4:50 Gowran Park
A 13-runner 7f handicap for three-year-olds at Gowran Park on soft ground looks a typically competitive affair at this level. The KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched at the top, with five principals separated by just two points, underlining how little separates many of these lightly raced types on paper. Recent form is mixed and several runners arrive with questions to answer regarding the softening surface, while the lack of course experience for most adds another layer of uncertainty to the puzzle.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape suggests a fairly even gallop with no obvious front-runner dominating. Several prominent runners are drawn middle to low, including Moon Aura from stall three and Imnotleavinyou in six, while Cantilever and Love Bomb can also be handy. The key question is whether the race will be decided by those racing prominently on the drying side of the track or if the hold-up horses such as Fate's Gambit can pick up the pieces if the leaders go hard early.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Sagasti54/100
- 2Fate's Gambit KTB Selection54/100
- 3Love Bomb53/100
- 4Imnotleavinyou53/100
- 5Moon Aura52/100
- 6Eschweiler51/100
- 7Cantilever51/100
- 8Sancerre Rock49/100
- 9Pocket Jacks38/100
- 10Apothic Red36/100
- 11Gilts34/100
- 12Push Harder32/100
- 13New Divide32/100
The contenders
Sagasti KTB Fit 54/100
Sagasti is the top-rated on KTB Fit at 54 and represents a trainer with an 11/41 record when teaming up with Dylan Browne McMonagle, a combination that has produced a healthy A/E of 1.67. The three-year-old has shown some ability, notably finishing third on his penultimate start, though his latest effort was modest. He has no experience of soft ground and no previous runs at Gowran, which adds an element of risk, yet the yard's 12% strike rate at the track suggests they know what is required. The booking of Browne McMonagle, who has a 16% strike rate here, is a positive, and he should be capable of a bold show if the ground does not prove too testing.
Fate's Gambit KTB Fit 54/100
Fate's Gambit shares the highest KTB Fit rating of 54 and is the selection. A consistent performer with form figures of 25355, he has been competitive in similar company without quite getting his head in front. First-time headgear is now applied, which could sharpen him up at a key time. The trainer has no previous record at Gowran but boasts a solid 25% strike rate from 48 runs overall, while the jockey has a more modest 5% record at the venue. With only one previous run on soft ground yielding no win or place, there is a question mark over conditions, yet his general level of form suggests he should go well from draw nine.
Love Bomb KTB Fit 53/100
Love Bomb comes in with a KTB Fit of 53 and is trained by W McCreery, who has an 11% strike rate at Gowran from 344 runs. The booking of Megan Telford-Kelly is interesting given her 50% strike rate at the track from just four rides and an A/E of 7.17. Recent form of 90470 is patchy, but the filly has had two runs on soft ground without winning or placing. She lacks course form but the trainer-jockey combination could spark improvement, and she is drawn to get a nice position early from stall five.
Imnotleavinyou KTB Fit 53/100
Imnotleavinyou also scores 53 on KTB Fit and arrives in good heart with recent form figures of 22291, including a win last time out. He has placed three times from four starts on soft ground without winning, showing he handles the conditions well enough to be competitive. The horse has course experience, having finished second and 13th in two runs at Gowran, so the track holds no fears. Trainer Michael Mulvany has a 7% strike rate here, while jockey J M Sheridan is 9% at the venue, and from draw six he should be able to track the leaders effectively.
Moon Aura KTB Fit 52/100
Moon Aura is rated 52 on KTB Fit for Mrs John Harrington, whose 11% strike rate at Gowran from over a thousand runs commands respect. The three-year-old has shown steady progression in three starts with form of 864, though he has yet to encounter soft ground. Keithen Kennedy takes the ride and has an 11% strike rate at the track from 28 rides. Drawn in three, he is likely to be prominent early, and the yard's excellent record at the venue means he cannot be dismissed despite the lack of experience on testing going.
The rest of the field
EschweilerKTB Fit 51/100
Eschweiler is rated 51 on KTB Fit. The two-year-old has form of 528- and is trained by Gary & Josh Moore, but has no experience of soft ground or Gowran Park.
CantileverKTB Fit 51/100
Cantilever scores 51 on KTB Fit with form of 0-50. J A Stack has a 12% strike rate at Gowran and teams up with Seamie Heffernan, who is 11% at the track; he has had one run on soft.
Sancerre RockKTB Fit 49/100
Sancerre Rock is rated 49 on KTB Fit with form of 660. He has one previous run at Gowran when sixth and is unproven on soft ground.
Pocket JacksKTB Fit 38/100
Pocket Jacks has a KTB Fit of 38 and recent form of 97-63. He is unproven on soft and has no course form.
Apothic RedKTB Fit 36/100
Apothic Red is rated 36 on KTB Fit with form of 70-865. He has one run on soft and was seventh on his only previous start at Gowran.
GiltsKTB Fit 34/100
Gilts scores 34 on KTB Fit with form of 079. He has had one run on soft ground without placing.
Push HarderKTB Fit 32/100
Push Harder has a KTB Fit of 32 and form of 8053-6. The trainer has a 0% strike rate at Gowran from ten runs and the horse is unproven on soft.
New DivideKTB Fit 32/100
New Divide is rated 32 on KTB Fit with form of 060 and now tries first-time headgear. He has had two runs on soft without placing.
KTB verdict
Fate's Gambit is the KTB Selection and arrives with the joint-highest Fit rating alongside consistent form that suggests he is well up to this level. The application of first-time headgear could bring about the necessary improvement for him to take advantage of what looks an open race. Imnotleavinyou is a clear danger on the back of a recent win and proven ability on soft ground, while Sagasti, Love Bomb and Moon Aura are all capable of featuring if the conditions suit.
KTB Selection Fate's Gambit
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:00 UTC, 12 Jun. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Sagasti | 11/2 | Bet365 |
| Fate's Gambit | 12/1 | Bet365 |
| Love Bomb | 16/1 | BetTom |
| Imnotleavinyou | 3/1 | Bet365 |
| Moon Aura | 9/1 | Bet365 |
| Eschweiler | 16/1 | Bet365 |
| Cantilever | 11/1 | Bet365 |
| Sancerre Rock | 14/1 | Bet365 |
| Pocket Jacks | 11/2 | BetTom |
| Apothic Red | 6/1 | BetTom |
| Gilts | 22/1 | BetTom |
| Push Harder | 11/1 | BetTom |
| New Divide | 33/1 | BetTom |
This is the narrative read of the 4:50 Gowran Park. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Gowran Park racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has course and distance experience at Gowran?
Imnotleavinyou has run twice at Gowran, finishing second and 13th, while Sancerre Rock has one run here when sixth. No horse has a course-and-distance win.
Who has the best recent soft-ground form?
Imnotleavinyou has placed three times from four starts on soft ground. Love Bomb, Fate's Gambit, Cantilever, Apothic Red, Gilts and New Divide have all had soft-ground runs without placing.
Which trainer-jockey combination has the strongest recent record at Gowran Park?
W McCreery and Megan Telford-Kelly have a 50% strike rate at Gowran from four rides with an A/E of 7.17.
Which horses are wearing headgear for the first time?
Fate's Gambit and New Divide are both fitted with first-time headgear.
Which runners are unproven on soft ground?
Sagasti, Moon Aura, Eschweiler, Sancerre Rock, Pocket Jacks and Push Harder have no runs on soft ground.
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