3:08 Nottingham
This Class 4 novice over 1m75y at Nottingham features a small but interesting field of four, with three 3yos and one juvenile. The KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched at the top, headed by Fractional on 61, just ahead of Decade Of Time on 60 and Odogwu on 53, with Prince Of Calypso close behind on 52. Figures suggest useful rather than exceptional ability on show, and the drop in class for the two principals adds another layer to what looks a steadily-run, tactical contest.
How the race shapes up
With no obvious leader in the field, the pace shape points to a steadily-run affair in which being handy should pay dividends. Decade Of Time is the one most likely to race prominently and could end up dictating matters or sitting just off a slow gallop. The two hold-up performers, Fractional and Odogwu, will be looking to come from off the pace, while the juvenile Prince Of Calypso is another who tends to be held up. The key question is whether the prominent runner can steal a march or if the closers will be able to summon the necessary kick in a tactical race.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Fractional KTB Selection61/100Useful performer who showed promise as a 2yo when third in a 1m Yarmouth maiden and remains with untapped potential as a daughter of Frankel.
- 2Decade Of Time60/100Decade Of Time has shown useful ability with a third on debut at Newbury and a cosy win in a Windsor novice last month.
- 3Odogwu53/100Odogwu shaped with promise when fifth of 15 in a Newbury novice over 7f on debut last month.
- 4Prince Of Calypso52/100Prince Of Calypso showed fair form when third on debut over 7f at Haydock in September.
The contenders
Fractional KTB Fit 61/100
Fractional is a useful performer who showed promise as a 2yo when third in a 1m Yarmouth maiden and remains with untapped potential as a daughter of Frankel. She is dropping back from Listed company at 1m2f to this more suitable trip which looks a positive, although she was only fifth on reappearance and now tries headgear for the first time. William Haggas has a 19% strike rate at Nottingham from 378 runs while Cieren Fallon posts a 17% strike rate from 139 rides at the track. The trainer and jockey combination shows a solid 23% strike rate with an A/E of 0.98. An RPR of 101 underlines her ability and she holds the highest KTB Fit rating of 61.
Decade Of Time KTB Fit 60/100
Decade Of Time has shown useful ability with a third on debut at Newbury and a cosy win in a Windsor novice last month. He has already won at today's trip and the RPR of 90 suggests he can make his mark in this higher grade despite dropping in class. Jack Channon has a solid 19% strike rate at Nottingham from 26 runs although George Bass is only 5% from 22 rides here. The trainer and jockey partnership records a 14% strike rate with an A/E of 1.00. He is the one most likely to race prominently and his placed effort on good ground adds to his solidity in what is expected to be a steadily-run race.
Odogwu KTB Fit 53/100
Odogwu shaped with promise when fifth of 15 in a Newbury novice over 7f on debut last month. The Earthlight colt is stepping up to an untested 1m today and carries a fair RPR of 89 from that single run. Trainer Roger Varian has a 19% strike rate from 263 runs at Nottingham while jockey Ray Dawson posts 15% from 106 rides here. The trainer and jockey combination shows an 18% strike rate with an A/E of 0.80. Usually held up, he will be looking to produce his effort late in what is likely to be a tactical affair.
The rest of the field
Prince Of CalypsoKTB Fit 52/100
Prince Of Calypso showed fair form when third on debut over 7f at Haydock in September. He steps up to 1m today with first-time cheekpieces, has been gelded since that run and is stepping up in class.
KTB verdict
Fractional is the KTB Selection and looks to have the best blend of ability and untapped potential in a race where the trip looks ideal after her Listed run at 1m2f. Her RPR of 101 is the highest on offer and the first-time headgear may help her to produce a sharper effort as she drops in class. Decade Of Time is the obvious danger having already won at the trip and shown useful form, while Odogwu's promising debut also demands respect in a field where the prominent runner could have his share of the fractions.
KTB Selection Fractional
This is the narrative read of the 3:08 Nottingham. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Nottingham racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is dropping in class from Listed company?
Fractional is dropping in class from Listed company at 1m2f.
Who is the most prominent runner in the race?
Decade Of Time usually races handily, on or close to the lead.
Which horse is wearing headgear for the first time?
Fractional tries headgear for the first time and Prince Of Calypso also runs in first-time cheekpieces.
What is the highest RPR in the field?
Fractional has the highest RPR of 101.
Which trainer has the best strike rate at Nottingham among those represented?
Edward Bethell has a 27% strike rate at Nottingham from 44 runs.
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