5:12 Navan
This 1m5f handicap division at Navan on good ground features a field of 15 modest performers, most of whom have been struggling for form. The KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched in the low-to-mid 40s and 50s, underlining a race lacking depth where a career-low mark or a return to a workable one could prove decisive. With the pace shape pointing to a lone leader likely to enjoy an uncontested advantage, the ability to close effectively from off the pace or capitalise on that uncontested lead will be key.
How the race shapes up
The pace map indicates a lone leader with high confidence, suggesting one horse will take up the running with little pressure from rivals in the early stages. Most of the principals are held-up types who will be produced late, while a couple of prominent runners and mid-division settle-rs complete the picture. This shape poses the question of whether the clear leader can dictate and prove hard to peg back, or if any of the closers can muster the necessary finishing kick on this good surface.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Talking Tough KTB Selection53/100RPR 61 — field comparison calculated at page load
- 2Edge Of Darkness51/100RPR 57 — field comparison calculated at page load
- 3God Of Thunder49/100RPR 62 — field comparison calculated at page load
- 4Jurality49/100RPR 62 — field comparison calculated at page load
- 5Nita49/100RPR 63 — field comparison calculated at page load
- 6Folly Beach48/100RPR 60 — field comparison calculated at page load
- 7Mystic Rose48/100RPR 58 — field comparison calculated at page load
- 8Just Another Eagle47/100RPR 59 — field comparison calculated at page load
- 9Mephisto46/100RPR 62 — field comparison calculated at page load
- 10Appian Way44/100RPR 63 — field comparison calculated at page load
- 11Creative Dancer44/100RPR 56 — field comparison calculated at page load
- 12Eastern Wind44/100RPR 63 — field comparison calculated at page load
- 13Synchronize44/100RPR 60 — field comparison calculated at page load
- 14Felicity Smoak41/100RPR 60 — field comparison calculated at page load
- 15Cahir Bay33/100RPR 55 — field comparison calculated at page load
The contenders
Talking Tough KTB Fit 53/100
Talking Tough is a modest performer who has dropped to a workable mark but has been largely out of form for some time. He has placed once from one run at Navan and is competitive on good ground, though the trainer's record here is poor. The 9-year-old drops back in trip today having failed to make the frame in two previous attempts at this distance. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will be looking to come from off the pace in a race where the leader may get an easy time of it. His RPR of 61 places him competitively in this field on figures.
Edge Of Darkness KTB Fit 51/100
Edge Of Darkness is a limited performer who has been struggling for some time with a string of poor efforts. He has won on good ground and at this trip but looks nothing like the horse that achieved those results now and has shown little at this track. The trainer has a 10% strike rate at Navan with an A/E of 2.4 from 10 runs while the jockey has a 12% strike rate here with an A/E of 0.89 from 172 rides. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will need to show significant improvement on recent form to feature. His RPR of 57 underlines his current level.
God Of Thunder KTB Fit 49/100
God Of Thunder is a modest performer who has dropped to a career-low mark but has shown little spark in recent months. He has placed here before and has won over today's trip though the yard's modest record at Navan suggests he will need to improve on recent form to be competitive. The trainer has a 6% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 0.77 from 244 runs while the jockey has a 6% strike rate with an A/E of 0.72 from 125 rides. Usually held up and producing his effort late with high confidence, he will be aiming to come from the rear. His RPR of 62 gives him a reasonable look on paper.
Jurality KTB Fit 49/100
Jurality is a modest performer who has been consistent enough of late with three placed efforts in his last five starts. He drops back from 2m to a trip where he has placed once from one attempt though he is yet to win at any distance. The trainer strikes at a modest 6% rate here with an A/E of 0.78 from 206 runs while the jockey has a 10% strike rate with an A/E of 0.9 from 547 rides. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will need to be produced at the right time against the likely uncontested leader. His RPR of 62 matches several others in a tight field.
Nita KTB Fit 49/100
Nita is a modest performer who has shown little in eight runs and arrives here off the back of a poor 50730- sequence. She steps up to 1m5f for the first time having failed to trouble the judge on her only previous attempt at the trip and has been beaten on both starts on good ground. The trainer has a 4% strike rate at Navan with an A/E of 0.62 from 155 runs while the jockey has a 5% strike rate with an A/E of 0.67 from 605 rides. Typically settling in midfield with high confidence, she will be looking to improve her position from there. Her RPR of 63 is the highest in the field though her form gives little encouragement.
The rest of the field
Folly BeachKTB Fit 48/100
Folly Beach is a modest performer who has been placed without winning at this trip and on this ground. He has shown some ability at Navan with a second on his third visit here but his recent form has been poor and he now drops back from 2m6f. The trainer has a modest strike rate at the track.
Mystic RoseKTB Fit 48/100
Mystic Rose is a limited performer who has shown little spark in nine starts and arrives here with an RPR of just 58. She has been beaten a long way on both previous runs at Navan and has never placed on good ground. Dropping back from 2m to 1m5f asks a fresh question but the overall profile remains modest.
Just Another EagleKTB Fit 47/100
Just Another Eagle is a limited performer who has been placed on both starts at this track and on good ground. He steps up markedly in trip today having shown very little at 1m last time. The trainer has a modest record here while the claiming jockey is still seeking a first Navan winner from few rides.
MephistoKTB Fit 46/100
Mephisto is a modest performer who ran respectably when fourth over 2m at this track last time and has placed on good ground in the past. He is dropping back in trip today having failed to trouble the judge in his only previous 1m5f run. The yard's modest record here is a negative though the jockey has a solid strike rate at Navan.
Appian WayKTB Fit 44/100
Appian Way is a modest performer who has run three times at this track with a second placing among them. He drops back from 2m6f to an untried 1m5f today which asks a fresh question of him. The trainer is 0-21 at Navan while the jockey has had only three rides here.
Creative DancerKTB Fit 44/100
Creative Dancer has shown very little in recent runs and carries a limited rating that matches his modest form figures. He steps up markedly in trip today having achieved nothing at shorter distances and has failed to place in eight runs on good ground. The yard holds a solid record at Navan but this 9-year-old looks up against it from stall 10.
Eastern WindKTB Fit 44/100
Eastern Wind is a modest performer who has run to form without winning on his last three starts. He has shown some ability at this trip but his record at Navan is poor with no placed efforts from five runs. The trainer's very low strike rate here adds to the negatives on a track where this 7-year-old has failed to make much impact.
SynchronizeKTB Fit 44/100
Synchronize is a modest performer who has been largely out of form for some time and showed little spark when fourth on return at Dundalk. He drops back from 2m to 1m5f today having failed to trouble the judge in his only previous try at the distance. The trainer has a 9% strike rate from 22 runs at Navan while the jockey is still seeking a first success from 11 rides here.
Felicity SmoakKTB Fit 41/100
Felicity Smoak is a modest performer who has shown little since a placed effort on good ground last year. She ran poorly over course and distance on her only try at this trip and was well held here again on return. The trainer and jockey both have modest records at Navan.
Cahir BayKTB Fit 33/100
Cahir Bay has shown very little in three maiden runs and arrives with a limited RPR of 55. The step up to 1m5f is a fresh question while first-time cheekpieces are another unknown on handicap debut. The trainer has a 0% strike rate from 33 runs at Navan.
KTB verdict
Talking Tough is the KTB Selection. A modest performer who has dropped to a workable mark, he has placed once from one run at Navan and remains competitive on good ground despite a lengthy spell out of form. Dropping back in trip having failed to make the frame in two previous attempts at this distance, his held-up run-style could see him produced late against what is likely to be an uncontested leader. The main dangers are Jurality, who has been consistent enough of late with three placed efforts in his last five starts, and Mephisto, who ran respectably when fourth over 2m here last time.
KTB Selection Talking Tough
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 06:02 UTC, 7 Jun. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Talking Tough | 80/1 | Bet365 |
| Edge Of Darkness | 10/1 | Bet Victor |
| God Of Thunder | 8/1 | Bet365 |
| Jurality | 4/1 | Midnite |
| Nita | 20/1 | Bet Victor |
| Just Another Eagle | 17/2 | BetTom |
| Appian Way | 28/1 | Grosvenor Sports |
| Creative Dancer | 12/1 | Bet365 |
| Felicity Smoak | 6/1 | Midnite |
| Cahir Bay | 19/1 | Grosvenor Sports |
This is the narrative read of the 5:12 Navan. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Navan racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is likely to take the uncontested lead?
Just Another Eagle tends to make the running or race on the pace and is the most likely to take advantage of the lone leader pace shape.
How many of the principals are held-up types?
Four of the five principals — Talking Tough, Edge Of Darkness, God Of Thunder and Jurality — are usually held up and produce their effort late.
Which horse has the highest official RPR in the field?
Nita has the highest RPR on 63.
Has any horse in the field won over this trip before?
Edge Of Darkness and God Of Thunder have both won at this trip according to their KTB reads.
Which horse is making its handicap debut in first-time headgear?
Cahir Bay is on handicap debut in first-time cheekpieces.
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