Certain Promise (USA)
Certain Promise (USA) is 2 from 6, both wins coming at Class 5 level. Hasn't won since Aug 2008. Each win came on a first visit to the course. Last raced off a career-high mark of 77.
- 2–6Wins / Runs
- 33.3%Strike rate
- 3 (50%)Placed
- +0.17£1 level staken=6 at SP
- 1.45Fair A/E n=6 · 1.24 incl. margin
- 77Highest OR
- 63dAvg between runs
A/E compares actual wins with what starting prices implied. "Fair" strips the bookmaker margin from the expectation, so favourites and longshots are judged on the same footing — figures near 1.00 mean the market priced this horse about right.
KTB Speed and Rating
No KTB Speed figures for this horse. The engine scores GB and Irish racing from Oct 2016; runs elsewhere, or earlier, have no figure.
KTB Speed v1 · batch 15 Sep 2026 · GB & Irish racing only · 0 figures from 0 runs · a record, not a forecast
Both figures are KTB's own, computed from the archive; no vendor rating enters either. Every run's figure is on its form line below with its grade. Grades measure how much the archive could see, never the merit of the run.
Run style is derived from in-running commentary, which our data provider does not supply for this horse's races.
Pedigree intelligence
Progeny in our archive have won 9.4% of 501 runs since Jan 2008 (55 horses).
Strongest on standard (aw) going: 13.4% from 119. Strongest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 15% from 140.
| Going | Runs | Wins | SR | vs sire | This horse |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Firm | 5 | 0 | 0% | −9.4 | 0 from 1 |
| Good to Firm | 96 | 8 | 8.3% | −1.1 | 1 from 1 |
| Good | 139 | 11 | 7.9% | −1.5 | 0 from 1 |
| Good to Soft | 61 | 5 | 8.2% | −1.2 | 1 from 2 |
| Soft | 60 | 6 | 10% | +0.6 | — |
| Heavy | 21 | 1 | 4.8% | −4.6 | — |
| Standard (AW) | 119 | 16 | 13.4% | +4 | 0 from 1 |
| Distance (all codes) | Runs | Wins | SR | vs sire | This horse |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 6f | 5 | 0 | 0% | −9.4 | — |
| 6f – 7f | 75 | 7 | 9.3% | −0.1 | 0 from 1 |
| 1m – 1m1f | 140 | 21 | 15% | +5.6 | 2 from 3 |
| 1m2f – 1m4f | 158 | 14 | 8.9% | −0.5 | 0 from 2 |
| 1m5f – 2m | 66 | 3 | 4.5% | −4.9 | — |
| 2m1f – 2m4f | 38 | 1 | 2.6% | −6.8 | — |
| 2m5f – 3m | 15 | 1 | 6.7% | −2.7 | — |
| Over 3m | 4 | 0 | 0% | −9.4 | — |
Flat and jumps together (all codes) · since Jan 2008 · as at 20 Oct 2026 · rows under 30 runs muted · win % is the measure, a record not a forecast
2 siblings in the archive, 1 winner — best of them Spanish Moon (USA) (6 wins).
The wins came over 7f–1m4f; the highest grade won is Group 1 (Spanish Moon (USA)).
| Produce | Runs | Wins | Win trips | Best grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spanish Moon (USA) | 12 | 6 | 7f–1m4f | Group 1 |
| Phrase (GB) | 3 | 0 | — | — |
Record by conditions
| Going | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Good to Soft | 2 | 1 | 50% | −0.33 |
| Standard (AW) | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Good to Firm | 1 | 1 | 100% | +3.50 |
| Firm | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Good | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Class | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Class 4 | 3 | 0 | 0% | −3.00 |
| Class 5 | 3 | 2 | 67% | +3.17 |
| Course | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelmsford (AW) | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Yarmouth | 1 | 1 | 100% | +0.67 |
| Leicester | 1 | 1 | 100% | +3.50 |
| Brighton | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Newbury | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Newmarket | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Distance | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1m – 1m1f | 3 | 2 | 67% | +3.17 |
| 1m2f – 1m4f | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| 6f – 7f | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Jockey | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Moore | 4 | 1 | 25% | −2.33 |
| Tom Queally | 2 | 1 | 50% | +2.50 |
| Season | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | 5 | 2 | 40% | +1.17 |
| 2007 | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
Splits include every sample, however small — muted rows are under 3 runs. A one-from-one record is a fact, not a trend: read the Runs column before the strike rate.
Form
| Date | Course | Race | Pos | Btn | Wgt | OR | KTB | Jockey | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Sep 08+37d | Chelmsford (AW) | Cirl Bunting Handicap | 12/13 | 11 | 8-8 | 77 | 48C | Tom Queally | 7/2F |
| 07 Aug 08+8d | Yarmouth | Parklands Leisure Holiday Caravans Fillies' Handicap | 1/7 | 9-9 | 72 | 86A | Ryan Moore | 4/6F | |
| 30 Jul 08+24d | Leicester | T.C. Harrison Group Handicap | 1/12 | 9-6 | 66 | 86A | Tom Queally | 7/2F | |
| 06 Jul 08+79d | Brighton | Barking Brickwork Maiden Stakes | 2/5 | 8 | 8-12 | 66 | 70C | Ryan Moore | 7/2 |
| 18 Apr 08+167d | Newbury | Robert Sangster Memorial Maiden Fillies' Stakes (Div 2) | 8/9 | 6 | 9-0 | 77 | 55A | Ryan Moore | 4/1 |
| 03 Nov 07 | Newmarket | Bet365 E.B.F. Maiden Fillies' Stakes (Div 1) | 10/19 | hd | 9-0 | — | 66C | Ryan Moore | 11/2 |
Quick answers
- How many races has Certain Promise (USA) won?
- Certain Promise (USA) won 2 of 6 archived starts between 2007 and 2008, a strike rate of 33.3%. Placed 3 times in total (50% of starts).
- Who trained Certain Promise (USA)?
- Certain Promise (USA) was trained by Sir Michael Stoute on the most recent run on record, at Chelmsford (AW) on 13 September 2008.
- Who is Certain Promise (USA)'s sire?
- Certain Promise (USA) is by El Prado (IRE) out of Shining Bright (GB), whose sire is Rainbow Quest.
- What is Certain Promise (USA)'s official rating?
- The most recent official rating on record is 77, from the run on 13 September 2008. That is also the highest on record.
- What is Certain Promise (USA)'s sire's record?
- El Prado (IRE)'s progeny in our archive have won 9.4% of 501 runs since Jan 2008 (55 horses), Flat and jumps together. Strongest on standard (aw) going: 13.4% from 119. Strongest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 15% from 140.
- Who are Certain Promise (USA)'s siblings?
- Out of Shining Bright (GB), Certain Promise (USA) has 2 other produce in our archive, 1 of them a winner. Most wins: Spanish Moon (USA) (6). Highest grade won: Group 1 (Spanish Moon (USA)). The wins came over 7f–1m4f. As at Oct 2026.