7:00 Down Royal
A competitive 17-runner Grant Thornton Handicap (Division I) over 1m4f194y at Down Royal on good ground. The KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched at the top, with five principals separated by just eight points, underlining the modest nature of the race and the open look to the contest. With the pace shape pointing to a lone leader having an uncontested advantage, the ability to close effectively from the rear will be at a premium in a race where stamina and positioning could prove decisive.
How the race shapes up
The pace map indicates a lone leader with high confidence, suggesting one horse will be allowed to bowl along in front with little pressure from the remainder of the field. Most of the principals, including the selection, are held-up types who will be produced late, meaning the race is likely to develop into a test of whether the front-runner can be reeled in or if the leader will prove hard to peg back. The key question is whether the uncontested lead will hand an insurmountable advantage or if the closers, racing on good ground that should suit their style, can time their efforts to capitalise in the straight.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Miss Australie KTB Selection52/100
Miss Australie is a modest performer who has been in and out this year, with a recent win at this trip mixed in among several poor efforts. She drops back from 1m6f having failed to land a blow in two previous tries at today's distance. The Adrian McGuinness yard operates at a 7% strike rate at Down Royal from 213 runs while the 5lb claimer Sam Coen has a solid 14% record from a small sample of 14 rides here. She acts on good ground with one win and a placing from three starts. Usually held up and producing her effort late, she will be looking to come from off the pace in a race where the uncontested lead may make life tough for closers.
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2Plains Indian51/100
Plains Indian is a modest performer who has been lightly campaigned in recent seasons. He drops back markedly in trip from 3m to around 1m5f, a distance at which he has been placed before, and he holds a respectable record on good ground with one win and three places from ten starts. The M J Tynan yard has a 0% strike rate at Down Royal from four runs and the 7lb claimer Orla Tynan is making her first appearance at the track, so this first run here comes with limited local guidance. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will need to find a spark from the rear against the lone leader's advantage.
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3Vervain49/100
Vervain is a limited performer who has shown some consistency of late with two placings from his last three starts. He drops back from 2m to a trip at which he has already been placed, though he remains without a win at the distance. The David Harry Kelly stable has a solid 13% strike rate at Down Royal from 38 runs while the 7lb claimer Jimmy Dalton is still seeking his first success here from eight rides. He has won once and been placed three times from nine starts on good ground. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will be another looking to close in a race shaped by an uncontested leader.
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4Maxwell Smart46/100
Maxwell Smart is a limited horse who has been running consistently without winning lately and now drops back from 1m6f to a trip where he has one win from eight starts. He has course experience in his favour having won once from four runs at Down Royal. The T G McCourt yard's modest 4% strike rate here from 341 runs is a negative while the jockey James Ryan's 11% record from 35 rides looks more positive. He has one win and six places from 16 starts on good ground. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will need to overcome the wide draw in stall 15 to get involved.
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5Coul Dore44/100
Coul Dore is a limited performer who has shown only modest form in seven starts. He finished ninth of 12 on his only previous visit to Down Royal and steps up markedly in trip today for a yard with a modest record at the track. The W R Crawford stable has a 9% strike rate at Down Royal from 11 runs and jockey Leigh Roche has a similar 9% record from a much larger sample of 136 rides. He has been placed once from his sole start on good ground. A front-runner who tends to make the running or race on the pace, he is the most likely to take up the lone leader role in what looks an uncontested lead.
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6No More Hiding44/100
No More Hiding is a limited horse who has shown only modest form in seven starts and looks up against it from stall 11. The step up to an untested 1m4f poses a fresh question. The A Oliver yard operates at 9% strike rate here while jockey W J Lee fares better at 16%.
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7God Of Thunder43/100
God Of Thunder is a limited performer who has been out of form for some time with a string of poor efforts this year. He steps up in trip today having won over this distance in the past but his recent efforts suggest that is unlikely to spark a revival. Both trainer and jockey have modest records at Down Royal.
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8Premier Princess43/100
Premier Princess is a limited filly who has shown very little in five runs this year. She steps up markedly in trip today which asks a fresh question of her. The trainer has a 9% strike rate at Down Royal from 92 runs and she is unproven on good ground.
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9Quinchy Lady41/100
Quinchy Lady is a limited filly who has shown very little in three starts to date. First-time headgear is now applied as she steps up markedly in trip and that has to be treated as an unknown at this stage. Trainer and jockey both have modest records at Down Royal.
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10Invincible Destiny40/100
Invincible Destiny is a limited performer who has struggled in four starts to date, finishing no closer than seventh. She steps up markedly in trip today which asks a fresh question of a horse with only modest form on the board so far. The Mrs John Harrington yard has a solid 12% strike rate at Down Royal from a big sample.
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11Jazz Forever39/100
Jazz Forever is a limited performer who has been out of form for some time with three duck eggs in his last three starts. He has shown some competitiveness on good ground and is dropping back in trip having been placed at this distance before. The trainer's modest record at Down Royal adds little encouragement and he has course form having finished fourth here.
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12Piatra Neamt39/100
Piatra Neamt is a limited performer who has shown very little in ten starts and arrives here with a recent string of modest efforts. He drops back in trip to a distance he has never tried while making his first visit to Down Royal. The trainer has an 8% strike rate here from 12 runs.
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13Lariat37/100
Lariat is a limited performer on balance and has never won or placed in four runs at this track. He has dropped back in trip today having last run over 2m and is placed but winless in two of five starts at this distance. The trainer operates at an 8% strike rate from 26 runs here.
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14Flagstone Lady37/100
Flagstone Lady is a limited performer on the balance of her six runs and modest ratings. She steps up in trip today which asks a fresh question of her. The trainer has an 11% strike rate from 27 runs at Down Royal while the jockey has only one ride at the track so far.
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15Limestone Red36/100
Limestone Red is a limited performer who has shown the odd flash of ability but remains winless after 31 starts. He has only modest form on this track and has never won on good ground, though he has managed to be competitive at this trip in the past. Trainer and jockey both have below-average records here.
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16Money Shuffler35/100
Money Shuffler is a limited performer who has struggled to make an impact in eight starts and arrives here off the back of a poor recent run. The step up to this new trip poses a fresh question while the wide draw in stall 14 adds another complication. The trainer has a modest 4% strike-rate at Down Royal from 52 runs.
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17Princess Rosie33/100
Princess Rosie is a limited filly who has shown very little in five starts and was well beaten on her only previous run here. The trainer has a 1% strike rate from 76 runs at Down Royal while the jockey is 0-47 at the track. Stepping up markedly in trip today asks a fresh question of her.
KTB verdict
Miss Australie is the KTB Selection in a race full of limited performers where the uncontested lead looks set to play a major part. She brings a recent win at the trip, has shown she can act on good ground, and is ridden by a jockey with a solid record at the track despite the yard's modest course strike rate. The selection will need to produce her late effort at the right time from her held-up position to overcome the leader's advantage. Main dangers are likely to come from Coul Dore if he can dictate from the front, while Maxwell Smart's course win adds interest and Vervain's recent consistency cannot be ignored in a race where the KTB Fit ratings suggest little separates the principals.
KTB Selection Miss Australie
This is the narrative read of the 7:00 Down Royal. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Down Royal racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Down Royal results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Who is most likely to take the uncontested lead?
Coul Dore is the only front-runner in the field and tends to make the running or race on the pace.
Which horse has course-winning form at Down Royal?
Maxwell Smart has won once from four runs at the track.
Which runner is wearing first-time headgear?
Quinchy Lady is fitted with first-time headgear.
How many principals are held-up types?
Four of the five principals are held up, with only Coul Dore being a front-runner.
Which horse is dropping back markedly from 3m?
Plains Indian is dropping back markedly in trip from 3m.
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