4:00 Southwell
This Class 4 maiden hurdle at Southwell over 2m4f88y on good ground serves as an ARC Summer Novices' Brush Hurdle qualifier and carries GBB Race status. A field of nine includes several smart performers on figures who have shown placed form over hurdles without yet breaking their maiden tag. The KTB Fit ratings point to Manalishi as the clear top pick on 63, with Who's Glen, Rock Sensation and Hawk's Rock closely grouped behind on 52-53, while the remainder are rated 47 or lower.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is muddling and tactical with medium confidence and no obvious front-runner, which should play to those able to race close to the pace rather than those forced to come from the rear. Most of the principals are held-up types who produce their effort late, though Hawk's Rock and a couple of the outsiders prefer to race prominently. The key question is whether the race will develop enough pace for the hold-up performers to be delivered effectively or whether the prominent runners can dictate matters and steal a march.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Manalishi KTB Selection63/100Manalishi is a smart performer who has placed on all three starts over hurdles and showed strong form when a clear second at Uttoxeter over this trip last month…
- 2Who's Glen53/100Smart performer on his figures who has been placed on both starts at this trip without winning.
- 3Rock Sensation52/100Smart performer who won a good-ground bumper here on debut and has placed in a Listed event at Cheltenham.
- 4Hawk's Rock52/100Smart performer who showed useful form when finishing close up in two hurdle starts last month.
- 5Granite Sands47/100Granite Sands showed some promise when keeping on for third at Stratford last month after a poor debut.
- 6Trigger The Light40/100Trigger The Light showed some promise when third in a Warwick bumper on debut but was pulled up on his hurdling start at this trip.
- 7Run Happy40/100Run Happy showed some promise when fifth of 14 in a pointing bumper at Aintree last month on rules debut.
- 8Papillondelumiere39/100Papillondelumiere showed fair form when third on hurdling debut then ran to a similar level when sixth here over two miles last season.
- 9Jacquette33/100Jacquette has shown very little in four starts under rules with a recent string of poor efforts and an RPR of just 80 that marks her out as fair at best.
The contenders
Manalishi KTB Fit 63/100
Manalishi is a smart performer who has placed on all three starts over hurdles, most notably when a clear second at Uttoxeter over this trip last month. He has solid placed efforts at today's distance and remains lightly raced with only four career runs under his belt. The seven-year-old is usually held up and produces his effort late, a style that could suit if the race develops some pace in this muddling affair. Richard Phillips has an 8% strike rate at Southwell from 134 runs while Harry Bannister's record at the track reads 11% from 173 rides. Manalishi has been placed on all three starts on good ground without winning, and he has no course form on record.
Who's Glen KTB Fit 53/100
Who's Glen is a smart performer on his figures and has been placed on both starts at this trip without winning. He has been consistent rather than progressive of late and steps up in trip again today while making his first appearance at Southwell. The five-year-old is usually held up and produces his effort late, fitting the profile that could be favoured in a tactical contest. Donald McCain has a modest 7% strike rate at the track from 169 runs and Theo Gillard is 0% from 31 rides here. Who's Glen has been placed once from three starts on good ground and has no course form on record.
Rock Sensation KTB Fit 52/100
Rock Sensation is a smart performer who won a good-ground bumper here on debut and has placed in a Listed event at Cheltenham. Recent hurdling efforts have been underwhelming though she shaped with some promise on her first run for this yard last month. The six-year-old steps up in trip today having been well held in one previous try at this distance and is usually held up, producing her effort late. Nick Scholfield is 0% from one run at Southwell while Jonathan Burke has a 14% strike rate from 166 rides at the track. She has one win and one place from two starts on good ground and has won here from one visit.
Hawk's Rock KTB Fit 52/100
Hawk's Rock is a smart performer who showed useful form when finishing close up in two hurdle starts last month. He drops back in trip today having looked stretched by 2m6f at Cartmel and has never won over this distance. The six-year-old usually races handily on or close to the lead, a run-style that could be an advantage in this muddling and tactical affair. John Joseph Hanlon is 0% from 11 runs at Southwell and Paddy Hanlon is also 0% from three rides here. Hawk's Rock has been placed once from four starts on good ground and has no course form on record.
The rest of the field
Granite SandsKTB Fit 47/100
Granite Sands showed some promise when keeping on for third at Stratford last month after a poor debut. He is a smart performer on his best figures yet has been well held in both starts here and at this trip, and the yard has a 0% strike-rate from 18 runs at Southwell.
Trigger The LightKTB Fit 40/100
Trigger The Light showed some promise when third in a Warwick bumper on debut but was pulled up on his hurdling start at this trip. He returns from a seven-month break after wind surgery and has only two career runs to his name, leaving the assessment very cautious.
Run HappyKTB Fit 40/100
Run Happy showed some promise when fifth of 14 in a pointing bumper at Aintree last month on rules debut. He now steps up markedly in trip for this hurdling debut which asks a fresh question of him, and the Easterbys are 0-5 at Southwell.
PapillondelumiereKTB Fit 39/100
Papillondelumiere showed fair form when third on hurdling debut then ran to a similar level when sixth here over two miles last season. He was well held on return last month and steps up markedly in trip today for a yard with a 0% strike rate from six runs at Southwell.
JacquetteKTB Fit 33/100
Jacquette has shown very little in four starts under rules with a recent string of poor efforts and an RPR of just 80 that marks her out as fair at best. The switch to a longer trip is an unknown and the switch of yards adds uncertainty while the trainer is 0% from 19 runs at Southwell.
KTB verdict
Manalishi stands out as the KTB Selection. He has placed on all three starts over hurdles including a clear second at Uttoxeter over this trip last month, remains lightly raced with solid placed efforts at the distance, and his held-up style should be suited if the race develops any pace in this muddling affair. The main dangers are Who's Glen, who brings smart figures and placed form at the trip though he is dropping in class and first time at Southwell, and the course winner Rock Sensation who shaped with some promise on her latest start. Hawk's Rock cannot be dismissed either having shown useful form in two recent hurdle starts and possessing a handy run-style that could prove beneficial.
KTB Selection Manalishi
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 06:55 UTC, 9 Jun. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Manalishi | 11/8 | BetTom |
| Who's Glen | 9/2 | 7Bet |
| Rock Sensation | 9/1 | William Hill |
| Hawk's Rock | 11/4 | William Hill |
| Granite Sands | 6/1 | William Hill |
| Trigger The Light | 33/1 | Sporting Index |
| Run Happy | 16/1 | William Hill |
| Papillondelumiere | 250/1 | Midnite |
| Jacquette | 250/1 | Midnite |
This is the narrative read of the 4:00 Southwell. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Southwell racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has course winning form at Southwell?
Rock Sensation won a good-ground bumper here on debut and has one win from one visit to the track.
How many horses are usually held up?
Five of the nine runners are described as usually held up and producing their effort late: Manalishi, Who's Glen, Rock Sensation, Granite Sands and Jacquette.
Which horses have shown placed form on good ground?
Manalishi has been placed on all three starts on good, Who's Glen once from three, Hawk's Rock once from four, and Rock Sensation has one win from two on good.
Who is the only horse to have won at this track?
Rock Sensation is the only horse with a win at Southwell, from one visit in a bumper.
Which principal is dropping back in trip today?
Hawk's Rock drops back in trip having looked stretched by 2m6f at Cartmel last time.
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