5:18 Roscommon
This small but high-quality field of three lines up for the McNulty Furniture Rated Novice Hurdle over 2m4f at Roscommon on soft ground. All three principals arrive with strong RPRs in the 128-138 range and recent winning form, yet each carries an unanswered question about soft conditions as none has experience of yielding to soft. The KTB Fit Scores separate them only modestly at the top, with Berto Ramirez on 58, Polepatrick on 53 and Chanceawetmorning on 50, painting a race where class is evenly spread but stamina and ground suitability could prove decisive.
How the race shapes up
A strong pace is anticipated given that both Polepatrick and Chanceawetmorning are habitual front-runners who tend to make the running or race prominently. With two or more likely to go forward early, the tempo could prove testing and set the race up for late closers, favouring horses that settle in midfield and pounce off a strong gallop. The key question is whether the prominent pair can dictate matters on ground that is unproven for all three, or whether the pace will collapse late and play into the hands of the hold-up performer.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Berto Ramirez KTB Selection58/100RPR 138 — field comparison calculated at page load
- 2Polepatrick53/100RPR 128 — field comparison calculated at page load
- 3Chanceawetmorning50/100RPR 128 — field comparison calculated at page load
The contenders
Berto Ramirez KTB Fit 58/100
Berto Ramirez stands out on his best days as a high-class performer with an RPR of 138 and has shown solid recent form, most notably a win last time out from figures of 740-14. The four-year-old steps up in trip to 2m4f today, an uncharted distance that adds an element of unknown, while he also has no experience of yielding to soft ground. Andrew McNamara’s yard records a 7% strike rate at Roscommon from 28 runs with an A/E of 0.72, and the combination with claiming jockey Aidan Kelly shows a 2/7 record overall though the rider is still seeking his first success from 17 rides at the track. Settling typically in midfield, Berto Ramirez is well placed to benefit if the anticipated strong pace materialises and the leaders come back to him late on this soft surface.
Polepatrick KTB Fit 53/100
Polepatrick possesses high-class ability for one with just five runs under his belt, boasting an RPR of 128 and TS of 96, capped by a decisive odds-on win at Tramore last time following a break from form figures of 85/31-. Henry De Bromhead’s yard has a solid 17% strike rate at Roscommon from 167 runs with an A/E of 0.99, while Mike O’Connor operates at an 8% strike rate from 24 rides here. The six-year-old steps up to 2m4f for the first time, a move that looks logical on pedigree but remains an unknown, and like his rivals he is unproven on yielding to soft ground. A habitual front-runner who tends to make the running or race on the pace, he is sure to set a strong gallop that could test the stamina of the small field.
Chanceawetmorning KTB Fit 50/100
Chanceawetmorning is a high-class performer on his figures with an RPR of 128 and TS of 110, arriving in decent order after two wins from his last four starts with form figures of 2P1-13. Gordon Elliott’s team posts a 16% strike rate at Roscommon from 285 runs with an A/E of 0.93, though claiming jockey James Smith is still seeking his first success from nine rides at the track and their combined record stands at 5/54. The six-year-old is unproven on yielding to soft ground and makes his first appearance at Roscommon today. Another who tends to make the running or race on the pace, he will be prominent from the outset in what is expected to be a strongly run affair.
KTB verdict
The small field still carries plenty of depth given the high RPRs on offer and the fact that each horse has shown winning form recently. Berto Ramirez is taken as the selection; his RPR of 138 marks him out as the highest-rated in the line-up on his best days, recent form is solid and his mid-division run-style looks ideally suited to a race in which a strong pace is likely to test those up front. The main dangers are the two front-runners, Polepatrick and Chanceawetmorning, both of whom bring high-class ability and proven recent wins, though the step up in trip and the unknown of the soft ground add layers of uncertainty for all three.
KTB Selection Berto Ramirez
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 09:25 UTC, 8 Jun. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Berto Ramirez | 7/2 | PricedUp Bet |
| Polepatrick | 5/4 | BoyleSports |
| Chanceawetmorning | 8/5 | Grosvenor Sports |
This is the narrative read of the 5:18 Roscommon. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Roscommon racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the highest RPR in the field?
Berto Ramirez with an RPR of 138.
How many of these runners have previous experience of yielding to soft ground?
None; all three are unproven on the ground.
Which pair are expected to set a strong pace?
Polepatrick and Chanceawetmorning, both habitual front-runners.
What is Gordon Elliott’s strike rate at Roscommon?
16% strike rate from 285 runs with an A/E of 0.93.
Which horse is stepping up in trip for the first time today?
Polepatrick, making his first start at 2m4f.
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