2:35 Nottingham
This Class 5 EBF Restricted Novice Stakes over 5f8y at Nottingham brings together ten two-year-olds, most with limited experience and several making their first start on good ground. The KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched at the top, headed by Moriarty Moon on 54, just ahead of Dreamlover on 53 and Priscilla's Hope on 52, suggesting an open-looking heat where improvement and suitability to the trip will be key. With no standout figures and several runners unproven on the surface, the race looks tactical and modest on paper.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is described as muddling and tactical with medium confidence, as there is no obvious front-runner in the field. Those who race prominently or in midfield, such as Dreamlover, Wolf's Gallop and Moriarty Moon, should be well placed to take advantage. The key question is which horse can settle into a rhythm close to the pace and then find the necessary improvement over this sprint trip, especially with several hold-up types in the line-up who may find themselves further back in a race lacking strong early speed.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Moriarty Moon KTB Selection54/100Moriarty Moon shaped with some promise when seventh of 11 in a Chester novice over 6f on debut and has the pedigree to improve as a Starspangledbanner colt.
- 2Dreamlover53/100Dreamlover showed inexperience when finishing fourth of six on debut at Southwell last month and has since been gelded.
- 3Priscilla's Hope52/100Modest performer who has shown ordinary form in three starts and needs to improve on her fifth of nine at Redcar over 6f last time.
- 4Agnes Hathaway51/100Modest performer who has shown little in two starts so far with form figures of 87.
- 5Wolf's Gallop50/100This lightly raced colt showed some promise when finishing seventh of nine on debut at Doncaster over 5f.
- 6Nascent Star49/100Nascent Star is a debutant Starman colt whose half-brother Fiction won over 5.5f-7f on the continent.
- 7Barnaby Rudge48/100Barnaby Rudge is an Inns Of Court colt who cost 62,000gns as a 2yo and is a half-brother to a smart 5f winner.
- 8Blondie Larry42/100Blondie Larry is a Showcasing colt who cost 50,000 euros as a yearling.
- 9Shaniko38/100Shaniko showed very little on debut when last of 12 in a Chester seller over 6f.
- 10One In A Millz37/100This limited 2-year-old showed very little on debut when last of 12 at Windsor over 6f.
The contenders
Moriarty Moon KTB Fit 54/100
Moriarty Moon shaped with some promise when seventh of 11 in a Chester novice over 6f on debut and has the pedigree to improve as a Starspangledbanner colt. He drops back to 5f today having already tried the trip once without success, which asks a fresh question of him. The yard holds a 12% strike rate at Nottingham from 611 runs while the jockey is operating at 7% from 302 rides here. With RPR of 76 and TS of 73 he brings the strongest form figures to the race and is dropping in class. His mid-division run style should suit the anticipated muddling pace. Overall he is taken to build on his debut effort.
Dreamlover KTB Fit 53/100
Dreamlover showed inexperience when finishing fourth of six on debut at Southwell last month and has since been gelded. The son of Cotai Glory is clearly thought capable of better by connections. Trainer and jockey both hold solid records at Nottingham but this remains a modest prospect on the bare form with only one run in the book. His prominent run style could be an asset in a race lacking an obvious leader. With a KTB Fit of 53 he is rated just behind the selection and his market position reflects the hope that he can improve markedly from that initial effort.
Priscilla's Hope KTB Fit 52/100
Priscilla's Hope is a modest performer who has shown ordinary form in three starts and needs to improve on her fifth of nine at Redcar over 6f last time. Dropping back to an untried 5f poses a fresh question while the yard's modest 8% strike rate at Nottingham from 60 runs offers little encouragement. Jockey Cieren Fallon brings a solid 17% strike rate here from 139 rides. Her held-up run style means she will be looking to come from off the pace in what is expected to be a tactical affair. With RPR of 71 she has a bit more form in the book than some but still has plenty to prove at this trip.
Agnes Hathaway KTB Fit 51/100
Agnes Hathaway is a modest performer who has shown little in two starts so far with form figures of 87. She was seventh of nine at Bath over 5.5f last time and has already tried this trip without success. Trainer and jockey both have solid rather than sparkling records at Nottingham while the pedigree suggests she may improve with racing. Her held-up run style is likely to see her produced late in a muddling race. Rated with a KTB Fit of 51 she is capable of better but needs to show more than she has to date to figure prominently.
Wolf's Gallop KTB Fit 50/100
Wolf's Gallop is a lightly raced colt who showed some promise when finishing seventh of nine on debut at Doncaster over 5f. The form marks him as modest on both RPR and Topspeed with only one run to go on. Trainer Tom Lacey has no recorded runners at Nottingham while jockey William Cox has a 6% strike rate from 48 rides here. His prominent run style could be advantageous given the lack of an obvious front-runner. Dropping in class he is another who should be suited by the tactical nature of the race but has work to do on the figures shown so far.
The rest of the field
Nascent StarKTB Fit 49/100
Nascent Star is a debutant Starman colt whose half-brother Fiction won over 5.5f-7f on the continent. The dam is an unraced sister to Group 3 and Listed winners so there is enough in the pedigree to make him of interest. Hugo Palmer's juveniles are in good form while the yard's 11% strike rate from 122 runs at Nottingham is fair and the 5lb claiming jockey has struck at 13% from only eight rides here.
Barnaby RudgeKTB Fit 48/100
Barnaby Rudge is an Inns Of Court colt who cost 62,000gns as a 2yo and is a half-brother to a smart 5f winner. His dam won over 5f at two and comes from a useful middle-distance family. Connections are in decent form at Nottingham and he is hooded for debut.
Blondie LarryKTB Fit 42/100
Blondie Larry is a Showcasing colt who cost 50,000 euros as a yearling. His dam was a smart Group-placed 6f winner and comes from a family that includes a 1m4f Group 3 winner. Connections are modest at Nottingham with the trainer on 7% from 169 runs and the jockey yet to score from 16 rides.
ShanikoKTB Fit 38/100
Shaniko showed very little on debut when last of 12 in a Chester seller over 6f. The limited ability suggested by that run and her RPR of 15 leaves her with plenty to find in this company. Trainer and jockey both have solid strike rates at Nottingham though the small sample on this lightly-raced filly means the trip drop remains an unknown.
One In A MillzKTB Fit 37/100
One In A Millz showed very little on debut when last of 12 at Windsor over 6f. Dropping back to 5f poses a fresh question while the trainer's modest 3% strike rate at Nottingham offers little encouragement. The jockey's solid 20% record at the track is the main positive in an otherwise low-confidence profile.
KTB verdict
Moriarty Moon is the KTB Selection. He showed some promise on debut at Chester and brings the best RPR and TS figures in the field while dropping in class. His pedigree offers hope of improvement and the yard's record at Nottingham adds some confidence. The main dangers are Dreamlover, who is expected to improve from his initial effort having been gelded, and the debutant Nascent Star who has a pedigree that makes him of definite interest. Priscilla's Hope and Wolf's Gallop are others who could figure if the race falls their way tactically.
KTB Selection Moriarty Moon
This is the narrative read of the 2:35 Nottingham. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Nottingham racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the strongest recent form figures according to KTB?
Moriarty Moon, with RPR 76 and TS 73 from his seventh of 11 at Chester.
How is the race expected to be run?
Muddling and tactical with no obvious front-runner, suiting those ridden close to the pace.
Which runner is dropping in class and has the highest trainer strike rate at Nottingham among the principals?
Priscilla's Hope, with the yard showing a 21% strike rate from 5/24 (A/E 1.45).
What is the pedigree background for the top debutant Nascent Star?
Starman colt whose half-brother Fiction won over 5.5f-7f on the continent and whose dam is an unraced sister to Group 3 and Listed winners.
Which jockey has the best strike rate at Nottingham among those riding in this race?
Jack Doughty on One In A Millz with a 20% strike rate from 20 rides (A/E 1.71).
18+. Analysis and entertainment only — no guarantee of profit. KTB race previews are published for interest and are not betting advice. Only ever stake what you can comfortably afford to lose, and set your own limits. Free, confidential help: the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133 (GamCare.org.uk); in Ireland, the GamblingCare.ie helpline on 1800 936 725. Self-exclude at any time via GAMSTOP.
About the A/E figures in this preview. They are the data supplier’s: the winners a trainer or jockey had, divided by the winners the starting prices implied, over the runs in that record. Above 1.0 means more wins than the prices suggested. It is not KTB’s fair A/E, which allows for the bookmakers’ margin and the favourite–longshot bias, and the two are not comparable.
More from Kickthebookies