3:27 Navan
The Irish Stallion Farms EBF Hill Of Tara Stakes is a competitive Listed event over 1m1f at Navan on good ground, featuring a field of 12 that includes several high-class performers. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched at the top, with Wemightakedlongway, Hotazhell and Bubble Gum all rated in the low 60s, underlining the depth on display. Official ratings and recent RPRs confirm that the principals bring strong claims, though questions of trip, draw and current form will shape the outcome in a race where the pace is expected to play a key role.
How the race shapes up
With two or more habitual front-runners present and the pace shape assessed as strong with high confidence, the race is likely to be run at a searching gallop from early on. Norwalk Havoc, Subsonic and Lady Lilac all tend to make the running or race prominently, which should ensure a genuine test and increase the chance of the pace collapsing in the final furlong. That scenario would play to the strengths of hold-up performers such as Bubble Gum, Isaac Newton and Hazdann, making late finishing ability potentially decisive. The key question is whether the prominent runners can dictate terms or if the race will fall into the hands of those coming from off the pace.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Wemightakedlongway KTB Selection62/100RPR 124 — field comparison calculated at page load
- 2Hotazhell61/100RPR 123 — field comparison calculated at page load
- 3Bubble Gum60/100RPR 113 — field comparison calculated at page load
- 4Isaac Newton55/100RPR 107 — field comparison calculated at page load
- 5Lemsairbat54/100RPR 112 — field comparison calculated at page load
- 6Flushing Meadows53/100RPR 105 — field comparison calculated at page load
- 7Hazdann52/100RPR 113 — field comparison calculated at page load
- 8Norwalk Havoc51/100RPR 114 — field comparison calculated at page load
- 9Geryon51/100RPR 109 — field comparison calculated at page load
- 10Subsonic48/100RPR 101 — field comparison calculated at page load
- 11Summer Is Tomorrow45/100RPR 101 — field comparison calculated at page load
- 12Lady Lilac39/100RPR 96 — field comparison calculated at page load
The contenders
Wemightakedlongway KTB Fit 62/100
Wemightakedlongway is a high-class performer with an RPR of 124 who won on his only previous start at Navan. He has been competitive on good ground without winning and now drops back in trip to 1m1f having last run over further. The four-year-old usually races prominently, on or close to the lead, which could be an asset or a liability depending on how the strong pace unfolds from his draw in stall 2. Joseph Patrick O'Brien has a 12% strike rate at Navan from 497 runs while Dylan Browne McMonagle, who is 0 from 2 here, takes the ride. Overall the KTB Fit Score of 62 marks him out as the selection in a race where his course record and class could prove decisive.
Hotazhell KTB Fit 61/100
Hotazhell is a high-class performer with an RPR of 123 and recent form that includes several placed efforts in strong company. He drops back from 1m4f to 1m1f having failed to win in his only previous try at today's distance, though he has won once and placed twice from four runs on good ground. Usually racing prominently with high confidence, the four-year-old will be towards the front in a race expected to feature a strong pace. Mrs John Harrington has an 11% strike rate at Navan from 1014 runs and Shane Foley, with an 11% strike rate here from 600 rides, is in the saddle. This represents the horse's first start at the track, yet his ability keeps him firmly in the mix with a KTB Fit Score of 61.
Bubble Gum KTB Fit 60/100
Bubble Gum is a smart performer who showed useful form when landing a Group 3 last season and ran to a similar level on his latest start. Dropping back to a trip he has won over is a plus while he has already won on good ground from one run. Usually held up and producing his effort late with high confidence, he is ideally suited to a strong pace that could collapse, though the wide draw in stall 12 is far from ideal. First-time headgear is an unknown for the five-year-old. J P Murtagh has a 12% strike rate at Navan from 241 runs and Seamie Heffernan, with a 10% strike rate here, takes the mount. His KTB Fit Score of 60 reflects a live chance if the race shape falls his way.
Isaac Newton KTB Fit 55/100
Isaac Newton is a smart performer who has mixed form this year but ran to a high level as a juvenile when finishing fourth in a Group 1 at Saint-Cloud. He drops back in trip today after a recent effort over further and has already shown he handles this distance without winning at it. Usually held up with high confidence, the three-year-old should relish a strong pace and be produced late. Aidan O'Brien has a 23% strike rate at Navan from 1023 runs while Ryan Moore, boasting a 45% strike rate here from 60 rides, is a notable booking. With an RPR of 107 and a KTB Fit Score of 55 he remains a respected contender despite not yet winning at this trip.
Lemsairbat KTB Fit 54/100
Lemsairbat is a smart performer who has been competitive at a high level this year and arrives here in solid form after two placed efforts. He drops back to 1m1f having been placed twice at the trip without winning and acts on good ground having been placed three times from four starts. Usually racing prominently with medium confidence, the five-year-old will be handy in a race with a strong pace. Joseph Patrick O'Brien has a 12% strike rate at Navan from 497 runs though jockey J M Sheridan is only 6% from 125 rides here. This is the horse's first run at the track and his KTB Fit Score of 54 keeps him in the conversation among the principals.
The rest of the field
Flushing MeadowsKTB Fit 53/100
Flushing Meadows is a smart performer who showed useful form as a juvenile with two placed efforts in small-field Group 3s. This year has been more disappointing with an 85 in Listed company on his latest start and he now drops back in trip to a distance he has never tried. Aidan O'Brien has a 23% strike rate at Navan from 1023 runs.
HazdannKTB Fit 52/100
Hazdann is a smart performer who won a 7f maiden at two then ran a promising race when fourth behind high-class Henri Matisse on return last year. He steps up to 1m1f today which asks a fresh question and he remains lightly raced overall. Dermot Weld has a 12% strike rate at Navan from 810 runs.
Norwalk HavocKTB Fit 51/100
Norwalk Havoc is a smart performer who has run to a very useful level on his day but arrives in modest form having been beaten 7 lengths or more in three of his last four starts. First time at Navan and only two runs on good ground so far both without a win or place add to the unknowns while the step up to 1m1f is another fresh question. Mrs John Harrington has an 11% strike rate at Navan from 1014 runs.
GeryonKTB Fit 51/100
Geryon is a smart performer who showed useful juvenile form including a Curragh maiden win and placed efforts in Group 2 company. He has failed to build on that in two starts this year and now steps up in trip for the first time while wearing first-time headgear. Ger Lyons has a 12% strike rate at Navan from 659 runs.
SubsonicKTB Fit 48/100
Subsonic is a useful performer who showed her best form yet when third at Gowran last month and has solid recent form figures overall. She drops back in trip today having been placed at this distance without winning and her lightly-raced profile means the going remains an unknown. She was only seventh on her one previous run at Navan where J P Murtagh has a 12% strike rate.
Summer Is TomorrowKTB Fit 45/100
Summer Is Tomorrow is a useful performer who ran to a similar level when fourth on his most recent start. He drops back in trip with first-time headgear and has won on good ground in the past, though his record at this exact distance is modest. Joseph Patrick O'Brien has a 12% strike rate at Navan from 497 runs.
Lady LilacKTB Fit 39/100
Lady Lilac is a useful performer on the figures with an RPR of 96 and has been competitive in some strong races. She drops back in trip from 1m4f having already placed over today's distance though without winning and she has only placed once in four runs on good ground. Joseph G Murphy has a modest 3% strike rate at Navan from 91 runs.
KTB verdict
Wemightakedlongway stands out as the KTB Selection with a Fit Score of 62 and the highest RPR in the field at 124. His course win on his only previous visit to Navan, allied to high-class form and a prominent run style that could see him benefit or suffer according to how the strong pace develops, gives him a clear edge. Hotazhell is the obvious danger, only a pound behind on RPR and with strong placed form in good company, while Bubble Gum's late kick off a wide draw could capitalise if the pace collapses. Isaac Newton and Lemsairbat round out the principals with credible claims based on their respective trainer strengths and recent competitiveness.
KTB Selection Wemightakedlongway
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 06:02 UTC, 7 Jun. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Wemightakedlongway | 6/1 | BoyleSports |
| Hotazhell | 11/8 | Unibet |
| Bubble Gum | 28/1 | Midnite |
| Isaac Newton | 11/2 | Bet365 |
| Lemsairbat | 16/1 | William Hill |
| Flushing Meadows | 14/1 | BoyleSports |
| Hazdann | 11/1 | Bet Victor |
| Norwalk Havoc | 16/1 | Ladbrokes |
| Geryon | 9/1 | BetTom |
| Subsonic | 16/1 | BetTom |
| Summer Is Tomorrow | 40/1 | Bet Victor |
| Lady Lilac | 40/1 | Betfred |
This is the narrative read of the 3:27 Navan. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Navan racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has course-winning form at Navan?
Wemightakedlongway won here on his only previous start at the track.
How does the strong pace shape affect the race?
The strong pace, featuring multiple front-runners, could collapse late and favour hold-up horses such as Bubble Gum, Isaac Newton and Hazdann.
What is the significance of first-time headgear in the race?
Bubble Gum, Geryon and Summer Is Tomorrow are all wearing headgear for the first time, an unknown factor for each.
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at Navan in this field?
Aidan O'Brien has a 23% strike rate at Navan from 1023 runs, with both Isaac Newton and Flushing Meadows under his care.
Which jockey has the best record at Navan among those riding?
Ryan Moore has a 45% strike rate at Navan from 60 rides when partnering Isaac Newton.
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