5:40 Worcester
This Class 3 handicap chase at Worcester over 2m7f on good ground brings together a competitive field of ten where the KTB Fit ratings point to a tight contest at the top. Stumps Or Slips tops the list on 76 with Grand Clermont, Excello, Ideal Des Bordes and Disco Davis all closely bunched between 65 and 71, underlining the depth on these figures. Several runners are stepping up or dropping in class while the strong pace anticipated should play its part in deciding matters.
How the race shapes up
With a strong pace likely and two or more habitual front-runners declared, the race is set to be run at a good clip that could see the leaders come back to the field late. Stumps Or Slips, Presentandcounting and Bagheera Ginge are all prone to making the running or racing prominently, while Grand Clermont and My Bobby Dazzler should track that pace. This shape poses the key question of whether the prominent types can sustain their effort or if the hold-up performers such as Excello, Ideal Des Bordes, Disco Davis, Peaky Boy and Samuel Spade will be best placed to pick up the pieces.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Stumps Or Slips KTB Selection76/100Stumps Or Slips arrives in strong order after three straight wins and carries a high-class RPR of 131.
- 2Grand Clermont71/100High-class performer on his day with a recent win at this trip and solid placed efforts on good ground.
- 3Excello68/100High-class performer on his day with RPR and Topspeed figures to match and he has been placed over today's trip without winning.
- 4Ideal Des Bordes68/100High-class performer with a solid RPR of 137 who arrives off the back of two placed efforts last season.
- 5Disco Davis65/100Disco Davis is a high-class performer on his best days with an RPR of 135 and has shown he can be competitive at Worcester where he has been placed once from tw…
- 6Presentandcounting64/100High-class performer who arrives in solid form after a recent second and holds strong course connections having won two of three starts here.
- 7My Bobby Dazzler60/100My Bobby Dazzler remains a high-class performer on his best days with RPR and Topspeed figures that still stack up.
- 8Bagheera Ginge60/100High-class performer who arrives in form after a recent win and has strong placed efforts at this track including two seconds.
- 9Peaky Boy54/100High-class on his day with an RPR of 132 and Topspeed of 118.
- 10Samuel Spade53/100Samuel Spade has high-class ability on these figures and has won over today's trip.
The contenders
Stumps Or Slips KTB Fit 76/100
Stumps Or Slips arrives in strong order after three straight wins and carries a high-class RPR of 131. He has won twice from eight starts at Worcester and boasts a solid record on good ground with eight wins from 24 starts plus three wins from four at today's trip. The yard has no recorded runners at the track so that side remains neutral while the jockey's record here is also unknown. As a habitual front-runner he is sure to set the early fractions in a race where the pace is expected to be strong. Stepping up in class is the only slight concern but his recent dominance makes him a major player. The selection.
Grand Clermont KTB Fit 71/100
Grand Clermont is a high-class performer on his day with a recent win at this trip and solid placed efforts on good ground. The yard's 15 percent strike-rate at Worcester from a big sample is respectable enough and the horse arrives in form. First run here is neutral given the overall profile. Racing prominently should see him well placed to track the strong pace that is anticipated. With an RPR of 137 he has the raw ability to figure prominently if the leaders falter late on. Stepping up in class adds a layer of difficulty but he remains a serious contender.
Excello KTB Fit 68/100
Excello is a high-class performer on his day with RPR and Topspeed figures to match and he has been placed over today's trip without winning. Recent form is patchy though and the step up from 2m5f asks a fresh question. Henderson has a solid 22% strike rate at Worcester from a big sample while Bowen takes the ride. His hold-up style means he will be towards the rear early in a race that should be strongly run, which could play to his strengths if the pace collapses. Dropping in class is a positive but the recent inconsistency cannot be ignored.
Ideal Des Bordes KTB Fit 68/100
Ideal Des Bordes is a high-class performer with a solid RPR of 137 who arrives off the back of two placed efforts last season. He drops back from 3m2f to a trip where he has been placed twice in five runs without winning, while the good ground looks suitable given his record of one win and two places from three starts. Henderson has a 22% strike rate at Worcester from 423 runs and this is the horse's first appearance here. Usually held up, he will be looking to come from off the pace in what is set to be a strongly run affair. Dropping in class should help his cause.
Disco Davis KTB Fit 65/100
Disco Davis is a high-class performer on his best days with an RPR of 135 and has shown he can be competitive at Worcester where he has been placed once from two starts. He has been out of form for some time though with three pulled-ups in his last five starts and only one win from 15 runs in the last year. The step up to 2m7f is an unknown at this level while the yard's modest 4% strike-rate at the track adds little confidence. Racing from the rear in a strongly run race could suit but the overall profile suggests he has plenty to prove at present.
The rest of the field
PresentandcountingKTB Fit 64/100
Presentandcounting is a high-class performer who arrives in solid form after a recent second and holds strong course connections having won two of three starts here. Age is now against him at twelve and he has been a bit inconsistent at this trip with just one win from ten attempts. Trainer holds a 13% strike-rate at Worcester from a large sample while the jockeys record at the track is not supplied.
My Bobby DazzlerKTB Fit 60/100
My Bobby Dazzler remains a high-class performer on his best days with RPR and Topspeed figures that still stack up. He has won over this trip in the past and showed he retains plenty of ability when fourth last time after a break, though the drop back from 3m5f asks a fresh question. Worcester suits him well having won on his only previous visit here while the trainer's modest 10% strike rate from 52 runs at the track is worth noting.
Bagheera GingeKTB Fit 60/100
Bagheera Ginge is a high-class performer who arrives in form after a recent win and has strong placed efforts at this track including two seconds. He has won twice over today's trip and acts on good ground though his overall strike rate on it is modest. The yard's solid 24% record at Worcester adds to his claims.
Peaky BoyKTB Fit 54/100
Peaky Boy is high-class on his day with an RPR of 132 and Topspeed of 118. He showed some spark when third on return last time but has been largely out of form otherwise and is 0-2 at this trip. The Jonjo O'Neill yard has an 8% strike rate from 91 runs at Worcester while the horse makes his first appearance here.
Samuel SpadeKTB Fit 53/100
Samuel Spade has high-class ability on these figures and has won over today's trip. He showed a bit more spark when fourth here last time though his sole course visit brought no win or place. The yard posts a solid 18% strike rate at Worcester from a big sample.
KTB verdict
Stumps Or Slips is the KTB Selection. He comes into this race in excellent heart after three consecutive victories, boasts a strong Worcester record including two wins from eight starts, and his proven effectiveness on good ground and at this trip make him ideally suited to the conditions. As a front-runner in a race that is set to be strongly run he should be able to dictate matters and may prove hard to reel in if the pace takes its toll on those behind. The main dangers are likely to come from Grand Clermont, who has high-class form and a recent win at the trip, and the Henderson pair Excello and Ideal Des Bordes who both drop in class and can benefit if the race falls apart late.
KTB Selection Stumps Or Slips
This is the narrative read of the 5:40 Worcester. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Worcester racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the strongest recent winning sequence?
Stumps Or Slips arrives after three straight wins.
How does the strong pace shape affect the hold-up horses?
The strong pace could collapse late, which would favour hold-up horses such as Excello, Ideal Des Bordes, Disco Davis, Peaky Boy and Samuel Spade.
Which runners have course wins at Worcester?
Stumps Or Slips has won here twice from eight starts, Presentandcounting has won two from three, and My Bobby Dazzler has won on his only previous visit.
Who has the best jockey record at Worcester according to the supplied stats?
Mr Zac Baker has a 38% strike rate at Worcester with an A/E of 2.66 from 13 rides.
Which trainer has the highest strike rate at Worcester in this field?
Nicky Henderson has a 22% strike rate at Worcester from 423 runs.
18+. Analysis and entertainment only — no guarantee of profit. KTB race previews are published for interest and are not betting advice. Only ever stake what you can comfortably afford to lose, and set your own limits. Free, confidential help: the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133 (GamCare.org.uk); in Ireland, the GamblingCare.ie helpline on 1800 936 725. Self-exclude at any time via GAMSTOP.
More from Kickthebookies