4:50 Yarmouth
This Class 4 handicap over a mile and three at Yarmouth on good to soft ground brings together an interesting mix of 11 runners, several with useful form on the figures but plenty of unknowns around course, trip and surface. The KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched at the top, with Gorgeous Mr George heading the list on 63, just ahead of Sprightly Dance on 61. Recent form is mixed across the field and the muddling, tactical pace shape is expected to favour those able to race close to the pace or time their efforts well from off it.
How the race shapes up
With no obvious front-runner the race is likely to be run at a muddling, tactical gallop that should play to those positioned handily or able to come from just off the speed. Prominent racers such as Sprightly Dance, Advancing and Renewal could well find themselves with an advantage in a race where the pace may not be strong. The key question is whether the hold-up performers, several of whom have strong course form, can pick their way through and land a telling blow late.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Gorgeous Mr George KTB Selection63/100Useful performer who has won three times at this track including over today's trip.
- 2Sprightly Dance61/100Sprightly Dance is a useful performer on the figures with an RPR of 98 from just three runs.
- 3Where's Freddy56/100Useful performer who has shown his best form at this track with placed efforts on his last two visits.
- 4Mythical Guest53/100Mythical Guest is a useful performer on his best days with a recent RPR of 97 and has shown he can be competitive on good to soft ground where he has placed onc…
- 5Advancing53/100Useful performer who has won three times at this trip from nine attempts and arrives in decent nick judged on his recent form figures.
- 6Cavolo Nero51/100Cavolo Nero is a useful performer on his figures and arrives in decent form after three straight placed efforts.
- 7Renewal50/100Useful performer who showed solid placed form at this trip last year and brings a strong RPR of 97 into the race.
- 8Carron50/100Useful performer who has won twice at this trip from nine attempts and arrives in reasonable form having posted an RPR of 96 when third last time out.
- 9Bella Perla48/100Useful performer who arrives in decent form having won twice at this trip from just four attempts.
- 10Padua46/100Padua is a useful performer on his best figures and showed that when winning at Haydock and finishing fourth in a stronger race at Sandown last season.
- 11Percival42/100Percival showed useful form when winning on heavy ground over 1m2f at Saint-Cloud last November yet was then well beaten over 1m4f.
The contenders
Gorgeous Mr George KTB Fit 63/100
Gorgeous Mr George is a useful performer who has won three times at this track, including over today's trip. He has been consistent rather than progressive in recent seasons and was well held in both starts this year, yet the RPRs still stack up respectably. The trainer's solid 17% strike rate at Yarmouth adds confidence, while he has won once and been placed twice from three runs on good to soft ground. A course winner from nine runs here, he is drawn in stall two and usually held up, producing his effort late. The jockey has a 9% strike rate at the track from 223 rides and the combination of course knowledge and proven surface gives him a solid profile.
Sprightly Dance KTB Fit 61/100
Sprightly Dance is a useful performer on the figures boasting an RPR of 98 from just three runs. She has placed on her only visit to Yarmouth and is dropping back to a trip at which she has already been placed once. Roger Varian holds a 21% strike rate here from 284 runs, while the jockey has a 16% strike rate at Yarmouth from 416 rides. The going remains an unknown on such limited evidence as she has had no runs on good to soft. Usually racing prominently and drawn in stall six, she steps up in class but brings strong credentials on her best form.
Where's Freddy KTB Fit 56/100
Where's Freddy is a useful performer who has shown his best form at this track with placed efforts on his last two visits, including a second, a third and a fifth from three runs. He has won on good to soft ground and at this trip though his recent form is patchy. The wide draw in stall 11 is far from ideal for a horse who is usually held up and produces his effort late. Trainer Stuart Williams has a 10% strike rate from 580 runs here while jockey Cieren Fallon has a 10% strike rate at Yarmouth from 185 rides. An RPR of 100 underlines his class but the draw and inconsistent profile are negatives.
Mythical Guest KTB Fit 53/100
Mythical Guest is a useful performer on his best days with a recent RPR of 97 and has shown he can be competitive on good to soft ground where he has placed once from three starts. He has course form having won here from seven runs and is proven at this trip having placed on eight of thirteen attempts though he is yet to score over it. Usually held up with high confidence in that run-style, he is dropping in class from stall 10. The trainer's modest 9% strike rate from 566 runs at Yarmouth is a negative, yet the jockey's 9% strike rate from 417 rides here is in line with expectations and the placed form on the surface offers hope.
Advancing KTB Fit 53/100
Advancing is a useful performer who has won three times at this trip from nine attempts and arrives in decent nick judged on his recent form figures. He is dropping in class from stall one and usually races prominently, on or close to the lead. First run at Yarmouth and no experience of good to soft ground both leave questions to answer. Marco Botti has an 11% strike rate here from 335 runs while the jockey has a 12% strike rate at Yarmouth from 218 rides. An RPR of 96 suggests he can be competitive if the surface and venue prove suitable.
The rest of the field
Cavolo NeroKTB Fit 51/100
Cavolo Nero is a useful performer on his figures and arrives in decent form after three straight placed efforts. He drops back to a trip he has won over but has never tackled good to soft ground and now tries first-time headgear. The yard's modest 12% strike rate at Yarmouth adds a note of caution.
RenewalKTB Fit 50/100
Renewal is a useful performer who showed solid placed form at this trip last year and brings a strong RPR of 97 into the race. Recent reappearance at Thirsk was poor though and she clearly needs to bounce back from that. Trainer has a 15% strike rate at Yarmouth from 75 runs while the jockeys record at the track is not supplied.
CarronKTB Fit 50/100
Carron is a useful performer who has won twice at this trip from nine attempts and arrives in reasonable form having posted an RPR of 96 when third last time out. He has only tried good to soft once without placing which leaves a slight question on the ground today while this is his first run at Yarmouth. Trainer George Boughey has a solid 17% strike rate here from 150 runs.
Bella PerlaKTB Fit 48/100
Bella Perla is a useful performer who arrives in decent form having won twice at this trip from just four attempts. First run at Yarmouth and no experience of good to soft ground both add an element of uncertainty. Trainer operates at a 13% strike rate here from 156 runs.
PaduaKTB Fit 46/100
Padua is a useful performer on his best figures and showed that when winning at Haydock and finishing fourth in a stronger race at Sandown last season. He steps up in trip today having been placed once in three runs at this distance and has been gelded since his last run. The trainer has a 10% strike rate from 61 runs at Yarmouth while the jockey has no recorded figures at the track.
PercivalKTB Fit 42/100
Percival showed useful form when winning on heavy ground over 1m2f at Saint-Cloud last November yet was then well beaten over 1m4f. He now drops back in trip for the first time with a hood applied on his stable debut following a 12,000gns sale. With only two career runs and no Yarmouth experience the overall picture remains low-confidence.
KTB verdict
Gorgeous Mr George is the KTB Selection. A three-time course winner who has already scored over today's trip, he brings solid RPRs even on his two runs this year and boasts a proven record on good to soft ground where he has placed twice from three starts. The trainer's healthy strike rate at Yarmouth adds further confidence in a race where his hold-up style should be well suited to the expected muddling pace. Main dangers are Sprightly Dance, who brings the best raw figures and strong trainer and jockey form at the track, and Where's Freddy, who has shown his best efforts here despite the wide draw. Mythical Guest and Advancing are others who can feature if the unknowns fall their way.
KTB Selection Gorgeous Mr George
This is the narrative read of the 4:50 Yarmouth. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Yarmouth racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the strongest course record at Yarmouth?
Gorgeous Mr George has won three times at this track from nine runs including over today's trip.
How does the pace shape influence the race?
The muddling, tactical pace shape with no obvious front-runner should suit those ridden close to the pace or able to time their run from just off it.
Which principals have proven form on good to soft ground?
Gorgeous Mr George has one win from three on good to soft with two placings, Where's Freddy has one win from five on the surface with one placing, and Mythical Guest has placed once from three starts on good to soft.
Who are the prominent runners in the field?
Sprightly Dance, Advancing and Renewal are all usually raced prominently, on or close to the lead.
What are the main unknowns for the leading fancies?
Sprightly Dance, Advancing, Cavolo Nero, Bella Perla, Padua and Percival all have no experience of good to soft ground, while several others make their first appearance at Yarmouth.
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