8:30 Leopardstown
The Sandyford Business District Handicap at Leopardstown brings together a field of 22 modest performers over 1m1f on soft ground. With a genuinely-run pace shape and a front-runner likely to be pressed by several handy types, this looks a fair test at the trip. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched at the top, with Launch Time heading the numbers on 63, just ahead of Staywitherjohnny on 61 and Secret Magician on 59.
How the race shapes up
A front-runner is expected to set the pace and will be pressed early by several prominent runners, ensuring a genuinely-run race. Several mid-division types and hold-up performers will look to pick up the pieces as the race develops in the straight. The key question is whether the prominent group can dictate terms on this soft surface or if the race will fall to something coming from further back with a strong late run.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Launch Time KTB Selection63/100Modest performer who won on his only previous start at this track.
- 2Staywitherjohnny61/100Modest performer who has shown little spark in three starts this year and ran to form when sixth over a mile here last time.
- 3Secret Magician59/100Secret Magician is a modest performer who has been largely out of form this year with a recent string of poor efforts.
- 4Porsche Lad58/100Modest performer who has been consistent enough of late with three placed efforts in his last five starts yet remains winless after 16 runs.
- 5Desert Of The Sea55/100Desert Of The Sea is a modest performer who has been consistent enough to place three times from his last five starts but has never won in 17 career runs.
- 6Roderick53/100Modest performer who has been out of form for some time with recent efforts of 407-70.
- 7Hale Bopp52/100Modest performer who has been largely out of form this year and arrives with a recent string of poor efforts.
- 8Rampage52/100Rampage is a modest performer who has won once from 13 starts at Leopardstown and has scored twice from 12 attempts at this trip.
- 9Rodeo Blues52/100Rodeo Blues showed more on handicap debut when fourth at Gowran ten days ago though he still looked green and was beaten over six lengths.
- 10Rockbury Lad50/100Modest performer who has run eight times at Leopardstown without winning and has shown little on soft ground in four attempts.
- 11Nibras Rainbow49/100Modest performer who ran poorly over 1m here on his only previous visit to Leopardstown.
- 12Oreeda49/100Modest performer who has struggled to make an impact in eight starts and arrives here on the back of a poor recent record.
- 13Slaney Swagger48/100Modest performer who has been placed on his only visit to Leopardstown and is competitive on soft ground.
- 14Crackles48/100Crackles is a modest performer who has failed to trouble the judge in six starts and was well beaten on handicap debut at Listowel 11 days ago.
- 15Medieval Night48/100Modest performer who has been well beaten on his last three starts and arrives with a recent form line of 8-0808.
- 16Colugo44/100Modest performer who has been consistent enough in recent starts without threatening to win.
- 17Khormor Syd44/100Khormor Syd is a modest performer who has shown better form of late with two placed efforts from his last three starts.
- 18Nephin Mountain44/100Modest performer who has shown his best efforts at Gowran over 7f on soft ground, finishing fourth in a couple of handicaps in April.
- 19Folk Warrior43/100Limited performer who has shown very little in six previous Flat starts and over hurdles.
- 20Ella's Gold43/100Ella's Gold has shown fair form in handicaps with two placed efforts on soft and heavy ground last autumn but ran poorly on her return at Fairyhouse.
- 21Garryowen Green39/100Limited performer who has shown very little in three maidens and now starts handicap life from the bottom rung.
- 22One For Teigan37/100Limited performer who has shown nothing in six maidens and brings an RPR of just 28 into this handicap debut.
The contenders
Launch Time KTB Fit 63/100
Launch Time is a modest performer who won on his only previous start at this track. He steps up in trip today having shown his best form over a mile and has no experience on soft ground. The trainer has a 20% strike rate at Leopardstown with an A/E of 2.6 from five runs, though the jockey's 4% strike rate at the track from 406 rides is a negative. He has figures of RPR 65 and TS 56, with recent form of 348-14. Usually races handily on or close to the lead, his prominent run-style should see him involved in the early battle from stall 22. This four-year-old is the KTB Selection.
Staywitherjohnny KTB Fit 61/100
Staywitherjohnny is a modest performer who has shown little spark in three starts this year and ran to form when sixth over a mile here last time. He steps up in trip today having failed to make the frame in three previous tries at this distance while his two runs on soft ground also yielded no win or place. The trainer has a 10% strike rate at Leopardstown with an A/E of 1.54 from 60 runs and the jockey is operating at 13% from 267 rides here. He holds figures of RPR 65 and TS 56, with recent form of 09-639. Typically settles in midfield, which should see him well placed to launch a challenge if the prominent runners go hard early.
Secret Magician KTB Fit 59/100
Secret Magician is a modest performer who has been largely out of form this year with a recent string of poor efforts. He has shown some competitiveness on soft ground but remains winless and steps up in trip today having achieved little at this distance before. The yard and jockey both have solid enough records at Leopardstown though the horse himself was well held on his only previous run here. With figures of RPR 61 and TS 56 and recent form of 008030, he has placed twice from nine runs on soft. Typically settles in midfield from stall 1, which could prove an advantageous position in a big-field handicap.
Porsche Lad KTB Fit 58/100
Porsche Lad is a modest performer who has been consistent enough of late with three placed efforts in his last five starts yet remains winless after 16 runs. He has no experience of soft ground and is dropping back in trip from 1m4f having failed to make the frame when tried at this distance before. The trainer has a 5% strike rate at Leopardstown with an A/E of 0.75 from 38 runs, offset by the jockey’s 17% strike rate at the track from a small sample of six rides. Figures read RPR 67 and TS 12, with recent form of -72243. Usually races handily on or close to the lead, though the wide draw in stall 21 adds to the difficulties.
Desert Of The Sea KTB Fit 55/100
Desert Of The Sea is a modest performer who has been consistent enough to place three times from his last five starts but has never won in 17 career runs. He steps up in trip today having failed to trouble the judge in two previous attempts at this distance and his only run on soft ground brought no reward. The trainer has a 5% strike rate at Leopardstown with an A/E of 0.76 from 432 runs, offset by the jockey’s strong 17% record from a small sample of six rides here, while this first run at the track itself remains an unknown. He has figures of RPR 64 and TS 61, with recent form of 4-2327. Usually races handily on or close to the lead from a decent draw in stall 7.
The rest of the field
RoderickKTB Fit 53/100
Roderick is a modest performer who has been out of form for some time with recent efforts of 407-70. He has run well enough at this track in the past with placed efforts from three starts and has also shown he can be competitive on soft ground. Stepping up in trip today asks a fresh question of a 10-year-old with a modest overall profile.
Hale BoppKTB Fit 52/100
Hale Bopp is a modest performer who has been largely out of form this year and arrives with a recent string of poor efforts. Has run five times at Leopardstown without placing and the trainer's modest 4% strike rate here adds little encouragement. Steps up in trip today having achieved little at this distance before and his sole soft-ground run was unplaced.
RampageKTB Fit 52/100
Rampage is a modest performer who has won once from 13 starts at Leopardstown and has scored twice from 12 attempts at this trip. He acts on soft ground with a win and two places from five runs but arrives in poor form having failed to finish in the first six on his last four outings. The trainer and jockey both have a 5% strike rate at the track from large samples.
Rodeo BluesKTB Fit 52/100
Rodeo Blues showed more on handicap debut when fourth at Gowran ten days ago though he still looked green and was beaten over six lengths. He drops back in trip now having failed to make an impact in three maidens and was well held on his only previous run here. The yard has a 12% strike rate at Leopardstown from over a thousand runs while McDonogh is operating at 9% from even more rides at the track.
Rockbury LadKTB Fit 50/100
Rockbury Lad is a modest performer who has run eight times at Leopardstown without winning and has shown little on soft ground in four attempts. He steps up in trip today having won once at this distance from eight runs though his recent form is patchy and the yard’s modest strike rate here adds little confidence. High data confidence but the overall profile remains limited.
Nibras RainbowKTB Fit 49/100
Nibras Rainbow is a modest performer who ran poorly over 1m here on his only previous visit to Leopardstown. He showed a bit more spark when winning a handicap at Dundalk last time but steps up in trip today having failed to place in five previous attempts at this distance. Trainer and jockey both have modest records at the track.
OreedaKTB Fit 49/100
Oreeda is a modest performer who has struggled to make an impact in eight starts and arrives here on the back of a poor recent record. Trainer Patrick J Flynn has a 7% strike rate from 544 runs at Leopardstown while this is a first appearance at the track for the horse and the jockey has no recorded rides here. Steps up in trip today having been unproven on soft ground last time out.
Slaney SwaggerKTB Fit 48/100
Slaney Swagger is a modest performer who has been placed on his only visit to Leopardstown and is competitive on soft ground. Drops back in trip today having last run over further and he has placed form at this distance without winning. Trainer remains winless from 19 runs here while the jockey operates at a 6% strike rate from a large sample of rides.
CracklesKTB Fit 48/100
Crackles is a modest performer who has failed to trouble the judge in six starts and was well beaten on handicap debut at Listowel 11 days ago. He steps up to 1m1f for the first time today having shown little at 7f last time. The trainer has a 6% strike rate from 108 runs at Leopardstown while the jockey is on 8% from 572 rides here.
Medieval NightKTB Fit 48/100
Medieval Night is a modest performer who has been well beaten on his last three starts and arrives with a recent form line of 8-0808. He has placed here at Leopardstown before though and the step up to 1m1f is worth a try given he has been placed at the trip in the past. The yard's modest 5% strike rate at the track and the jockey's 7% record here add little encouragement.
ColugoKTB Fit 44/100
Colugo is a modest performer who has been consistent enough in recent starts without threatening to win. Drops back from 2m to a trip he has tried twice before without success and has no experience on soft ground. Trainer is still seeking a first Leopardstown winner from 29 attempts while the jockey has a solid record here.
Khormor SydKTB Fit 44/100
Khormor Syd is a modest performer who has shown better form of late with two placed efforts from his last three starts. He is dropping back in trip from 1m4f to 1m1f where he has been placed once in two runs without winning and he has handled soft ground competitively in the past. The trainer has a 0% strike rate from 12 runs at Leopardstown while the jockey operates at 8% from 835 rides here.
Nephin MountainKTB Fit 44/100
Nephin Mountain is a modest performer who has shown his best efforts at Gowran over 7f on soft ground, finishing fourth in a couple of handicaps in April. Steps up to 1m1f for the first time today which asks a fresh question while his two runs here read 13th and 6th. Trainer and jockey both operate at a low strike rate at Leopardstown.
Folk WarriorKTB Fit 43/100
Folk Warrior is a limited performer who has shown very little in six previous Flat starts and over hurdles. He plugged on into fifth at Dundalk over 1m4f last time but that was still well below the standard required here and he now drops back in trip to a distance he has never tried. Trainer strikes at 4% from 90 runs at Leopardstown while jockey is 10% from 1511 rides at the track.
Ella's GoldKTB Fit 43/100
Ella's Gold has shown fair form in handicaps with two placed efforts on soft and heavy ground last autumn but ran poorly on her return at Fairyhouse. She drops back in trip to an untried 1m1f today which asks a fresh question of her. The yard has a 5% strike rate from 82 runs at Leopardstown while the jockey is 7% from 357 rides here.
Garryowen GreenKTB Fit 39/100
Garryowen Green is a limited performer who has shown very little in three maidens and now starts handicap life from the bottom rung. The trainer has failed to land a winner from 34 rides at Leopardstown while the jockeys modest 8 percent strike rate from a huge sample of rides here also fails to inspire. Dropping back in trip is an unknown and the small amount of form on record offers no encouragement.
One For TeiganKTB Fit 37/100
One For Teigan is a limited performer who has shown nothing in six maidens and brings an RPR of just 28 into this handicap debut. Drops back to 1m1f having failed to make any impression at that trip before. Trainer holds a 9% strike rate at Leopardstown from 11 runs while jockey is operating at 11% from 159 rides here.
KTB verdict
Launch Time is the KTB Selection. He won on his only previous start at Leopardstown and his prominent style should see him to the fore in what is set to be a genuinely-run race. His yard has a strong recent record at the track, which helps his claims despite the unproven stamina and lack of soft-ground experience. The main dangers are Staywitherjohnny, who ran to form over a mile here last time and has a solid trainer-jockey combination at the venue, and Secret Magician, who has shown competitiveness on soft and benefits from a low draw. Porsche Lad and Desert Of The Sea add further depth to a competitive handicap.
KTB Selection Launch Time
This is the narrative read of the 8:30 Leopardstown. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Leopardstown racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has course form at Leopardstown and a prominent run style?
Launch Time won on his only previous start at this track and usually races handily on or close to the lead.
Who has the strongest jockey record at Leopardstown among the principals?
Desert Of The Sea has a jockey with a 17% strike rate at Leopardstown from a small sample of six rides.
Which runner has placed form on soft ground but is stepping up in trip?
Secret Magician has placed 2 of 9 on soft and steps up in trip today having achieved little at this distance before.
How many of the field have no experience of soft ground?
Several runners including Launch Time, Porsche Lad, Rodeo Blues, Oreeda, Crackles, Colugo, Ella's Gold, Garryowen Green and One For Teigan have no runs on soft.
Which horse has the best recent form figures among the top five in the KTB Fit rankings?
Porsche Lad has recent form of -72243 with three placed efforts in his last five starts.
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