4:02 Navan
This Listed race for fillies and mares over 1m30y at Navan features an competitive field of 11 where the KTB Fit Scores identify a clear top pick on 68 while the next four principals sit between 58 and 53. The race is run on good ground and the official ratings range from 110 down to 86, with several smart performers and lightly raced types in the mix. Overall the KTB numbers point to a race where class and the ability to handle a strongly run contest will be decisive.
How the race shapes up
A strong pace is anticipated with at least two habitual front-runners present and the pace shape suggests it could collapse late. Fast Tara is likely to make the running while White Sand Beach and the prominent Quebec and Sanctijude should be close up early. This setup is expected to play into the hands of the hold-up horses, several of which are among the principals, and the key question is which of the closers can pick up the pieces when the leaders tire in the straight.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Drop Dead Gorgeous KTB Selection68/100RPR 110 — field comparison calculated at page load
- 2Duckadilly58/100RPR 109 — field comparison calculated at page load
- 3La Fogata57/100RPR 102 — field comparison calculated at page load
- 4Fingerpaint54/100RPR 105 — field comparison calculated at page load
- 5Sindria53/100RPR 102 — field comparison calculated at page load
- 6Quebec52/100RPR 106 — field comparison calculated at page load
- 7Fast Tara50/100RPR 89 — field comparison calculated at page load
- 8Yellowstone Lake49/100RPR 93 — field comparison calculated at page load
- 9White Sand Beach49/100RPR 95 — field comparison calculated at page load
- 10Sanctijude45/100RPR 88 — field comparison calculated at page load
- 11Syzygy37/100RPR 86 — field comparison calculated at page load
The contenders
Drop Dead Gorgeous KTB Fit 68/100
Drop Dead Gorgeous is a smart filly who made a winning debut over this trip at Naas in March before finishing third in a Curragh Group 3. She looked to have gone backwards when well held over 1m2f last time and now drops back in distance. The RPR of 110 sets the standard in the field on figures. Aidan O'Brien has a 23% strike rate at Navan from 1023 runs and Ryan Moore takes the ride with his 45% strike rate at the track from 60 rides. She is held up, usually producing her effort late, and has been placed once from two starts on good ground. This is her first run at Navan but the combination of class, yard and jockey makes her the one to beat.
Duckadilly KTB Fit 58/100
Duckadilly is a smart performer who ran to a high level last season and showed he handles good ground with a win and two places from three starts. He steps up to a mile today having won at the trip before though his recent form has been mixed and he was below par on return. The RPR of 109 is very much in the mix on field comparison. Trainer Daniel McLoughlin has a 0% strike rate at Navan from nine runs while this is the horse's first run here. Ben Coen is in the saddle and the horse is held up, usually producing its effort late. He remains a danger if he can rediscover his best form.
La Fogata KTB Fit 57/100
La Fogata is a useful performer who has already won over today's trip as a juvenile and shaped well when second in a Listed race last time. She drops back from 1m2f while the yard has a solid 15% strike rate at Navan from 52 runs. The RPR of 102 leaves her with a bit to find on the best in the race. Donnacha Aidan O'Brien teams up with Chris Hayes and she is held up, usually producing her effort late with high confidence in that assessment. Going suitability remains unknown on the basis of only five career starts but she has been placed once from two runs on good. She is open to further progress at this trip.
Fingerpaint KTB Fit 54/100
Fingerpaint is a smart performer who showed useful form as a 3yo with a Curragh maiden win and a hampered third in a Tipperary Group 3. She has won on good ground but was well below par on heavy at Leopardstown last time and has never won at this trip. The RPR of 105 means she is not far away on pure ability. Dermot Weld and Colin Keane team up again on a horse who remains lightly raced and open to further improvement. She is held up, usually producing her effort late, and the trainer has a 12% strike rate at Navan from 810 runs. The jockey has a 14% strike rate at the track from 561 rides.
Sindria KTB Fit 53/100
Sindria is a useful performer who arrives in form after two wins from her last three starts and looks up to this level on an RPR of 102. She has already won over today's trip but is 0-3 on good ground and makes her first visit to Navan. Joseph Patrick O'Brien has a 12% strike rate at the track from 497 runs and Dylan Browne McMonagle takes the ride with his 12% strike rate at Navan from 172 rides. She is held up, usually producing her effort late, and the recent form figures of 04-119 underline her current momentum. The trip looks ideal but the going and course are unknowns.
The rest of the field
QuebecKTB Fit 52/100
Quebec is a smart performer on his day with an RPR of 106 but has failed to build on earlier promise and was well beaten in both starts this season. He has run four times at this trip without success and his latest efforts suggest he is struggling to find his best form. The trainer has a 12% strike rate from 497 runs at Navan.
Fast TaraKTB Fit 50/100
Fast Tara is a fair sort who has run to form without winning in three starts this year and arrives off a solid RPR of 89. She has placed here once from a single run at Navan and has shown she can be competitive on good ground, though her trainer's modest 6 percent strike rate at the track is a negative. First-time headgear is now fitted as she tries this trip again where she has won once from 15 starts.
Yellowstone LakeKTB Fit 49/100
Yellowstone Lake is a useful performer who showed progressive form as a 2yo, winning a Dundalk maiden after two placed efforts behind smart types. She steps up to an untested 1m today which asks a fresh question while her going suitability remains unknown from just three runs. The Twomey yard has a solid 21% strike rate at Navan from 29 runs.
White Sand BeachKTB Fit 49/100
White Sand Beach is a useful performer who has placed three times at this trip from five starts. Recent efforts have been patchy though with a last of 12 in a Group 3 at the Curragh followed by an unplaced run in a handicap. Trainer strikes at a 23% rate from over a thousand runs at Navan.
SanctijudeKTB Fit 45/100
Sanctijude is a fair performer who showed his best when winning over this trip at Listowel last time and arrives in solid form. He has been competitive on good ground without winning and the draw in stall two should help him get a nice position early. Trainer strikes at 8% here from a big sample while the jockey is making his first appearance at the track.
SyzygyKTB Fit 37/100
Syzygy is a fair performer on his best days with an RPR of 86 and has won twice at this trip from five attempts. He drops back in distance today having last run over 1m2½f and now tries headgear for the first time. The yard has a 0% strike rate from nine runs at Navan and he was only seventh when he ran here before.
KTB verdict
Drop Dead Gorgeous stands out as the KTB Selection. She brings the highest RPR in the race along with a smart profile that includes a win over this trip on debut and a solid third in Group company. The drop back in distance looks a positive after her last run and the combination of the O'Brien stable and Ryan Moore at Navan adds further strength to her claims. The strong pace should suit her hold-up style perfectly. The main dangers are Duckadilly, who has the second-highest rating and good-ground form, and La Fogata who shaped well last time and is from a yard in form at the track.
KTB Selection Drop Dead Gorgeous
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 05:40 UTC, 7 Jun. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Drop Dead Gorgeous | 5/2 | William Hill |
| Duckadilly | 17/2 | Bet365 |
| La Fogata | 5/1 | Unibet |
| Fingerpaint | 4/1 | Bet365 |
| Sindria | 6/1 | Bet365 |
| Quebec | 22/1 | BetTom |
| Fast Tara | 33/1 | Bet365 |
| Yellowstone Lake | 9/1 | BetTom |
| White Sand Beach | 25/1 | Bet365 |
| Sanctijude | 25/1 | Unibet |
| Syzygy | 28/1 | BetTom |
This is the narrative read of the 4:02 Navan. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Navan racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is the KTB Selection and what is its Fit Score?
Drop Dead Gorgeous is the KTB Selection with a Fit Score of 68.
What is the expected pace shape and how might it affect the race?
Strong pace likely with high confidence due to two or more habitual front-runners; the pace looks strong and could collapse late, favouring hold-up horses.
Which runners are confirmed hold-up types likely to benefit from the pace?
Drop Dead Gorgeous, Duckadilly, La Fogata, Fingerpaint, Sindria and Yellowstone Lake are all held up and produce their effort late.
Who are the front-runners and prominent runners in the field?
Fast Tara tends to make the running, White Sand Beach races on the pace, while Quebec and Sanctijude usually race handily on or close to the lead.
What are the course records of the trainer and jockey for the selection?
Aidan O'Brien has a 23% strike rate at Navan from 1023 runs while Ryan Moore has a 45% strike rate at Navan from 60 rides.
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