5:22 Nottingham
This Class 6 classified stakes over 6f18y at Nottingham brings together a field of largely modest performers on good ground. With no standout star in the 13-runner line-up, the KTB Fit Scores cluster tightly between 57 and 31, underlining the limited nature of the contest. The race looks open on paper, though the muddling pace shape and wide draws for some principals add layers of tactical interest.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is described as muddling and tactical with medium confidence, as there is no obvious front-runner. Several principals, notably South Shore Island and Timebar, tend to race prominently and should be able to secure good early positions from their respective stalls. Those held up or racing in mid-division will need the race to fall right, making the key question whether the prominent runners can dictate matters or if the closers will find the gaps in a race likely to be run at a steady tempo.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1South Shore Island KTB Selection57/100Modest performer who has shown enough on good ground to stay competitive at this level.
- 2Timebar55/100Timebar is a limited performer who has been placed without winning in four of his last six starts.
- 3Spirited Dancer54/100Spirited Dancer is a limited performer with an RPR of 57 and Topspeed of 43 that has been largely out of form this year.
- 4Green Valentine53/100Green Valentine has struggled this year with a string of modest efforts and sits right at the bottom of the limited rung for this grade.
- 5Rambuso Creek52/100Modest performer who has been consistent enough of late without threatening to win.
- 6Baileys Ontherocks42/100Limited performer who has shown very little in ten starts and arrives here with a recent string of modest efforts.
- 7She's A Goldigger41/100She's A Goldigger has struggled for consistency and shown only limited ability with an RPR of 50.
- 8My Boy Jack38/100My Boy Jack is a limited performer on the balance of his form and ratings.
- 9Charcon38/100Charcon has shown only limited ability in six runs with a career-high RPR of 52 and no placed efforts.
- 10Yesnia38/100Yesnia has shown little in five runs with a recent seventh at this track and another poor effort at Wolverhampton ten days ago.
- 11Posh Maisie37/100Posh Maisie is a limited performer who has shown little spark in recent starts and sits on a career-low RPR of 49.
- 12Twilight Serenade35/100Twilight Serenade has shown only limited ability with an RPR of 51 and Topspeed of 40 from eight career runs.
- 13Piddie's Pearl31/100Piddie's Pearl has shown very little in six starts with an RPR of just 47 and Topspeed of 17 leaving her looking limited.
The contenders
South Shore Island KTB Fit 57/100
South Shore Island is a modest performer who has shown enough on good ground to stay competitive at this level. The 4-year-old has been placed three times at today's trip without winning and has been in the frame on two of six runs on similar going. Stepping up from 5.5f with a wide draw to contend with on first run at Nottingham, he is ridden by Cieren Fallon who holds a 17% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 1.06 from 139 rides. Trainer Lizzie Quinlan has no Nottingham record from 77 runs overall at a 13% strike rate. Usually racing handily on or close to the lead, South Shore Island looks sure to be involved from the front end in a race that should suit those close to the pace.
Timebar KTB Fit 55/100
Timebar is a limited performer who has been placed without winning in four of his last six starts. The 5-year-old has run well here before when second over course and distance and steps back up to 6f today having last been seen over the minimum trip. Trainer Roy Bowring has a 9% strike rate at Nottingham with an A/E of 1.03 from 468 runs, while jockey Jack Gilligan is 20% from a small sample of 10 rides with an A/E of 0.98. Timebar has been placed once from three runs on good ground and has course form reading 8th and 2nd. Usually racing handily on or close to the lead with high confidence, he should be well positioned in a muddling tactical affair.
Spirited Dancer KTB Fit 54/100
Spirited Dancer is a limited performer with an RPR of 57 and Topspeed of 43 that has been largely out of form this year. The 4-year-old steps up from 5.5f to a trip he has tried eight times without success and makes his first start at Nottingham. Trainer Daniel & Claire Kubler hold a solid 17% strike rate here with an A/E of 1.14 from 30 runs, while Ray Dawson is also operating above expectations at the track with a 15% strike rate and A/E of 1.05 from 106 rides. The gelding has a win and two places from three runs on good ground. Typically settling in midfield with high confidence, Spirited Dancer will be looking to pick up the pieces if the race falls apart late.
Green Valentine KTB Fit 53/100
Green Valentine has struggled this year with a string of modest efforts and sits right at the bottom of the limited rung for this grade. The 5-year-old drops back to 6f which is a plus as she has won at the trip in the past though she showed little on good ground last time from four runs with no win or place. Jockey Jack Doughty has a solid 20% strike rate at Nottingham with an A/E of 1.71 from 20 rides, but trainer Damien Wingrove has a 0% strike rate from his one runner so far. Usually held up and producing her effort late with high confidence, she will need the race to develop in her favour from stall 2.
Rambuso Creek KTB Fit 52/100
Rambuso Creek is a modest performer who has been consistent enough of late without threatening to win. The 7-year-old drops back to 6f having been placed at the trip in the past though he is 0-20 over it and the yard's modest 8% strike rate at Nottingham from 25 runs with an A/E of 0.98 offers little encouragement. Conor Whiteley takes the ride with a 7 lb claim but is 0% from one ride at the track. Rambuso Creek has a win and five places from 11 runs on good ground. Usually held up and producing his effort late with medium confidence on first run here, he will be aiming to close from off the pace.
The rest of the field
Baileys OntherocksKTB Fit 42/100
Baileys Ontherocks is a limited performer who has shown very little in ten starts and arrives here with a recent string of modest efforts. Stepping up to 6f for the first time in a while having failed to trouble the judge at that trip before, first-time headgear is now reached for while the trainer's modest 6% strike-rate at Nottingham from 301 runs offers no encouragement.
She's A GoldiggerKTB Fit 41/100
She's A Goldigger has struggled for consistency and shown only limited ability with an RPR of 50. Well held on her only previous run here and failing to win or place in five runs on good ground while dropping back to 6f today having been beaten at 7f last time, first-time headgear is a new factor but the yard's modest 9% strike rate at Nottingham from 56 runs offers little encouragement.
My Boy JackKTB Fit 38/100
My Boy Jack is a limited performer on the balance of his form and ratings. He has won over today's trip but has been out of form for some time and was well held on his last three starts. The yard's record here is too small a sample to judge while this is his first run at Nottingham.
CharconKTB Fit 38/100
Charcon has shown only limited ability in six runs with a career-high RPR of 52 and no placed efforts. Failing to make the frame in three starts at this trip and with first-time cheekpieces now called upon after another modest effort at Carlisle on Monday, the trainer has a 0% strike rate from 17 runs here while the jockey operates at a 7% strike rate from 302 rides at Nottingham.
YesniaKTB Fit 38/100
Yesnia has shown little in five runs with a recent seventh at this track and another poor effort at Wolverhampton ten days ago. The step back up to 6f poses a fresh question having failed to make an impact at the trip before while her limited ability is reflected in poor RPR and Topspeed figures. Trainer Declan Carroll has a 7% strike rate from 235 runs here and jockey Zak Wheatley is 3% from 39 rides.
Posh MaisieKTB Fit 37/100
Posh Maisie is a limited performer who has shown little spark in recent starts and sits on a career-low RPR of 49. The switch up to 6f poses a fresh question having failed to trouble the judge in seven previous attempts at the trip while her record on good ground is modest with no wins or places from five runs. The yard and jockey both have modest strike rates here at Nottingham and this looks another tough assignment from stall 4.
Twilight SerenadeKTB Fit 35/100
Twilight Serenade has shown only limited ability with an RPR of 51 and Topspeed of 40 from eight career runs. Dropping back to 6f today after a recent 7f run but having failed to win or place in two previous attempts at the trip and never finishing in the first three on good ground from three starts, the yard's small Nottingham sample prevents any strong read while Cam Hardie has an 8% strike rate from 131 rides at the track.
Piddie's PearlKTB Fit 31/100
Piddie's Pearl has shown very little in six starts with an RPR of just 47 and Topspeed of 17 leaving her looking limited. Dropping back to 6f today having failed to make an impact at the trip in three previous runs and beaten a long way on her recent return at Doncaster, the yard records a 5% strike rate from 103 runs at Nottingham while jockey William Pyle is 4% from 26 rides here. Unproven on good ground.
KTB verdict
South Shore Island stands out as the KTB Selection with a Fit Score of 57 and the strongest recent efforts among this modest bunch. His placed form at the trip, ability to race prominently and competitiveness on good ground make him well suited to a muddling tactical race where those close to the pace hold the edge. Timebar, with prior course placings, and Spirited Dancer, backed by the trainer and jockey's Nottingham figures, represent the main dangers, while the remainder look held on balance.
KTB Selection South Shore Island
This is the narrative read of the 5:22 Nottingham. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Nottingham racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is best suited to a muddling tactical pace?
South Shore Island and Timebar, both of whom usually race prominently and handily, should be well placed in a race without an obvious front-runner.
How does South Shore Island's draw and trip change affect his chances?
South Shore Island steps up from 5.5f with a wide draw to contend with on first run at Nottingham, though his placed efforts at the trip and on good ground keep him competitive.
What course form stands out in this field?
Timebar has run twice here with figures of 8th and 2nd over course and distance, while most others have either no course form or modest efforts such as Baileys Ontherocks' 6th and Yesnia's 7th.
Which trainers and jockeys hold strong Nottingham records?
The Kubler yard is 17% from 30 runs with an A/E of 1.14, Ray Dawson is 15% from 106 rides with an A/E of 1.05, and Jack Doughty is 20% from 20 rides with an A/E of 1.71.
How many runners are trying headgear for the first time?
Three runners are fitted with first-time headgear: Baileys Ontherocks, She's A Goldigger and Charcon.
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