What is Luke McAteer's strike rate?

Luke McAteer has won 130 of 1,758 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 7.4% (as at 5 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Luke McAteer do best at?

Tipperary by strike rate: 5 wins from 38 rides (13.2%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Which yard does Luke McAteer ride most for?

David Marnane, with 452 rides since 2022 — 26% of the total. That pairing has won 55 (12.2%).

Is Luke McAteer in form?

Too few rides in the last 14 days to read — 13 rides, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.

What is Luke McAteer's Fair A/E?

0.99, from 1,757 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Jockey profile

Luke McAteer

1,758 rides in the last 5 seasons · 689 individual horses

As at 5 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last ride yesterday 100% of rides on the flat

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2017→)

from 1 Jan 2022

130–1,758

Wins / Runs

7.4%

Strike rate

n=1,758

394 (22%)

Placed

0.99

Fair A/E

n=1,757 · 0.80 incl. margin

−556.45

£1 level stake

n=1,758 at SP · −31.7%

£2.60m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

5.7%

KTB Rider Profile

Rides around 350 times a season, almost all on the flat, winning on 7% of them — level with the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.99). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 13% (114 rides).

Deterministic profile computed from 1,758 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 5 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Feb–Mar 27.9% when favourite David Marnane: 12.2% from 452 LTO winners: 13.2% Claiming: 8.5% Rides the favourite in 6% of races

The read

Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 13.2% (n=114, Fair A/E 1.09), but in Group and Graded company the record reads poorly at 2.9% (n=68, Fair A/E 0.44). The market has consistently overbet horses returning fresh after 61+ days: 4.1% strike, Fair A/E 0.68 and −205.42 to a £1 stake over 293 rides — those runners underperform what the price implies. David Marnane supplies 26% of the rides and edges the rider's average (12.2% vs 7.4%, A/E 1.19) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The record reads poorly on Good to Firm going — 1.7% over 58 rides, 5.7pts below the baseline. 3 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the rider has landed: the Irish Stallion Farms EBF Petingo Handicap at Leopardstown (IRE) (Sep 2026, £90,000). The standout partner of the record: Amemri (GB) — 8 wins from 31 rides together. Seasonally, the rider fires Feb–Mar.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 7.4% baseline

First ride on the horse · first captured pairing

5%−2.4

n=646 · A/E 1.03 · £1 −285.09

Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win

13.2%+5.8

n=114 · A/E 1.09 · £1 −23.93

Fresh horses · 61+ days off

4.1%−3.3

n=293 · A/E 0.68 · £1 −205.42

When favourite

27.9%

n=104 · A/E 1.04 · £1 −24.69

Claiming rides · riding with a claim

8.5%+1.1

n=331 · A/E 1.13 · £1 −68.10

Big fields · 14+ runners

6.7%−0.7

n=849 · A/E 1.11 · £1 −180.40

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

2.9%−4.5

n=68 · A/E 0.44 · £1 −22.50

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 7.4% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

With C&D winners 13.3% vs 7.4% · n=180

With David Marnane 12.2% vs 7.4% · n=452

With Barry J Fitzgerald 14.3% vs 7.4% · n=63

On last-time-out winners 13.2% vs 7.4% · n=114

With first-time headgear 1.9% vs 7.4% · n=106

On Good to Firm going 1.7% vs 7.4% · n=58

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Good 550 34 6.2% −231.56

Standard (AW) 453 50 11% −30.04

Soft 447 22 4.9% −183.55

Heavy 141 13 9.2% −49.55

Good to Soft 109 10 9.2% −10.75

Good to Firm 58 1 1.7% −51.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Dundalk (AW) 445 49 11% −31.04

Curragh 253 12 4.7% −51.00

Leopardstown 130 12 9.2% −19.22

Gowran Park 123 6 4.9% −89.30

Cork 104 8 7.7% −51.17

Naas 97 9 9.3% −17.10

Navan 78 4 5.1% −62.38

Galway 72 4 5.6% +33.00

Limerick 60 2 3.3% −45.50

Roscommon 59 2 3.4% −36.50

Fairyhouse 52 3 5.8% −35.50

Killarney 47 2 4.3% −42.47

Bellewstown 45 1 2.2% −41.00

Tipperary 38 5 13.2% +4.00

Down Royal 35 4 11.4% +9.73

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 1 68 2 2.9% −22.50

Class 6 4 0 0% −4.00

Class 2 3 0 0% −3.00

Class 3 2 0 0% −2.00

Class 4 2 0 0% −2.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 129 30 23.3% 0.93 −43.19

2nd–3rd fav 272 46 16.9% 1.13 −21.26

4th–6th fav 476 30 6.3% 0.85 −190.00

7th+ in betting 881 24 2.7% 1.04 −302.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Amemri (GB) 31 8 11 14 Jul 26

Jered Maddox (GB) 23 6 8 4 May 26

Tango Flare (IRE) 20 4 8 10 Oct 26

Tokenomics (FR) 18 5 9 6 Aug 26

Mythical Rock (IRE) 17 0 8 5 Dec 25

Jazzy Dancer (IRE) 15 1 3 16 Oct 26

Aviatrice (IRE) 15 3 10 12 Sep 26

East Hampton (GB) 15 2 5 21 Aug 26

Allsortz (IRE) 14 2 6 10 Oct 26

Rock Of Ireland (IRE) 14 1 4 21 Sep 26

Sir Yoshi (IRE) 13 1 6 6 Sep 25

Jakajaro (IRE) 13 2 4 29 Sep 24

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 689 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 6 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample

1 from 13

Only 13 rides in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

By month

strike by month, 5 seasons

JFMAMJJASOND

718156975575913

A flat rider: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first

Main yardDavid Marnane

26% of all rides
12.2% SR · A/E 1.19

TrainerRWSR£1

David Marnane 452 55 12.2% −47.10

James M Barrett 119 6 5% −46.00

J S Bolger 109 12 11% −34.93

Paul W Flynn 107 3 2.8% −66.00

Patrick T Foley 86 7 8.1% +4.23

Barry J Fitzgerald 63 9 14.3% +5.25

A. McCann 54 2 3.7% −35.00

P J F Murphy 50 3 6% −22.50

Andrew Kinirons 50 6 12% +44.50

Patrick J McKenna 40 3 7.5% +3.00

Rory Anthony Devine 37 3 8.1% +10.00

Jack W Davison 36 2 5.6% −17.50

Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2017→

193

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£3.26m

Prize money

2025

Best season · 34 wins

Immutable (IRE) — Irish Stallion Farms EBF Petingo Handicap Leopardstown (IRE) · Sep 2026

£90,000

Tango Flare (IRE) — Irish Stallion Farms EBF Bold Lad Sprint Handicap (Premier Handicap) Curragh · Sep 2025

£88,500

Slieve Binnian (IRE) — Dubai Duty Free Derby Festival Handicap (Premier Handicap) Curragh · Jun 2025

£59,000

Notable horses

Amemri (GB) Jered Maddox (GB) Tokenomics (FR) Tango Flare (IRE) Aviatrice (IRE) Hidden Land (USA)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Elzaam (AUS) 7.6% · 5–66

Progeny have won 9.2% of 4,528 runs since 2016 (374 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 4.9% from 326.

Bated Breath (GB) 7.7% · 3–39

Progeny have won 10.8% of 8,169 runs since 2016 (670 horses). Weakest on Soft going: 7.6% from 855.

Gleneagles (IRE) 5.4% · 2–37

Progeny have won 11.4% of 4,571 runs since 2019 (447 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 17.3% from 283.

Time Test (GB) 21.6% · 8–37

Progeny have won 11% of 3,153 runs since 2021 (337 horses). Weakest on Soft going: 6.9% from 334. Strongest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 14.7% from 320.

Kodi Bear (IRE) 5.7% · 2–35

Progeny have won 10.3% of 3,983 runs since 2020 (391 horses). Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 7.3% from 260.

Rock Of Gibraltar (IRE) 2.9% · 1–34

Progeny have won 9.8% of 11,566 runs since 2008 (872 horses).

Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 5 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 2,407 · newest first

The latest 50 of 2,407 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 1 June 2017 to 4 November 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

04 Nov 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Annie Tips (IRE)T: James Dowling Bet On The Best Night Out At Dundalk Stadium Nursery Handicap7f · Standard · 7 ran 5th 40/1

04 Nov 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Jallaaf (IRE)T: A. McCann Christmas Party Nights At Dundalk Stadium Claiming Race6f · Standard · 8 ran 7th 50/1

01 Nov 26 Curragh (IRE) Azure Sioux (IRE)T: Patrick T Foley Velo Coffee At The Curragh Maiden12f · Yielding · 19 ran 18th 200/1

01 Nov 26 Curragh (IRE) Uncle Goalie (IRE)T: Rory Anthony Devine Keadeen Hotel Premier Handicap8f · Yielding To Soft · 21 ran 4th 6/1J

01 Nov 26 Curragh (IRE) Thru And Thru (IRE)T: Rory Anthony Devine Isuzu Ireland Handicap7f · Yielding To Soft · 25 ran 1st 12/1

01 Nov 26 Curragh (IRE) One Point Five (IRE)T: Eoin Doyle Irish EBF Maiden (Smullen Series)8f · Yielding To Soft · 23 ran 14th 300/1

29 Oct 26 Punchestown (IRE) Girl Bear (IRE)T: Jack Foley See You At The GR1 Double Header – 21 & 22 November Handicap (Div II)7f · Yielding · 11 ran 9th 16/1

29 Oct 26 Punchestown (IRE) Think About It (IRE)T: Thomas Patrick McGettigan See You At The GR1 Double Header 21 & 22 November Handicap (0-60) (Div 1)7f · Yielding · 12 ran 11th 50/1

29 Oct 26 Punchestown (IRE) Dawnmore (IRE)T: J S Bolger Win A Trip To Lapland At Punchestown On Sun 22 November Maiden7f · Yielding · 11 ran 4th 17/2

29 Oct 26 Punchestown (IRE) Lan De Ghaire (IRE)T: J S Bolger Irish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Maiden8f · Yielding · 8 ran 6th 28/1

28 Oct 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Chicago Caray (GB)T: J. P. Murtagh Irish Stallion Farms EBF Maiden7f · Standard · 11 ran 4th 40/1

28 Oct 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Master Garvey (IRE)T: Joseph Anthony Murray Dundalk Stadium Optional Claiming Race8f · Standard · 11 ran 9th 28/1

23 Oct 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Mount Pinatubo (IRE)T: Jack Foley Irish EBF Median Sires Series Maiden (Smullen Series)8f · Standard · 14 ran 12th 18/1

21 Oct 26 Navan (IRE) Parish Express (IRE)T: J S Bolger Navan Racecourse Handicap14f · Yielding · 23 ran 22nd 50/1

21 Oct 26 Navan (IRE) Teofil (IRE)T: J S Bolger WTW Willis Towers Watson Maiden14f · Yielding · 12 ran 1st 8/13F

21 Oct 26 Navan (IRE) Oracle Of Delphi (IRE)T: A Oliver Kilberry Fillies Maiden7f · Yielding · 13 ran 3rd 66/1

21 Oct 26 Navan (IRE) Camhaoir (IRE)T: Mark Michael McNiff Irish Stallion Farms EBF Median Auction Maiden6f · Yielding · 14 ran 6th 80/1

20 Oct 26 Curragh (IRE) Admired Beauty (IRE)T: J S Bolger Staffordstown Stud Stakes (Group 3)Class 1 · 8f · Yielding · 11 ran 8th 16/1

20 Oct 26 Curragh (IRE) Ballintogher (IRE)T: P J F Murphy Autumn Racing With 1xBet.ie At The Curragh Handicap6f · Yielding · 17 ran 14th 33/1

20 Oct 26 Curragh (IRE) Elzante (IRE)T: C Byrnes 1xBet.ie Supporting October Racing Irish EBF Maiden6f · Yielding · 13 ran 10th 100/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this rider’s mounts since 9 Oct 2026: the KTB Selection in 3 runs (won 0, 1 did not run) · top-rated on KTB Rating in 2 runs (won 1) · fastest on KTB Speed in 4 runs (won 0) · to 29 Oct 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is Luke McAteer's strike rate?: Luke McAteer has won 130 of 1,758 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 7.4% (as at 5 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Luke McAteer do best at?: Tipperary by strike rate: 5 wins from 38 rides (13.2%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Which yard does Luke McAteer ride most for?: David Marnane, with 452 rides since 2022 — 26% of the total. That pairing has won 55 (12.2%).
Is Luke McAteer in form?: Too few rides in the last 14 days to read — 13 rides, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Luke McAteer's Fair A/E?: 0.99, from 1,757 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.