7:30 Leopardstown
The 7:30 at Leopardstown is an apprentice handicap over 1m1f on soft ground with a field of eight runners. The KTB Fit Scores point to a competitive race at this level, headed by Morse on 65, though several others sit close behind on figures ranging from 62 down to 48. With a useful performer like Coeur d'Or holding an RPR of 102 and others showing placed form at the track, the race asks whether any can capitalise on the expected uncontested lead up front.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is a lone leader with high confidence, suggesting one horse will secure an uncontested lead that could prove difficult for closers to reel in. Vega's Muse is the only front-runner in the field and is likely to take up that role from draw five. Most of the principals, including Morse, Coeur d'Or and Abbey Actress, are held-up types who will be aiming to produce their efforts late, while Slieve Binnian settles in mid-division. The key question is whether the leader can get away and whether the soft ground will help the closers close the gap in the straight.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Morse KTB Selection65/100Morse is a useful performer on his best days with an RPR of 91 but has been out of form for some time and finished no better than seventh in his last four start…
- 2Coeur d'Or62/100Useful performer who won over this trip earlier in his career and has a solid Leopardstown record with one victory from three starts.
- 3Abbey Actress60/100Fair performer who ran well over course and distance when second on her only visit to Leopardstown.
- 4Slieve Binnian55/100Slieve Binnian is a useful performer who has won at this trip and at Leopardstown itself.
- 5Moyassr52/100Moyassr is a useful performer on his best days with a recent win and an RPR of 94 to his name.
- 6Vega's Muse50/100Vega's Muse is a fair performer on his best days with a recent Leopardstown win among five runs here.
- 7Clear Quartz49/100Fair performer who showed useful form when winning over this trip on soft ground last season.
- 8Musical Act48/100Musical Act is a fair performer on his best days with an RPR of 84 and has shown some placed form at this trip in the past.
The contenders
Morse KTB Fit 65/100
Morse is a useful performer on his best days with an RPR of 91 but has been out of form for some time and finished no better than seventh in his last four starts. He has won once from five runs at Leopardstown and has placed on soft ground though without winning on it. The step up to 1m1f is an unknown and the trainer's modest 7% strike rate at the track adds little confidence. Held up in rear with high confidence in that run-style, he will be looking to come from off the pace in a race where the leader may get an easy time out front. The jockey has a 10% strike rate at Leopardstown with an A/E of 1.42 from 29 rides, which offers some encouragement.
Coeur d'Or KTB Fit 62/100
Coeur d'Or is a useful performer who won over this trip earlier in his career and has a solid Leopardstown record with one victory from three starts. Recent form has been patchy though he ran to a fair standard when third last time and holds his form well on soft ground having been competitive without winning in two starts. The yard has a strong 17% strike rate here while the jockey is less proven with a 5% record from 21 rides. Usually held up and producing his effort late with high confidence, he will be among those trying to come from off the pace against a lone leader. At the age of ten he retains an RPR of 102 and remains capable on his day.
Abbey Actress KTB Fit 60/100
Abbey Actress is a fair performer who ran well over course and distance when second on her only visit to Leopardstown. She has a solid record on soft ground with a win and two places from three starts and drops back in trip today having last run over a mile and a half. Trainer's modest 9% strike rate at the track is offset by the jockey's strong 16% record from limited rides here. Usually held up with medium confidence in that run-style, she will be another looking to close late in a race where the pace may not be strong. Her recent form of /1-326 suggests she is competitive at this level when conditions suit.
Slieve Binnian KTB Fit 55/100
Slieve Binnian is a useful performer who has won at this trip and at Leopardstown itself. He has been out of form this year with three modest efforts from his last five starts yet retains a solid RPR of 97. The trainer's modest 4 percent strike rate here is offset by the jockey's above-average record at the track. Typically settling in midfield with high confidence, his run-style may see him positioned closer to the pace than the held-up principals. With form figures of 00-500 he needs to bounce back but has the ability to feature if he does.
The rest of the field
MoyassrKTB Fit 52/100
Moyassr is a useful performer on his best days with a recent win and an RPR of 94 to his name. He has run three times at Leopardstown without placing and is only 1-1 on soft ground so far. The drop back to 1m1f asks a fresh question while the trainer’s modest 6% strike-rate here is offset by the jockey’s solid 11% from a small sample.
Vega's MuseKTB Fit 50/100
Vega's Muse is a fair performer on his best days with a recent Leopardstown win among five runs here. He has handled soft ground without winning on it and steps up in trip today having failed to score in one previous try at this distance. The trainer's modest 9% strike rate at the track is offset by the jockey's solid 13% record from limited rides.
Clear QuartzKTB Fit 49/100
Clear Quartz is a fair performer who showed useful form when winning over this trip on soft ground last season. Dropping back from 1m4f should suit but he was well held on his only previous run here and the trainer's modest 5% strike rate at Leopardstown is another negative. Jockey has a good record at the track from a small sample.
Musical ActKTB Fit 48/100
Musical Act is a fair performer on his best days with an RPR of 84 and has shown some placed form at this trip in the past. He steps up from 7f today having been below form on his last three starts and his only run on soft ground brought no joy. The trainer holds a solid 10% strike rate here from 60 runs while the jockey is operating at a 3% strike rate from 29 rides.
KTB verdict
Morse is the KTB Selection in a race where the pace shape may favour the leader but several held-up performers have the ability to close if the fractions are kind. He brings an RPR of 91, a Leopardstown win and placed form on soft ground, though his recent form is a clear concern. Coeur d'Or looks the main danger with his higher RPR, course record and proven ability at the trip, while Abbey Actress and Slieve Binnian are capable on their best days and cannot be ruled out if they return to form.
KTB Selection Morse
This is the narrative read of the 7:30 Leopardstown. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Leopardstown racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is expected to take the uncontested lead?
Vega's Muse is the only front-runner and is likely to take up the lone leader role.
How many of the principals are held-up runners?
Three of the four principals – Morse, Coeur d'Or and Abbey Actress – are held-up runners.
Which horse has the highest RPR in the field?
Coeur d'Or has the highest RPR at 102.
Which jockey has the strongest strike rate at Leopardstown among the principals?
Patrick McGettigan has a 16% strike rate at Leopardstown with an A/E of 1.64 from 25 rides.
On which ground has Abbey Actress shown her best record?
Abbey Actress has a solid record on soft ground with a win and two places from three starts.
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