Sir Michael Stoute
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Sends out around 120 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 15% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.83). The edge shows sharpest with horses returning fresh: 20% off breaks of two months or more (172 runs).
It is weakest at Chelmsford City (AW) (6.7% over 30 runners) — the widest gap in the record. Horses returning fresh after 61+ days have been a positive signal at 19.8% (n=172, Fair A/E 1.04), but debutants struggle at 8.9% (n=90, Fair A/E 0.89). The market has consistently overbet in Group and Graded company the record: 14.7% strike, Fair A/E 0.79 and −15.69 to a £1 stake over 102 runners — those runners underperform what the price implies. Richard Kingscote rides 41% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (15%, A/E 0.82). The yard also reads well off a break of 180+ days (25.9%, n=85). The record reads poorly in Class 2 — 6.5% over 77 runners, 8.4pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the yard on Good to Soft going: Fair A/E 0.41 across 57 runners (7% strike, −31.97 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies. 321 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Qatar Prix De L'Arc De Triomphe at Longchamp (FR) (Oct 2010, £2,022,655). The stable star of the record: Mustashry (GB) — 9 wins from 21 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires Apr–May.
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 14.9% baselineEach tile is the record in that situation vs the 14.9% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baselineRecord by conditions
same window as headerGoing
Courses
Class
Market position
Distance
By season
Handicaps
Field size
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Horses trained
same window as header · most-raced firstWhen the yard fires
strike by month, 5 seasonsJockey bookings
same window · biggest samples firstCareer highlights
lifetime archive, 2005→Sires in the string
progeny record · win % by ground and tripThe record
latest 50 of 7,989 · newest firstThe latest 50 of 7,989 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 2 April 2005 to 6 November 2024.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
- What is Sir Michael Stoute's strike rate?
- Sir Michael Stoute has won 91 of 610 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 14.9% (as at 15 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
- Which course does Sir Michael Stoute do best at?
- Yarmouth by strike rate: 7 wins from 34 runners (20.6%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
- Who rides most for Sir Michael Stoute?
- Richard Kingscote, with 253 runners since 2022 — 41% of the total. That pairing has won 38 (15%).
- What is Sir Michael Stoute's Fair A/E?
- 0.83, from 608 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.