3:30 Newbury
A competitive Class 3 handicap over 7f at Newbury on good to soft ground features a field of 16, with several useful performers on their best days. The KTB Fit scores range from 66 down to 45, highlighting a clutch of principals separated by small margins while underlining the depth across the card. With strong pace anticipated, the race is set up to test stamina and positioning late on.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is strong with high confidence, driven by two or more habitual front-runners including I'm Workin On It and City Of Kings. Prominent runners such as Best Rate, Spangled Mac, Morte Point, Nostrum, I Still Have Faith and Obsidian Dream are likely to be involved up front, setting a searching gallop that could cause it to collapse in the final furlong. This strongly favours hold-up horses, posing the key question of whether any prominent racer can withstand the late surge from those coming from off the pace.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Forty Years On KTB Selection66/100Smart performer who has won three of her five starts including a handicap at Ascot over this trip on soft ground.
- 2Best Rate62/100Useful performer who arrives in decent nick judged on recent efforts and a solid RPR of 102.
- 3Ata Rangi61/100Useful performer who arrives in form after a clear-cut win last time and holds a solid RPR of 103.
- 4Consecrated61/100Consecrated is a useful performer with an RPR of 102 who won over this course and distance on debut.
- 5Tanmawwy60/100Tanmawwy is a useful performer on his day with a career-high RPR of 102 and has placed here at Newbury before.
- 6Chalk Mountain58/100Useful performer who arrives in decent nick after winning last time out and has placed twice from two runs at Newbury.
- 7Spangled Mac56/100Useful performer who won over this trip and on this ground at Newbury last season.
- 8Morte Point56/100Useful performer who won on his only previous visit to Newbury and has scored three times over this trip.
- 9Brian56/100Brian has smart level ability on his best days yet arrives in modest recent form and steps up in trip for the first time.
- 10Storm Free56/100Useful performer who has run to a solid level on his best days and has already won over today's trip.
- 11Nostrum55/100Nostrum is a useful performer on his best days with a recent second that suggests he is close to form again.
- 12Warm Spell54/100Warm Spell is a useful performer on his day with a solid RPR of 103 and has won over this trip as well as at Newbury itself.
- 13I'm Workin On It52/100I'm Workin On It is a useful performer on his best days with an RPR of 102 and a solid recent record that includes four wins from 13 runs.
- 14I Still Have Faith51/100Useful performer on his day but has been a shade below form this season and is drawn widest in a big field here.
- 15Obsidian Dream48/100Obsidian Dream is a useful performer on his best days with an RPR of 100 but has been below that level in two starts this year.
- 16City Of Kings45/100City Of Kings has won once from three runs at this trip and showed fair form for his previous yard before a long absence.
The contenders
Forty Years On KTB Fit 66/100
Forty Years On is a smart performer who has won three of her five starts including a handicap at Ascot over this trip on soft ground. She has finished in the first three every time and was only just touched off at Southwell on her final outing with the winner going on to land a decent handicap at York. The trainer operates at a 10% strike rate at Newbury from 51 runs while the jockey is at 10% from 194 rides. She is unproven on good to soft ground and has no course form on record. Usually held up and producing her effort late, the wide draw in stall 13 adds a layer of difficulty.
Best Rate KTB Fit 62/100
Best Rate is a useful performer who arrives in decent nick judged on recent efforts and a solid RPR of 102. He has won over today's trip but is 0-2 on good to soft ground and makes his first start at Newbury from a wide draw in stall 15. The trainer has an 11% strike rate at Newbury from 1190 runs while the jockey is at 9% from 621 rides. Stepping up in class, he usually races handily on or close to the lead.
Ata Rangi KTB Fit 61/100
Ata Rangi is a useful performer who arrives in form after a clear-cut win last time and holds a solid RPR of 103. He has won three of his four starts at this trip but showed little on his only run on good to soft ground. The trainer has a 13% strike rate at Newbury from 338 runs while the jockey is at 9% from 282 rides. Stepping up in class, he typically settles in midfield.
Consecrated KTB Fit 61/100
Consecrated is a useful performer with an RPR of 102 who won over this course and distance on debut. She drops back from 1m2f Listed races where she failed to progress and was well beaten last time, though her half-sister Sacred was a top performer at 6f and 7f. The trainer has a 20% strike rate at Newbury from 696 runs while the jockey is at 15% from 492 rides. Usually held up and producing her effort late, she has two runs on good to soft with no win or place.
Tanmawwy KTB Fit 60/100
Tanmawwy is a useful performer on his day with a career-high RPR of 102 and has placed here at Newbury before. He drops back to 7f having won at the trip earlier in his career though his recent form is patchy and he has never placed from four runs on good to soft ground. The trainer holds an 8% strike rate at the track from 152 runs while the jockey is operating at 11% from 81 rides. Typically settling in midfield, he steps up in class.
The rest of the field
Chalk MountainKTB Fit 58/100
Chalk Mountain is a useful performer who arrives in decent nick after winning last time out and has placed twice from two runs at Newbury. He has won at this trip but his record on good to soft is modest with no win or place from two starts. The jockey has a 7% strike rate from 88 rides here while the trainer has no previous runners at the track. Typically settling in midfield, he steps up in class.
Spangled MacKTB Fit 56/100
Spangled Mac is a useful performer who won over this trip and on this ground at Newbury last season. Recent form has been patchy but the figures still stack up and the draw looks kind from stall 2. Both trainer and jockey have solid records at the track. Usually races handily on or close to the lead, he has two wins from four on good to soft.
Morte PointKTB Fit 56/100
Morte Point is a useful performer who won on his only previous visit to Newbury and has scored three times over this trip. Recent form is poor though and the yard's modest 5% strike-rate here offers little encouragement. The jockey has a solid record at the track but that may not be enough to turn things around. Usually races handily on or close to the lead, he has placed once from one run on good to soft.
BrianKTB Fit 56/100
Brian has smart level ability on his best days yet arrives in modest recent form and steps up in trip for the first time. He has won over this course and acts on good to soft but the trainer's poor Newbury strike rate is a clear negative. The jockey's record at the track is more respectable though still below average. Typically settling in midfield, he drops in class.
Storm FreeKTB Fit 56/100
Storm Free is a useful performer who has run to a solid level on his best days and has already won over today's trip. First run at Newbury and no experience on good to soft ground both add an element of unknown while the trainer's modest 7% strike rate here is another negative. First-time headgear is now applied. Usually held up and producing effort late, he drops in class.
NostrumKTB Fit 55/100
Nostrum is a useful performer on his best days with a recent second that suggests he is close to form again. He drops back to 7f having won at the trip in the past though his two runs on good to soft ground have produced no win or place. The trainer's modest 6% strike rate at Newbury is offset by the jockey's strong 21% record at the track. Usually races handily on or close to the lead.
Warm SpellKTB Fit 54/100
Warm Spell is a useful performer on his day with a solid RPR of 103 and has won over this trip as well as at Newbury itself. He has been below form in both starts this year and now tries good to soft ground for the first time which remains an unknown. The trainer's modest 2% strike rate from 43 runs at the track is a negative though the jockey has a more respectable 8% record here. Usually held up and producing effort late, he steps up in class.
I'm Workin On ItKTB Fit 52/100
I'm Workin On It is a useful performer on his best days with an RPR of 102 and a solid recent record that includes four wins from 13 runs. He has already won four times at this trip and arrives in decent form but was well held when he ran here once before. The trainer and jockey both have modest 7% strike rates at Newbury while he remains unproven on good to soft ground. Tends to make the running or race on the pace, he steps up in class.
I Still Have FaithKTB Fit 51/100
I Still Have Faith is a useful performer on his day but has been a shade below form this season and is drawn widest in a big field here. He has run respectably without winning at Newbury and handles good to soft, though his trainer's modest 5% strike rate at the track is a negative. Trip looks about right and the jockey's solid course record offers some hope. Usually races handily on or close to the lead.
Obsidian DreamKTB Fit 48/100
Obsidian Dream is a useful performer on his best days with an RPR of 100 but has been below that level in two starts this year. He steps up from 5.5f to 7f for the first time in a while having only placed once at the trip from six attempts. The trainer's modest 2% strike rate from 354 runs at Newbury is a clear negative even allowing for the 6% record of the claiming jockey. Usually races handily on or close to the lead.
City Of KingsKTB Fit 45/100
City Of Kings has won once from three runs at this trip and showed fair form for his previous yard before a long absence. He was sold for 140,000 UAE Dirham earlier this year after being gelded and now makes his debut for Ian Williams who has an 8 percent strike rate from 372 runs at Newbury. The limited overall data and hefty layoff mean his current ability remains something of a question. Tends to make the running or race on the pace.
KTB verdict
Forty Years On stands out as the KTB Selection. Her smart level of ability, record of three wins from five starts and consistent placing in every run give her a clear edge, particularly with the strong pace shape set to play to her strengths as a hold-up performer. The wide draw and lack of experience on good to soft are the only concerns in an otherwise strong profile. Main dangers include Ata Rangi, who arrives in form off a clear-cut win, Consecrated with her course-and-distance success on debut, and Best Rate who brings solid recent efforts to the table.
KTB Selection Forty Years On
This is the narrative read of the 3:30 Newbury. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Newbury racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is proven at course and distance?
Consecrated won over this course and distance on debut.
How does the strong pace shape influence the race?
The strong pace with two or more habitual front-runners could collapse late, favouring hold-up horses such as Forty Years On and Consecrated.
Which runners are stepping up in class?
Best Rate, Ata Rangi, Tanmawwy, Chalk Mountain, Warm Spell, I'm Workin On It and Obsidian Dream are all stepping up in class.
Who are the prominent runners likely to set the pace?
I'm Workin On It and City Of Kings tend to make the running or race on the pace, with Best Rate, Spangled Mac, Morte Point, Nostrum, I Still Have Faith and Obsidian Dream usually racing handily.
Which horses have course wins at Newbury?
Consecrated, Spangled Mac, Morte Point, Brian and Warm Spell have all won here.
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