8:20 Limerick
This 2m1f handicap at Limerick on good to yielding ground features a field of 16 modest performers in a race where the KTB Fit Scores top out at just 61 for the selection. With no standout class in the line-up and several runners stepping up markedly in trip, the contest looks open on paper though the numbers point to a muddling affair that could suit those with proven stamina and track form. The KTB Intelligence highlights a mixture of recent improvers, consistent place-getters and out-of-form types, with the pace shape suggesting a tactical race that will reward those positioned close to the speed.
How the race shapes up
With no obvious front-runner in a muddling and tactical pace shape, the race is likely to be run at a steady gallop early on, suiting runners ridden prominently or in midfield who can pounce when the tempo lifts. Autumn Twist and Our Lucky Lady, both usually to the fore, should be well placed to take advantage of any dawdling in front, while the likes of Bynx and several held-up types will be looking to thread through late as the field bunches. The key question is whether the extra distance exposes limitations in those coming from shorter trips or allows the more stoutly bred performers to pull clear in the closing stages.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Bynx KTB Selection61/100Modest performer who has been placed on his last three completed starts at this track including a third here over hurdles.
- 2Autumn Twist53/100Autumn Twist is a fair handicapper who has shown enough at this trip to suggest the step up from 1m4f will suit.
- 3Mr Rango49/100Modest performer who has been on the go for a long time and looks to have little in hand off this mark.
- 4Tatum49/100Modest performer who has shown some spark on good to yielding ground, placing twice from three starts without winning.
- 5Our Lucky Lady48/100Our Lucky Lady is a modest performer who showed improved form when winning last time out.
- 6Ellaat47/100Ellaat is a fair 10-year-old who has won over this trip and at this track from limited attempts.
- 7Loyal Touch47/100Loyal Touch is a fair performer on his best days but has been below form in recent starts and looks vulnerable from a mark of 78.
- 8Riyami45/100Modest performer who has been placed over this trip but is still winless after 35 starts.
- 9Miss Australie45/100Miss Australie is a fair performer on her best days but has been inconsistent and showed little spark when last seen over 1m4f.
- 10Lauderdale King45/100Modest performer who showed some promise when stepped up in trip for his handicap debut at Cork last month, finishing a staying-on third over an extended 1m2f.
- 11Quiz Test43/100Modest performer who has been consistent enough without winning in 22 starts.
- 12Good Onya Mate43/100Modest performer who showed some promise when a clear second over 1m6f at Gowran last month on his second handicap start.
- 13Pass The Buck42/100Modest performer who has shown little in five runs and was well held on handicap debut last time.
- 14Almenfee41/100Almenfee has shown very little in five runs for this yard with a recent form line of 000-89 and modest ratings that leave him short of the standard required her…
- 15Sioux Grit39/100Sioux Grit is a modest performer on the balance of his 70 RPR and four modest efforts this year after a long lay-off.
- 16Nod Of Approval39/100Modest performer who shaped well when second in a Cork handicap on his most recent start, coming from well back after a slow start over 1m4f.
The contenders
Bynx KTB Fit 61/100
Bynx is a modest performer who has been placed on his last three completed starts at this track, including a third here over hurdles. He steps up in trip today having won once from eight attempts at this distance though his recent form has been over shorter, with figures of 3330-6. The Martin Hassett yard brings a 22% strike rate at Limerick and an A/E of 2.2 from 23 runs, while jockey Nathan Crosse operates at 8% here with an A/E of 0.9 from 88 rides. He has a record of one win from five on good to yielding ground with two places and has been placed from two runs at the course without winning. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he is the KTB Selection in a race that may play to his strengths.
Autumn Twist KTB Fit 53/100
Autumn Twist is a fair handicapper who has shown enough at this trip to suggest the step up from 1m4f will suit. She has placed over course and distance on good to yielding ground and her recent form figures of 183-56 indicate she remains competitive at this level, carrying an RPR of 79. The Denis Gerard Hogan stable has an 8% strike rate at Limerick from 425 runs with an A/E of 0.75, and while the 7lb claimer Alan Casey is 0% from three rides here the combination is 3/48 with an A/E of 1.18. Usually racing prominently on or close to the lead, she has been placed once from two starts on good to yielding. Her course record shows a third on her only visit.
Mr Rango KTB Fit 49/100
Mr Rango is a modest performer who has been on the go for a long time and looks to have little in hand off this mark. The James M Barcoe yard has a 2% strike rate at Limerick with an A/E of 0.41 from 48 runs, though jockey Siobhan Rutledge brings a solid 9% record here and an A/E of 1.53 from 22 rides. He has shown nothing on good to yielding ground from four runs without a win or place and has been unplaced in two previous attempts at this trip. With recent form of 047458 and an RPR of 74 he settled typically in midfield. His sole course run resulted in ninth.
Tatum KTB Fit 49/100
Tatum is a modest performer who has shown some spark on good to yielding ground, placing twice from three starts without winning. She steps up markedly in trip today from 1m2f and that asks a fresh question of a horse whose recent form has been mixed, with figures of 3121-7. Noel Meade and Colin Keane team up with respective Limerick strike rates of 15% and 14%, though the yard's A/E of 0.82 from 386 runs is below par. Usually held up and producing effort late, she was 11th on her only previous run at the track. Her RPR of 73 suggests she is in the mix on her best days.
Our Lucky Lady KTB Fit 48/100
Our Lucky Lady is a modest performer who showed improved form when winning last time out. She steps up in trip today having already won at this distance and has a solid record on good to yielding ground with one win and two places from three runs. The P G Fahey yard posts a 13% strike rate at Limerick from 30 runs with an A/E of 1.24, while the 7lb claimer Jessica O'Gorman is 0% from four rides here though the partnership is 2/12 with an A/E of 1.86. Usually racing prominently on or close to the lead, she has no course form on record yet arrives with an RPR of 67 after her latest success.
The rest of the field
EllaatKTB Fit 47/100
Ellaat is a fair 10-year-old who has won over this trip and at this track from limited attempts. He has been out of form for some time with a string of poor efforts and the yard's record here offers little encouragement while the jockey's modest strike rate at Limerick adds to the negatives on a day when he drops back in trip.
Loyal TouchKTB Fit 47/100
Loyal Touch is a fair performer on his best days but has been below form in recent starts and looks vulnerable from a mark of 78. He has no experience at Limerick and is only 1-13 on good to yielding ground, while dropping back in trip having been well held over 2m3½f last time.
RiyamiKTB Fit 45/100
Riyami is a modest performer who has been placed over this trip but is still winless after 35 starts. Has run well enough at Limerick in the past and handles good to yielding ground, yet his recent form is patchy and he drops back from 3m today.
Miss AustralieKTB Fit 45/100
Miss Australie is a fair performer on her best days but has been inconsistent and showed little spark when last seen over 1m4f. She steps up markedly in trip today which asks a fresh question while her record on good to yielding ground is limited to a single unplaced run.
Lauderdale KingKTB Fit 45/100
Lauderdale King is a modest performer who showed some promise when stepped up in trip for his handicap debut at Cork last month, finishing a staying-on third over an extended 1m2f. He is now tried at 2m1f which looks a logical move though he was well held on his only previous run here at Limerick.
Quiz TestKTB Fit 43/100
Quiz Test is a modest performer who has been consistent enough without winning in 22 starts. Only one previous try at this trip and he steps back up from 1m6f today while showing placed form on good to yielding ground.
Good Onya MateKTB Fit 43/100
Good Onya Mate is a modest performer who showed some promise when a clear second over 1m6f at Gowran last month on his second handicap start. He steps up in trip today for a yard with a solid 15% strike rate at Limerick from a big sample while the lightly-raced profile means both going and stamina remain untested questions.
Pass The BuckKTB Fit 42/100
Pass The Buck is a modest performer who has shown little in five runs and was well held on handicap debut last time. Steps up markedly in trip today which asks a fresh question of him.
AlmenfeeKTB Fit 41/100
Almenfee has shown very little in five runs for this yard with a recent form line of 000-89 and modest ratings that leave him short of the standard required here. He steps up markedly in trip today having last run over 1m4f so the longer distance is an unknown that could suit or expose him further.
Sioux GritKTB Fit 39/100
Sioux Grit is a modest performer on the balance of his 70 RPR and four modest efforts this year after a long lay-off. He steps up markedly in trip on ground he has tried only once and makes his first visit to this track.
Nod Of ApprovalKTB Fit 39/100
Nod Of Approval is a modest performer who shaped well when second in a Cork handicap on his most recent start, coming from well back after a slow start over 1m4f. Half-brother to Irish Cesarewitch winner Puturhandstogether so the step up to 2m1f is an interesting move that could bring further improvement.
KTB verdict
Bynx stands out as the KTB Selection. A modest performer with placed form on his last three completed starts at Limerick, including over hurdles, he steps up in trip having already won at the distance and benefits from a yard with a strong 22% strike rate at the venue. Usually held up, he can produce his effort late in what is set to be a tactical, muddling race. The main dangers are Autumn Twist, who has shown enough at the trip and has course and distance placing on good to yielding, and Our Lucky Lady, who arrives on the back of an improved win with a good record on the surface. Tatum and Mr Rango add further depth but both have questions to answer on trip and ground respectively.
KTB Selection Bynx
This is the narrative read of the 8:20 Limerick. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Limerick racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the strongest trainer record at Limerick in this field?
Bynx, with trainer Martin Hassett recording a 22% strike rate at Limerick and an A/E of 2.2 from 23 runs.
How does the pace shape influence the race?
The muddling and tactical pace shape with no obvious front-runner should suit those ridden close to the pace, as several runners are prominent or mid-division.
Which runners are stepping up markedly in trip?
Tatum from 1m2f, Miss Australie from 1m4f, Pass The Buck, Almenfee from 1m4f, Sioux Grit, and Nod Of Approval from 1m4f are all stepping up markedly in trip.
Who has the best recent course form at Limerick?
Bynx has been placed on his last three completed starts at the track, while Ellaat has won here and Riyami has been placed.
Which horse is unproven on good to yielding ground?
Lauderdale King has had no runs on good to yielding, while Almenfee is also unproven on the surface.
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