4:15 Wetherby
This Class 6 handicap division at Wetherby over 5f110y on good ground features a field of nine limited performers where the KTB Fit Scores sit in a relatively tight band from 58 down to 32. Most of the runners arrive with modest recent form and questions to answer about trip, ground or course, though the top two in the KTB ranking bring the strongest combination of ability and course-jockey stats. The race looks winnable for a horse that can rediscover a bit of spark at this trip.
How the race shapes up
With several runners that tend to race prominently or up with the pace, including those drawn low, the race is expected to be run at a solid gallop. Angel Of England from draw 3 and Dark Kestrel from draw 2 are both likely to be forward, while Crafty Spirit from stall 1 could also be involved early. The key question is whether the pace holds up or collapses late, given that several principals are stepping up from 5f and may be vulnerable if the race becomes a test of stamina over the extra half furlong.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Angel Of England KTB Selection58/100Angel Of England is a limited class performer who has been out of form for most of this year with a string of poor efforts.
- 2Dark Kestrel52/100Limited performer who has been out of form for some time and finished seventh of eight when he ran here over 5f in June.
- 3Furrst Lady49/100Limited performer who has shown little in five starts to date and arrives here with plenty to prove.
- 4Ski Angel47/100Ski Angel is a limited performer who has been running to a similar level for some time and arrives here in modest nick after three ordinary efforts this year.
- 5Solar Biricz45/100Solar Biricz is a limited performer on the evidence of 19 starts and recent form of 0-0400.
- 6Happier44/100Limited performer who has been out of form for some time and was well beaten on reappearance.
- 7Golden Prosperity39/100Limited horse who has been out of form for some time with a string of poor efforts since his last win.
- 8Bishop's Glory35/100Bishop's Glory has shown consistent placed form this year but remains a limited performer at this level and was well held when tried here once before.
- 9Crafty Spirit32/100Crafty Spirit has a limited level of ability and has been largely out of form for some time.
The contenders
Angel Of England KTB Fit 58/100
Angel Of England is a limited class performer who has been out of form for most of this year with a string of poor efforts. He drops back to his winning trip today and has shown he can be competitive on good ground, though he remains winless in seven runs on it. The trainer holds a modest 7% strike rate here while the jockey fares better at 16%. Recent form of 000U92 reflects that lack of spark, yet the drop in trip from his latest starts gives him a chance to be competitive again from a favourable draw of 3. Tom Eaves teams up having shown a 16% strike rate at Wetherby with an A/E of 2.02.
Dark Kestrel KTB Fit 52/100
Dark Kestrel is a limited performer who has been out of form for some time and finished seventh of eight when he ran here over 5f in June. He has won at this trip before but steps back up in distance today having raced exclusively over the minimum trip this year. Trainer and jockey both operate at a 7% strike rate at Wetherby. His recent form reads 164467 and he is dropping in class which may help, though his record on good ground shows five runs without a win or place. From draw 2 he is likely to be forward in a race where pace could be important.
Furrst Lady KTB Fit 49/100
Furrst Lady is a limited performer who has shown little in five starts to date and arrives here with plenty to prove. Steps up from 5f to 5.5f having failed to trouble the judge in three previous attempts at today's trip. First-time headgear is reached for while the yard and jockey both have solid records at Wetherby. Recent form of R87-08 underlines the lack of impact so far. The trainer's 11% strike rate and the jockey's 13% at the track provide some encouragement, yet she remains hard to fancy on what she has shown.
Ski Angel KTB Fit 47/100
Ski Angel is a limited performer who has been running to a similar level for some time and arrives here in modest nick after three ordinary efforts this year. She steps up from 5f to a trip she has won at before and acts on good ground though her record on it is nothing special. The trainer has an 8% strike rate from 36 runs at Wetherby while the 5lb claimer is too lightly raced here to assess. Recent form of 59-456 shows she is holding her form at a modest level. From the widest draw of 9 she may have to work early to get a position in what is likely to be a strongly run race.
The rest of the field
Solar BiriczKTB Fit 45/100
Solar Biricz is a limited performer on the evidence of 19 starts and recent form of 0-0400. He has won twice at today's trip though and is dropping back from 6f, while the first-time headgear is another possible plus. The yard's solid record here and Jason Hart's above-average strike-rate at Wetherby add some interest on his first run at the track.
HappierKTB Fit 44/100
Happier is a limited performer who has been out of form for some time and was well beaten on reappearance. Drops back to a trip he has won at before but his record on good ground is modest and the yard's modest strike rate here adds little confidence. First run at Wetherby so that side remains an unknown.
Golden ProsperityKTB Fit 39/100
Golden Prosperity is a limited horse who has been out of form for some time with a string of poor efforts since his last win. He has shown nothing at this track in two runs and is dropping back to a trip he has won over in the past though his recent efforts give little encouragement. Trainer has had only two runners at the course so far while the jockey has no recorded rides here.
Bishop's GloryKTB Fit 35/100
Bishop's Glory has shown consistent placed form this year but remains a limited performer at this level and was well held when tried here once before. He steps up from 5f today having won over this trip in the past though the move looks a fresh question on just his second run at the distance in 19 attempts. The yard and jockey have no prior form at Wetherby and he is unproven on good ground.
Crafty SpiritKTB Fit 32/100
Crafty Spirit has a limited level of ability and has been largely out of form for some time. He showed a bit more spark when runner-up on his most recent start but that was over the shorter 5f trip and he steps up in distance today having won once in 18 attempts at this range. The trainer has a poor 1% strike-rate from 155 runs at Wetherby while the horse has shown no spark in one previous run here or in five starts on good ground.
KTB verdict
Angel Of England is the KTB Selection. A limited performer who has been out of form for most of this year, he drops back to his winning trip today and has shown he can be competitive on good ground. The combination of the trainer's record at Wetherby and the jockey's stronger 16% strike rate at the track adds to the case from a good draw. His main dangers are likely to be Dark Kestrel, who drops in class having won over this trip before, and Crafty Spirit if he can build on his latest runner-up effort despite the step back up in distance.
KTB Selection Angel Of England
This is the narrative read of the 4:15 Wetherby. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Wetherby racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Why is Angel Of England the selection despite a string of poor efforts this year?
He drops back to his winning trip today and has shown he can be competitive on good ground.
How does the pace shape look for this 5f110y handicap?
Several runners are likely to go forward from low draws, suggesting a solid gallop where the ability to see out the extra half furlong will be important.
What does first-time headgear bring to Furrst Lady and Solar Biricz?
First-time headgear is applied to both as a possible plus for limited performers who have shown little recently.
Which horse steps up in trip having won over this distance before?
Dark Kestrel, Ski Angel, Happier and Bishop's Glory have all won at this trip previously.
How do the Wetherby trainer and jockey stats influence the principals?
Angel Of England benefits from the jockey's 16% strike rate and A/E 2.02 at the track, while Furrst Lady has a yard with an 11% strike rate and jockey with 13% here.
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About the A/E figures in this preview. They are the data supplier’s: the winners a trainer or jockey had, divided by the winners the starting prices implied, over the runs in that record. Above 1.0 means more wins than the prices suggested. It is not KTB’s fair A/E, which allows for the bookmakers’ margin and the favourite–longshot bias, and the two are not comparable.
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