3:50 Thirsk
The 3:50 at Thirsk is a Class 3 handicap over six furlongs on good to soft ground, featuring a field of ten runners where the KTB Fit scores point to a competitive but not overwhelmingly deep contest. Dapper Valley heads the KTB rankings on a mark of 71, with Midnight Thunder, Dark Cloud Rising, Grasmere Boy and Musical Touch completing the principals, all closely matched on figures. The race sees several horses dropping in class while a couple step up, and the lone-leader pace shape adds a tactical dimension that could prove decisive.
How the race shapes up
With a high-confidence lone-leader pace shape, the race is expected to see one horse establish an uncontested lead that may prove difficult for those coming from off the pace to reel in late. Grasmere Boy is the most likely to take up the running or race prominently from his draw, while several held-up types including the selection Dapper Valley, Midnight Thunder, Musical Touch, Ray Mon Dough, Mostar Dreams, Commanche Falls, Fivethousandtoone and The Good Biscuit will be looking to produce their efforts in the final furlong or two. Dark Cloud Rising should race handily on or close to the pace. The key question is whether any closer can bridge the gap to an unpressured leader on this ground.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Dapper Valley KTB Selection71/100
Dapper Valley is a fair performer who has been in decent form this year with two wins from his last six starts. He steps up to 6f for the first time today having won at the trip before, while his sole run on good to soft produced a placing. The Michael Keady yard has a 33% strike rate at Thirsk from a small sample with an A/E of 6, and jockey Darragh Keenan brings a 13% strike rate at the track from 15 rides with an A/E of 1.89. Usually held up and producing his effort late from draw 7, he drops in class here. The recent form figures of 703110 underline his competitiveness, and KTB rates him top on a Fit score of 71.
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2Midnight Thunder65/100
Midnight Thunder is a useful performer who showed a bit more spark when fifth on return last month. He drops back to 6f today having won twice at the trip from only four attempts, which looks a sensible move. Saeed bin Suroor has a solid 28% strike rate at Thirsk with an A/E of 0.93 from 76 runs, while Pierre-Louis Jamin boasts a strong 34% record at the track with an A/E of 1.73 from 29 rides. Usually held up and producing his effort late from draw 4, he has no course form on record and showed no win or place from his one previous run on good to soft. The recent form figures of 9/40-5 support his place in the upper half of the KTB Fit scores at 65.
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3Dark Cloud Rising61/100
Dark Cloud Rising is a useful performer who has won over this trip and at this track. Recent form is a bit up and down but the figures still stack up in this company. David O'Meara and Billy Garritty combine with a 13% strike rate from 15 runs and an A/E of 1.19 plus £11.00 LSP, while the trainer has a 14% strike rate at Thirsk with an A/E of 0.95 from a huge 709 runs and the jockey an 11% strike rate with an A/E of 0.95 from 94 rides. Usually racing handily on or close to the lead from draw 10, he has won here from three starts but is 0 from 3 on good to soft ground. The recent form figures of 0U1326 and a drop in class complete the picture for this 61-rated KTB contender.
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4Grasmere Boy56/100
Grasmere Boy is a fair performer who has shown consistent ability, winning twice at this trip from four attempts and placing in two of his other three starts. He arrives in decent form having won at this track on his penultimate run before a respectable fifth last time. Julie Camacho and Jason Hart team up with a 16% strike rate from 95 runs and an A/E of 1.12 plus a small loss of £6.88 LSP, though the trainer has a 9% strike rate at Thirsk with an A/E of 0.91 from 265 runs and the jockey a 9% strike rate with an A/E of 0.79 from 466 rides. Tending to make the running or race on the pace from draw 9, he is unproven on good to soft and drops in class. The recent form figures of 221155 support his KTB Fit score of 56.
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5Musical Touch55/100
Musical Touch is a fair performer who has won over this trip four times from 17 attempts and showed his liking for Thirsk when successful here from two runs. He has struggled on good to soft ground in both previous tries though and that leaves a question mark today. The Richard & Peter Fahey yard has an 8% strike rate at Thirsk with an A/E of 0.96 from 26 runs, while claimer Ethan Tindall has a 6% strike rate with an A/E of 0.93 from 16 rides; the stable and jockey combine with a 7% strike rate from 68 runs and an A/E of 0.59 plus a loss of £31.17 LSP. Usually held up and producing his effort late from draw 8, he drops in class with recent form figures of 0-1710. KTB rates him on a Fit score of 55.
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6Ray Mon Dough55/100
Ray Mon Dough is a useful performer who has shown a good level of consistency this year. He has already won twice at this trip from five attempts and arrives in solid form after a win last time out. Oliver Cole has a 0% strike rate at Thirsk from a small sample of one run, while Kevin Stott maintains a steady 14% strike rate here from 249 rides with an A/E of 0.97. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he steps up in class with no course form and is unproven on good to soft.
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7Mostar Dreams52/100
Mostar Dreams is a useful performer who has run well at this track before, finishing third on his only visit. He has placed on good to soft ground and holds a solid record at today's trip having won over it previously, though he drops back from a mile on his latest start. Adrian Keatley has a modest 6% strike rate at Thirsk with an A/E of 0.48 from 51 runs, and M. P. Sheehy is 0 from 5 rides here. Usually held up, he drops in class with recent form figures of 192439.
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8Commanche Falls49/100
Commanche Falls is a useful performer who has been a regular in strong sprint handicaps and retains a fair level of ability at nine. He has shown consistent placed form this year yet has failed to win for over two years and looks vulnerable to sharper types from stall two. Michael Dods and Connor Beasley both operate at a 10% strike rate at Thirsk with below-par A/E figures. He has a win from six runs on good to soft and has finished fourth twice here without winning.
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9Fivethousandtoone47/100
Fivethousandtoone is a fair sort who has been in and out of form this year with a string of placed efforts mixed in with some modest runs. He steps up from 5f to a trip he has won over before while the good to soft ground looks ideal on his record of a win and a place from two starts. Tim Easterby and David Allan both have solid but unspectacular records at Thirsk. He drops in class with recent form figures of 220686.
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10The Good Biscuit47/100
The Good Biscuit is a fair performer who has won seven times at this trip and arrives in solid form after two recent victories. He has been placed on good to soft but is winless in three runs at Thirsk and has never scored on this ground. Ruth Carr and Joanna Mason both operate at a modest 8% strike rate here. Usually held up, his recent form figures read 441161.
KTB verdict
Dapper Valley stands out as the KTB Selection. A fair performer in decent form with two wins from his last six starts, he has previous success at this trip, a placing on good to soft, and the benefit of a yard showing a strong 33% strike rate at Thirsk from its small sample. Usually held up, he will look to come from off the pace in a race where the uncontested lead could stretch those trying to close late. The main dangers are Midnight Thunder, who drops back to a trip where he has won twice from four starts and benefits from powerful trainer and jockey statistics at the track, and Dark Cloud Rising, who has won over course and distance and whose figures still stack up despite being 0 from 3 on good to soft. Grasmere Boy could set the fractions while Musical Touch adds further depth from his course win.
KTB Selection Dapper Valley
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:03 UTC, 5 Sep. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Dapper Valley | 25/1 | Bet365 |
| Midnight Thunder | 5/1 | Bet365 |
| Dark Cloud Rising | 3/1 | Bet365 |
| Grasmere Boy | 7/1 | Bet365 |
| Musical Touch | 9/1 | Bet Victor |
| Ray Mon Dough | 10/1 | Bet365 |
| Mostar Dreams | 14/1 | 7Bet |
| Commanche Falls | 6/1 | Bet Victor |
| Fivethousandtoone | 10/1 | Bet Victor |
| The Good Biscuit | 7/1 | Bet Victor |
This is the narrative read of the 3:50 Thirsk. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Thirsk racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Thirsk results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is likely to take the uncontested lead?
Grasmere Boy, who tends to make the running or race on the pace, is the most probable leader given the lone-leader pace shape.
How many wins has Dapper Valley recorded at this trip?
Dapper Valley has won at this trip before.
What is Saeed bin Suroor's strike rate at Thirsk?
Saeed bin Suroor has a 28% strike rate at Thirsk.
Which horses are dropping in class?
Dapper Valley, Dark Cloud Rising, Grasmere Boy, Musical Touch, Mostar Dreams and Fivethousandtoone are all dropping in class.
How many course wins does Musical Touch have at Thirsk?
Musical Touch has won here from two runs.
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