Expecto (IRE)
Expecto won the Kilkenny Nursery Handicap at Gowran Park in Oct 2023 on heavy ground off an official rating of 55. The filly, by Profitable out of a Showcasing mare, has one win and four places from 16 turf starts and last ran off an official rating of 55. She finished 13 of 14 at Chepstow in May 2025 in a Class 6 handicap. Aged 4 at her last run in May 2025.
- 1–16Wins / Runs
- 6.3%Strike rate
- 4 (25%)Placed
- −8.00£1 level staken=16 at SP
- 0.88Fair A/E n=16 · 0.73 incl. margin
- 61Highest OR
- 52dAvg between runs
A/E compares actual wins with what starting prices implied. "Fair" strips the bookmaker margin from the expectation, so favourites and longshots are judged on the same footing — figures near 1.00 mean the market priced this horse about right.
KTB Speed and Rating
Best recent Speed 85
How fast the horse ran, as points against the day-corrected standard time for its course and distance: 100 is the median GB Class 4 handicap winner on that code; one point is 0.1% of the standard time. A, B or C is how much the day's card could tell us, not how good the run was. What this means →
| Going | Runs | Best | Median | Since 21 Oct 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy | 5 | 85A | 61 | — |
| Good | 4 | 95C | 84.5 | — |
| Soft | 3 | 100C | 72 | — |
| Good to Firm | 2 | 77A | 66 | — |
| Firm | 1 | — | — | — |
| Good to Soft | 1 | — | — | — |
| Distance | Runs | Best | Median | Since 21 Oct 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1m – 1m1f | 9 | 89C | 72 | — |
| 6f – 7f | 3 | 95C | 80 | — |
| Under 6f | 3 | 61A | 49 | — |
| 1m2f – 1m4f | 1 | — | — | — |
KTB Speed v1 · batch 15 Sep 2026 · GB & Irish racing only · 16 figures from 16 runs · as at 3 Oct 2026 · a record, not a forecast
Both figures are KTB's own, computed from the archive; no vendor rating enters either. Every run's figure is on its form line below with its grade. Grades measure how much the archive could see, never the merit of the run.
Pedigree intelligence
Progeny in our archive have won 9.5% of 4,412 runs since Jan 2008 (357 horses).
| Going | Runs | Wins | SR | vs sire | This horse |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Firm | 20 | 2 | 10% | +0.5 | 0 from 1 |
| Good to Firm | 646 | 60 | 9.3% | −0.2 | 0 from 2 |
| Good | 1,016 | 110 | 10.8% | +1.3 | 0 from 4 |
| Good to Soft | 413 | 31 | 7.5% | −2 | 0 from 1 |
| Soft | 547 | 48 | 8.8% | −0.7 | 0 from 3 |
| Heavy | 153 | 11 | 7.2% | −2.3 | 1 from 5 |
| Standard (AW) | 1,617 | 156 | 9.6% | +0.1 | — |
| Distance (all codes) | Runs | Wins | SR | vs sire | This horse |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 6f | 1,131 | 134 | 11.8% | +2.3 | 0 from 3 |
| 6f – 7f | 2,267 | 209 | 9.2% | −0.3 | 0 from 3 |
| 1m – 1m1f | 703 | 55 | 7.8% | −1.7 | 1 from 9 |
| 1m2f – 1m4f | 256 | 17 | 6.6% | −2.9 | 0 from 1 |
| 1m5f – 2m | 44 | 3 | 6.8% | −2.7 | — |
| 2m1f – 2m4f | 11 | 0 | 0% | −9.5 | — |
Flat and jumps together (all codes) · since Jan 2008 · as at 21 Oct 2026 · rows under 30 runs muted · win % is the measure, a record not a forecast
2 siblings in the archive, 1 winner — best of them Awtaad Prince (IRE) (2 wins).
The wins came over 6f–1m2f; the highest grade won is Class 4 (Awtaad Prince (IRE)).
| Produce | Runs | Wins | Win trips | Best grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Awtaad Prince (IRE) | 26 | 2 | 6f–1m2f | Class 4 |
| Keely (IRE) | 4 | 0 | — | — |
Record by conditions
| Going | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy | 5 | 1 | 20% | +3.00 |
| Good | 4 | 0 | 0% | −4.00 |
| Soft | 3 | 0 | 0% | −3.00 |
| Good to Firm | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Firm | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Good to Soft | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Class | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Class 6 | 3 | 0 | 0% | −3.00 |
| Course | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gowran Park | 3 | 1 | 33% | +5.00 |
| Bath | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Cork | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Curragh | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Chepstow | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Limerick | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Leopardstown | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Down Royal | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Killarney | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Roscommon | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Tipperary | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Distance | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1m – 1m1f | 9 | 1 | 11% | −1.00 |
| 6f – 7f | 3 | 0 | 0% | −3.00 |
| Under 6f | 3 | 0 | 0% | −3.00 |
| 1m2f – 1m4f | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Jockey | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rory Cleary | 10 | 1 | 10% | −2.00 |
| Callum Hutchinson | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Sean Levey | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Gabriella Hill | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Declan McDonogh | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Luke McAteer | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Headgear | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cheekpieces | 12 | 1 | 8% | −4.00 |
| None | 4 | 0 | 0% | −4.00 |
| Season | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 3 | 0 | 0% | −3.00 |
| 2024 | 5 | 0 | 0% | −5.00 |
| 2023 | 8 | 1 | 13% | +0.00 |
Splits include every sample, however small — muted rows are under 3 runs. A one-from-one record is a fact, not a trend: read the Runs column before the strike rate.
Form
| Date | Course | Race | Pos | Btn | Wgt | OR | Spd | KTB | Jockey | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 May 25+8d | Chepstow | Why Bet Elsewhere, David Lucas Bookmakers Handicap Held up in the pack throughout - unable to land a blow - finished well beaten in 13th | 13/14 | 5½ | 9-5 | 55 | 95C | 49C | Callum Hutchinson | 80/1 |
| 05 May 25+31d | Bath | Bring The Family August Car Festival Handicap Settled in the pack early - roused by the rider - dropped away from 2f out - eventually well beaten in 9th | 9/10 | 19 | 9-5 | 55 | 65C | 36C | Callum Hutchinson | 28/1 |
| 04 Apr 25+296d | Bath | On Course Values Online DragonBet Handicap Raced with plenty of enthusiasm early - hit the front before losing it 2f out - dropped away quickly after | 9/12 | 1¾ | 9-4 | 57 | 77A | 56A | Sean Levey | 40/1 |
| 12 Jun 24+9d | Limerick | Anglo Printers Providing Sustainable Printed Products Handicap (47-70) | 3/11 | 1¼ | 8-11 | 60 | 55A | 64A | Rory Cleary | 9/2 |
| 03 Jun 24+17d | Gowran Park | Sonix Entertainment Handicap (47-65) | 5/17 | nk | 9-9 | 57 | 69C | 81A | Rory Cleary | 16/1 |
| 17 May 24+9d | Leopardstown | GAIN The Advantage Series Handicap (50-70) (Div 2) | 4/16 | 1 | 8-8 | 58 | 89C | 64A | Rory Cleary | 12/1 |
| 08 May 24+12d | Gowran Park | Thank You To All Our Sponsors Apprentice Handicap (47-65) | 4/12 | 3¾ | 9-3 | 60 | 85A | 59A | Gabriella Hill | 11/2 |
| 26 Apr 24+178d | Cork | Gain The Advantage Series Handicap | 8/9 | 4½ | 9-4 | 61 | 100C | 51C | Declan McDonogh | 12/1 |
| 31 Oct 23+15d | Curragh | Tote.ie Nursery Handicap | 9/9 | 2½ | 8-7 | 61 | 33C | 44C | Rory Cleary | 15/2 |
| 16 Oct 23+38d | Gowran Park | Kilkenny Nursery Handicap | 1/9 | 8-12 | 55 | 85A | 71A | Rory Cleary | 7/1 | |
| 08 Sep 23+15d | Down Royal | Grant Thornton Nursery Handicap (47-70) | 3/9 | hd | 8-12 | 55 | 80A | 70A | Rory Cleary | 6/1 |
| 24 Aug 23+94d | Killarney | Irish Stallion Farms EBF Nursery Handicap | 4/8 | nk | 8-7 | 56 | 72A | 62A | Rory Cleary | 20/1 |
| 22 May 23+17d | Roscommon | Irish EBF Auction Series Maiden | 8/13 | hd | 8-8 | — | 69C | 57A | Rory Cleary | 40/1 |
| 05 May 23+15d | Cork | Irish EBF Auction Series Maiden | 11/13 | nk | 8-8 | — | 31C | 51A | Rory Cleary | 28/1 |
| 20 Apr 23+26d | Tipperary | Irish Stallion Farms EBF Race | 5/5 | 1¼ | 9-0 | — | 49C | 51B | Rory Cleary | 5/1 |
| 25 Mar 23 | Curragh | Alkumait Standing At Capital Stallions Irish European Breeders Fund Maiden | 8/11 | 1 | 8-13 | — | 61A | 48A | Luke McAteer | 10/1 |
Quick answers
- How many races has Expecto (IRE) won?
- Expecto (IRE) won 1 of 16 archived starts between 2023 and 2025, a strike rate of 6.3%. Placed 4 times in total (25% of starts).
- Who trained Expecto (IRE)?
- Expecto (IRE) was trained by Grace Harris on the most recent run on record, at Chepstow on 13 May 2025.
- Who is Expecto (IRE)'s sire?
- Expecto (IRE) is by Profitable (IRE) out of Showcard (GB), whose sire is Showcasing.
- What going does Expecto (IRE) prefer?
- Expecto (IRE) has the best record on heavy going: 1 win from 5 starts (20%). Only going bands with at least three archived starts are read, so this is a direction rather than a settled preference.
- What is Expecto (IRE)'s official rating?
- The most recent official rating on record is 55, from the run on 13 May 2025. The highest on record is 61.
- What is Expecto (IRE)'s sire's record?
- Profitable (IRE)'s progeny in our archive have won 9.5% of 4,412 runs since Jan 2008 (357 horses), Flat and jumps together.
- Who are Expecto (IRE)'s siblings?
- Out of Showcard (GB), Expecto (IRE) has 2 other produce in our archive, 1 of them a winner. Most wins: Awtaad Prince (IRE) (2). Highest grade won: Class 4 (Awtaad Prince (IRE)). The wins came over 6f–1m2f. As at Oct 2026.