5:03 Yarmouth
This Class 6 classified stakes over 1m2f23y on soft ground at Yarmouth features an 11-runner field where the KTB numbers point to a competitive but modest contest. The principals are headed by Zafaan with a Fit Score of 58, followed closely by Wrist Art on 54 and a trio on 52 comprising Dors Delight, Sporty Socks and Sweetstevie. Overall the ratings underline a race lacking depth, with several runners carrying modest RPRs in the low 60s or below and limited recent form to recommend them.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is described as muddling and tactical with medium confidence, as there is no obvious front-runner in the field. This should play to those capable of racing close to the pace or producing their effort from just off it, with Wrist Art and Sapphire Dream among those usually prominent. The key question is which of the hold-up performers, of which there are several including the selection Zafaan, can time their late challenge effectively in a race that may not be strongly run early.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Zafaan KTB Selection58/100Modest performer who won over this trip earlier in his career and has scored once from three runs at Yarmouth.
- 2Wrist Art54/100Modest performer who has dropped to a workable mark but has been largely out of form this year.
- 3Dors Delight52/100Modest performer with a recent string of modest efforts and an RPR of 60 that leaves him vulnerable at this level.
- 4Sporty Socks52/100Sporty Socks has shown only limited ability with an RPR of 52 and has failed to win or place in eight career starts including two runs here at Yarmouth where he…
- 5Sweetstevie52/100Sweetstevie has shown very little in three starts at Southwell on AW this year, finishing well beaten each time with an RPR of just 42.
- 6Trackman43/100Trackman is a limited performer who has been largely out of his depth for some time and rarely threatens to win.
- 7Rockafeller Skank43/100Limited horse who showed very little in three runs last autumn but was a different proposition when winning a soft-ground classified event over 1m here yesterda…
- 8Wingstar43/100Wingstar has shown very little in eight starts this year with a recent form line of 446409 and ratings that mark him out as limited.
- 9Sunset In Paris41/100Limited performer who has been out of form for some time and rarely threatens to win.
- 10Sapphire Dream41/100Sapphire Dream has shown limited ability so far with an RPR of 51 and Topspeed of 42 from ten runs.
- 11Churchill's Spirit39/100Limited horse who showed little in three starts over 7f last year and arrives here off a six-month break.
The contenders
Zafaan KTB Fit 58/100
Zafaan is a modest performer who won over this trip earlier in his career and has scored once from three runs at Yarmouth. He drops back from 2m which should suit him better though his only soft-ground run brought no joy. The trainer maintains a strong 33% strike rate here from a small sample with an A/E of 1.01 from six runs, while the jockey has a 12% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 1.11 from 41 rides. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he has figures of RPR 61 and TS 57. Recent form reads 81555- and he comes into this dropping in class from draw 10.
Wrist Art KTB Fit 54/100
Wrist Art is a modest performer who has dropped to a workable mark but has been largely out of form this year. He drops back in trip to 1m2f where he has placed both starts without winning and acts on soft ground with a win and three places from eight attempts. The trainer has a solid 20% strike rate at Yarmouth from 60 runs with an A/E of 1.26 though the trainer and jockey combination shows 0/15 with an A/E of 0.00. Usually races handily on or close to the lead, he has figures of RPR 62 and TS 49. Recent form reads 708635 and he too is dropping in class from draw 9, though this is his first run at the track.
Dors Delight KTB Fit 52/100
Dors Delight is a modest performer with a recent string of modest efforts and an RPR of 60 that leaves him vulnerable at this level. He steps up in trip today having won once from three starts at this distance though he is unproven on soft ground. The trainer has a 9% strike rate from 196 runs at Yarmouth with an A/E of 0.75 while the trainer and jockey record stands at 2/6 with a 33% strike rate. Usually held up and producing his effort late, his recent form reads 10-057. This is his first run at the course from draw 11.
Sporty Socks KTB Fit 52/100
Sporty Socks has shown only limited ability with an RPR of 52 and has failed to win or place in eight career starts including two runs here at Yarmouth where he finished seventh both times. The yard has a solid 12% strike rate at the track from 123 runs with an A/E of 1.08 and the trainer and jockey record is 10/75 with a 13% strike rate and A/E of 1.15. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he is unproven on soft ground having never raced on it and has been unsuccessful in three attempts at this trip. From draw 1 his recent form reads 2653-7.
Sweetstevie KTB Fit 52/100
Sweetstevie has shown very little in three starts at Southwell on AW this year, finishing well beaten each time with an RPR of just 42. The switch to turf, first-time headgear and step up to 1m2f all pose fresh questions for a horse whose limited ability is clear from the figures. The trainer has a 15% strike rate from 59 runs at Yarmouth with an A/E of 1 while the jockey has a 20% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 1.74 from 25 rides. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he is dropping in class with recent form of 009 from draw 2 and remains unproven on soft ground.
The rest of the field
TrackmanKTB Fit 43/100
Trackman is a limited performer who has been largely out of his depth for some time and rarely threatens to win. He has been placed a couple of times at this track and has form at today's trip, but his two efforts on soft ground have produced no joy and the yard's record here is poor with a 2% strike rate and A/E of 0.24 from 56 runs. Usually held up, his recent form reads 5776-5 and he is dropping in class from draw 8.
Rockafeller SkankKTB Fit 43/100
Rockafeller Skank is a limited horse who showed very little in three runs last autumn but was a different proposition when winning a soft-ground classified event over 1m here yesterday. That success came after being gelded and he shaped as though the step up to this trip would suit. The trainer has a solid 17% strike rate at Yarmouth from 111 runs with an A/E of 1.19, he has a win from two runs on soft and won here on his sole previous visit from draw 4. Usually held up, his recent form reads 700-1.
WingstarKTB Fit 43/100
Wingstar has shown very little in eight starts this year with a recent form line of 446409 and ratings that mark him out as limited. The trainer has a 0% strike-rate from 18 runs at Yarmouth with an A/E of 0 while he is unproven on soft ground and has failed to make an impact in his only try at this trip. Usually held up, he has figures of RPR 51 and TS 22 from draw 3.
Sunset In ParisKTB Fit 41/100
Sunset In Paris is a limited performer who has been out of form for some time and rarely threatens to win. He has run respectably a couple of times at this track without ever looking like winning and drops back from 2m today having won at this trip earlier in his career. The trainer has a modest 5% strike rate at Yarmouth with an A/E of 0.58 from 656 runs, he has one run on soft with no win or place and his course form shows no wins from five runs. Typically settles in midfield from draw 6 with recent form of 03-994 and he is dropping in class.
Sapphire DreamKTB Fit 41/100
Sapphire Dream has shown limited ability so far with an RPR of 51 and Topspeed of 42 from ten runs. The 3-year-old steps up in trip for the first time today having last run over 7f and has no experience of soft ground. This first run at Yarmouth is neutral while the trainer also has no previous runners here. Usually races handily on or close to the lead from draw 5 with recent form of 784-58.
Churchill's SpiritKTB Fit 39/100
Churchill's Spirit is a limited horse who showed little in three starts over 7f last year and arrives here off a six-month break. First-time headgear is tried as he steps up markedly in trip to 1m2f, a distance more in line with his pedigree though it remains an unknown. The trainer has a 13% strike rate at Yarmouth from 157 runs with an A/E of 0.8 and the trainer and jockey record is 14/167 with an 8% strike rate and A/E of 0.68. Typically settles in midfield from draw 7 with recent form of 996- and he is dropping in class while unproven on soft ground.
KTB verdict
Zafaan is the KTB Selection. He brings the strongest combination of course winning form, a previous success over the trip and a drop back in distance that looks ideal, while the yard's excellent record at Yarmouth adds further appeal despite his modest overall level. The selection can capitalise on a muddling pace by coming from off it in the later stages. Main dangers are Wrist Art, who has placed over the trip and handles the ground, and Rockafeller Skank, who showed a new level with his soft-ground win over a mile here only yesterday and may improve again up in distance.
KTB Selection Zafaan
This is the narrative read of the 5:03 Yarmouth. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Yarmouth racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has course winning form over a mile at Yarmouth on soft ground?
Rockafeller Skank won a soft-ground classified event over 1m here yesterday.
How many wins has the trainer of Zafaan recorded at Yarmouth?
The trainer of Zafaan has a 33% strike rate at Yarmouth from a small sample of six runs.
Which runners are unproven on soft ground?
Dors Delight, Sporty Socks, Sweetstevie, Wingstar, Sapphire Dream and Churchill's Spirit are all unproven on soft ground.
What is the run-style of the KTB Selection Zafaan?
Zafaan is usually held up and produces his effort late with high confidence.
Which horse is stepping up markedly in trip from 7f with first-time headgear?
Churchill's Spirit steps up markedly in trip to 1m2f with first-time headgear.
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