ability on this track with a third here last year but was well held on his only other visit. He steps up markedly in trip today having last run over 1m5f and that asks a fresh question. Trainer and jockey both operate at a 6% strike rate here.
KTB verdict
Ragmans Corner is the KTB Selection. A fair performer who won a handicap at the last meeting, he brings solid recent form despite a patchy overall record and a below-par effort when tried here once before. The step up in trip poses a question but he is taken to handle it in a race where the pace shape may not be ideal for held-up performers. The main dangers are Happy Jacky, who has won both previous starts at the track and drops to a suitable trip, and Trubshaw, who looks set to get an easy lead and has shown spark here before. Boxing Great and Alba Chiara also have claims on their course form.
KTB Selection Ragmans Corner
This is the narrative read of the 6:00 Down Royal. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Down Royal racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Down Royal results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is most likely to make the running?
Trubshaw is the only confirmed front-runner and should be allowed an uncontested lead given the lone leader pace shape.
How many of the field are stepping up in trip for the first time?
The majority of the field are stepping up in trip for the first time or returning to a distance at which they have had previous success.
Which horse has the best trainer strike rate at Down Royal?
Henry De Bromhead has a 22% strike rate at Down Royal from 223 runs.
How many horses have won at this track before?
Happy Jacky has won both previous starts here, Alba Chiara has won once in five runs at the track, Sign From Above has won one of three starts here, and several others have placed without winning.
What is the run-style of the KTB Selection?
Ragmans Corner is usually held up and produces his effort late.
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