4:17 Nottingham
This Class 6 handicap over 1m6f at Nottingham on good ground brings together a field of eight three-year-olds, most of whom are modest performers still with questions to answer at this trip. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched at the top, with Caraway just ahead on 60, followed closely by Gemical on 58. Several runners are dropping in class or trying the distance for the first time, while the pace shape points to an uncontested lead that could prove difficult for those coming from off the pace.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is a lone leader with high confidence, indicating one clear front-runner with little to pressure it early on. Sir Griflet is the obvious candidate to take that role from his front-running style, potentially enjoying an easy time up front. The majority of the field, including the top two in the KTB Fit Scores, are held-up types who will be produced late. The key question is whether the uncontested lead will be hard for the closers to peg back on this stamina test.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Caraway KTB Selection60/100Modest performer who got off the mark at the sixth attempt in a Thirsk handicap last month over 1m4f on good ground.
- 2Gemical58/100Modest performer who has shown some consistency in 1m4f handicaps and was not disgraced when fifth at Catterick last time in a visor.
- 3Riddikulus51/100Modest performer who has shown ordinary form in six starts at up to 1m2f.
- 4Femme Fatale50/100Modest performer who showed some promise as a 2yo but was well beaten on her handicap debut over 1m2f here nine weeks ago.
- 5Sir Griflet50/100Sir Griflet has shown consistent but modest form in five runs this year and posted his best effort when a close fourth at Wolverhampton over 1m4f nine days ago.
- 6Song Of The Stars48/100Modest performer who finally got off the mark at the seventh attempt when winning on turf at Lingfield 12 days ago over an extended 1m3f.
- 7Wedonttellthetruth41/100Modest performer who showed his best form when winning a Wolverhampton handicap in March in first-time cheekpieces.
- 8Fairydale36/100Modest performer who has failed to build on her handicap debut sixth when only third of three at Redcar over this trip 16 days ago.
The contenders
Caraway KTB Fit 60/100
Caraway is a modest performer who got off the mark at the sixth attempt in a Thirsk handicap last month over 1m4f on good ground. She travels well but takes time to find her stride, and the step up to 1m6f is an unknown that could suit her pedigree. William Haggas has a 19% strike rate at Nottingham from 378 runs while Cieren Fallon is operating at 17% from 139 rides here. The trainer and jockey combination shows a record of 200/866 (23%) with an A/E of 0.98 and +£50.36 LSP. She is dropping in class, has recorded figures of RPR 74 and TS 58, and acts on good ground with one win from two starts. Her recent form reads 7-6461 and she is usually held up, producing her effort late.
Gemical KTB Fit 58/100
Gemical is a modest performer who has shown some consistency in 1m4f handicaps and was not disgraced when fifth at Catterick last time in a visor. Stepping up to 1m6f today asks a fresh question while a 3lb drop in the weights offers some hope. Rebecca Menzies has an 18% strike rate from 33 runs at Nottingham and Harry Burns a 15% strike rate from 33 rides here. The trainer and jockey record stands at 2/14 (14%) with an A/E of 1.48 and +£57.33 LSP. Her figures read RPR 72 and TS 56, with recent form of 05-543. She is usually held up and produces her effort late, though she has two runs on good ground without a win or place.
Riddikulus KTB Fit 51/100
Riddikulus is a modest performer who has shown ordinary form in six starts at up to 1m2f. She steps up markedly in trip today which is a fresh question on breeding though the small sample makes it impossible to know how she will handle the extra distance or the good ground. Grant Tuer and Andrew Mullen both have solid strike rates here though the horse's own ratings leave her with plenty to find. The trainer and jockey record is 1/19 (5%) with an A/E of 0.82 and -£4.00 LSP. She has figures of RPR 69 and TS 50, with recent form of 76-644, and typically settles in midfield.
Femme Fatale KTB Fit 50/100
Femme Fatale is a modest performer who showed some promise as a 2yo but was well beaten on her handicap debut over 1m2f here nine weeks ago. She steps up markedly in trip today to 1m6f which asks a fresh question while first-time headgear is also applied. James Tate and Rob Hornby both have solid strike rates at Nottingham though her own course effort was poor. The trainer and jockey combination shows 4/23 (17%) with an A/E of 0.98 and -£10.01 LSP. Her figures are RPR 70 and TS 71, recent form reads 649-8, and she is dropping in class. Usually races handily, on or close to the lead.
The rest of the field
Sir GrifletKTB Fit 50/100
Sir Griflet has shown consistent but modest form in five runs this year and posted his best effort when a close fourth at Wolverhampton over 1m4f nine days ago. He now steps up in trip to 1m6f for the first time which asks a fresh question while first-time cheekpieces are also applied. The Cunha yard holds a solid 22% strike rate here from 37 runs and Ray Dawson adds a 15% record from 106 rides at Nottingham. His figures read RPR 68 and TS 62 with recent form of 55564.
Song Of The StarsKTB Fit 48/100
Song Of The Stars is a modest performer who finally got off the mark at the seventh attempt when winning on turf at Lingfield 12 days ago over an extended 1m3f. She steps up to 1m6f today which is an untried trip and therefore a fresh question. James Ferguson records a 7% strike rate from 27 runs at Nottingham while the jockey has had too few rides here to judge. Figures are RPR 70 and TS 63 with recent form of 004531.
WedonttellthetruthKTB Fit 41/100
Wedonttellthetruth is a modest performer who showed his best form when winning a Wolverhampton handicap in March in first-time cheekpieces. He has failed to build on that in two runs since and now steps up in trip again for his turf debut. Mark Loughnane and Daniel Muscutt both have modest strike rates here. Recent form reads 6-5169 with figures of RPR 68.
FairydaleKTB Fit 36/100
Fairydale is a modest performer who has failed to build on her handicap debut sixth when only third of three at Redcar over this trip 16 days ago. Headgear is now removed and she remains lightly raced with little to shout about on ratings. Tim Easterby has a 9% strike-rate at Nottingham from 605 runs while the jockey is operating at 5% from 189 rides here. Figures read RPR 66 and TS 53 with recent form of 755-63.
KTB verdict
Caraway is the KTB Selection and sets a clear standard as a recent winner who is dropping in class. Her ability to travel well and the potential for the longer trip to bring about further improvement, allied to the strong trainer and jockey figures at Nottingham, make her the one to beat. The uncontested lead should make the race a test for held-up performers like her, though the likes of Gemical, who has been consistent and drops 3lb, and the prominent Femme Fatale with first-time headgear are the main dangers. Riddikulus and the remainder have more to find on their current ratings and unproven stamina.
KTB Selection Caraway
This is the narrative read of the 4:17 Nottingham. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Nottingham racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is likely to take the uncontested lead?
Sir Griflet, who tends to make the running or race on the pace with high confidence in his run-style.
How many of the field are held-up types?
Five runners are described as usually held up and producing their effort late: Caraway, Gemical, Song Of The Stars, Wedonttellthetruth and Fairydale.
Which horses are dropping in class?
Caraway, Femme Fatale and Fairydale are all dropping in class.
Who has the strongest trainer strike rate at Nottingham in the field?
Dylan Cunha with a 22% strike rate from 37 runs.
Which horse is wearing first-time headgear?
Femme Fatale in first-time headgear and Sir Griflet in first-time cheekpieces.
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