What is Declan McDonogh's strike rate?

Declan McDonogh has won 204 of 2,247 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 9.1% (as at 3 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Declan McDonogh do best at?

Killarney by strike rate: 10 wins from 57 rides (17.5%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Which yard does Declan McDonogh ride most for?

Joseph Patrick O'Brien, with 977 rides since 2022 — 43% of the total. That pairing has won 105 (10.7%).

Is Declan McDonogh in form?

Too few rides in the last 14 days to read — 10 rides, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.

What is Declan McDonogh's Fair A/E?

0.95, from 2,247 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Jockey profile

Declan McDonogh

2,247 rides in the last 5 seasons · 1,187 individual horses

As at 3 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last ride 2 days ago 100% of rides on the flat

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

from 1 Jan 2022

204–2,247

Wins / Runs

9.1%

Strike rate

n=2,247

617 (28%)

Placed

0.95

Fair A/E

n=2,247 · 0.77 incl. margin

−743.81

£1 level stake

n=2,247 at SP · −33.1%

£5.44m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

KTB Rider Profile

Rides around 450 times a season, almost all on the flat, winning on 9% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.95). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 14% (199 rides). Rides mostly for Joseph Patrick O'Brien — 43% of rides in the window.

Deterministic profile computed from 2,247 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 3 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Dec–Mar Fresh horses: 9.2% 34.3% when favourite Joseph Patrick O'Brien: 10.7% from 977 LTO winners: 14.1% Rides the favourite in 8% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Killarney (17.5%, n=57), Roscommon (14.1%, n=71) and Tipperary (13.8%, n=65) — all clear of the rider's 9.1% baseline. It is weakest at Naas (4.9% over 144 rides) — the widest gap in the record. Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 14.1% (n=199, Fair A/E 1.06). The market has consistently overbet in Group and Graded company the record: 6.6% strike, Fair A/E 0.76 and −74.09 to a £1 stake over 316 rides — those runners underperform what the price implies. Joseph Patrick O'Brien supplies 43% of the rides and matches the rider's average almost exactly (10.7%, A/E 0.90). 132 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the rider has landed: the Shelbourne Hotel Goffs Million at Curragh (Sep 2006, £985,000). The standout partner of the record: Mustameet (USA) — 7 wins from 19 rides together. Seasonally, the rider fires Dec–Mar.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 9.1% baseline

First ride on the horse · first captured pairing

7.4%−1.7

n=1,111 · A/E 0.90 · £1 −472.25

Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win

14.1%+5.0

n=199 · A/E 1.06 · £1 −30.53

Fresh horses · 61+ days off

9.2%+0.1

n=382 · A/E 1.05 · £1 −93.79

When favourite

34.3%

n=172 · A/E 1.11 · £1 −11.78

Big fields · 14+ runners

6.8%−2.3

n=913 · A/E 0.94 · £1 −436.70

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

6.6%−2.5

n=316 · A/E 0.76 · £1 −74.09

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 9.1% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

At Killarney 17.5% vs 9.1% · n=57

With W McCreery 2.1% vs 9.1% · n=47

On last-time-out winners 14.1% vs 9.1% · n=199

At Roscommon 14.1% vs 9.1% · n=71

At Naas 4.9% vs 9.1% · n=144

At Tipperary 13.8% vs 9.1% · n=65

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Good 791 67 8.5% −236.07

Soft 578 48 8.3% −230.15

Standard (AW) 459 48 10.5% −126.84

Good to Soft 181 14 7.7% −95.99

Heavy 162 19 11.7% −24.34

Good to Firm 76 8 10.5% −30.42

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Dundalk (AW) 457 48 10.5% −124.84

Curragh 379 24 6.3% −149.92

Leopardstown 218 18 8.3% −82.09

Gowran Park 161 13 8.1% −100.41

Naas 144 7 4.9% −33.51

Cork 119 7 5.9% −36.67

Navan 119 7 5.9% −71.54

Galway 100 11 11% −11.75

Roscommon 71 10 14.1% −16.69

Tipperary 65 9 13.8% −4.56

Down Royal 59 8 13.6% +1.55

Limerick 59 8 13.6% −3.86

Killarney 57 10 17.5% +7.39

Fairyhouse 56 5 8.9% −34.42

Listowel 44 6 13.6% −19.25

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 1 316 21 6.6% −74.09

Class 2 12 0 0% −12.00

Class 3 2 1 50% +6.50

Class 4 1 1 100% +10.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 206 62 30.1% 1.03 −33.28

2nd–3rd fav 491 72 14.7% 0.91 −148.53

4th–6th fav 659 44 6.7% 0.89 −187.00

7th+ in betting 891 26 2.9% 0.94 −375.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Neo Smart (IRE) 16 2 6 15 Sep 26

Rio Largo (IRE) 14 2 5 20 Jun 24

Punk Poet (IRE) 13 2 4 6 Mar 26

Boadicea Belle (IRE) 11 1 3 15 Aug 24

Mads Black Eights (IRE) 11 1 2 26 Apr 24

Trustyourinstinct (IRE) 10 4 6 13 Sep 26

Clever And Classy (IRE) 10 1 4 16 Oct 25

Apache Outlaw (IRE) 9 2 4 5 Dec 25

Rattletheonionbag (IRE) 9 0 2 11 Jun 25

Dawn Rising (IRE) 8 0 2 12 Sep 26

Princess Child (FR) 8 0 6 24 May 26

Snapraeterea (IRE) 8 1 3 22 Oct 23

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 1,187 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 5 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample

0 from 10

Only 10 rides in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

By month

strike by month, 5 seasons

JFMAMJJASOND

301412781011678711

A flat rider: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first

Main yardJoseph Patrick O'Brien

43% of all rides
10.7% SR · A/E 0.90

TrainerRWSR£1

Joseph Patrick O'Brien 977 105 10.7% −294.44

J S Bolger 146 14 9.6% −16.42

Kieran P Cotter 99 12 12.1% +4.16

Matthew J Smith 72 8 11.1% +22.33

Gordon Elliott 60 7 11.7% −3.42

A P O'Brien 56 5 8.9% −27.93

Luke Comer 54 6 11.1% +12.50

W McCreery 47 1 2.1% −40.00

Edward Lynam 43 4 9.3% −6.17

Eddie & Patrick Harty 40 3 7.5% −26.17

David Marnane 31 2 6.5% −6.50

Adrian McGuinness 30 2 6.7% −18.67

Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→

1,118

Archived wins

132

Pattern / graded wins

£27.4m

Prize money

2006

Best season · 93 wins

In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Miss Beatrix (IRE) — Shelbourne Hotel Goffs Million Curragh · Sep 2006

£985,000

Maarek (GB) — Qatar Prix de l'Abbaye de Longchamp (2yo+) (Turf) Longchamp (FR) · Oct 2013 · Group 1

£162,594

Kingsfort (USA) — Ladbrokes.com Vincent O'brien National Stakes (group 1) Curragh · Sep 2009 · Group 1

£150,100

Notable horses

Mustameet (USA) Miracle Ridge (IRE) Ucanchoose (IRE) Bubbly Bellini (IRE) Creggs Pipes (IRE) An Saighdiur (IRE)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Churchill (IRE) 9.1% · 7–77

Progeny have won 11% of 4,833 runs since 2021 (462 horses).

Australia (GB) 8.3% · 6–72

Progeny have won 11.1% of 5,670 runs since 2018 (566 horses). Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 6.5% from 108.

Starspangledbanner (AUS) 5.9% · 3–51

Progeny have won 11.1% of 7,201 runs since 2014 (664 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 14.6% from 1,195.

Camelot (GB) 16% · 8–50

Progeny have won 11.7% of 7,717 runs since 2017 (758 horses).

Wootton Bassett (GB) 8% · 4–50

Progeny have won 13% of 5,687 runs since 2015 (790 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 16% from 162.

Zoffany (IRE) 4.1% · 2–49

Progeny have won 9.9% of 10,775 runs since 2015 (799 horses).

Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 3 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 10,662 · newest first

The latest 50 of 10,662 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 20 March 2005 to 1 November 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

01 Nov 26 Curragh (IRE) Golden Splendour (GB)T: Joseph Patrick O'Brien QuinnBet Finale Stakes (Listed)Class 1 · 12f · Yielding · 12 ran 8th 10/1

01 Nov 26 Curragh (IRE) Iamimmaculate (IRE)T: G. O'Leary Keadeen Hotel Premier Handicap8f · Yielding To Soft · 21 ran 6th 12/1

01 Nov 26 Curragh (IRE) Sky Captain (IRE)T: Joseph Patrick O'Brien QuinnBet Loughbrown Stakes (Group 3)Class 1 · 16.5f · Yielding · 11 ran 6th 9/1

01 Nov 26 Curragh (IRE) Real Force (GB)T: G. O'Leary Isuzu Ireland Handicap7f · Yielding To Soft · 25 ran 10th 33/1

01 Nov 26 Curragh (IRE) Erico (GER)T: Joseph Patrick O'Brien Irish EBF Maiden (Smullen Series)8f · Yielding To Soft · 23 ran 3rd 33/1

31 Oct 26 Newmarket So Lovely (USA)T: Aidan O'Brien British Stallion Studs Ebf Montrose Fillies' Stakes (Listed Race)Class 1 · 8f · Good To Soft · 11 ran 2nd 13/2

31 Oct 26 Newmarket Accumulation (IRE)T: Aidan O'Brien Hurworth Blooodstock Horris Hill Stakes (Group 3)Class 1 · 7f · Good To Soft · 15 ran 10th 7/1

29 Oct 26 Punchestown (IRE) Miss Americana (GB)T: Charles O'Brien See You At The GR1 Double Header – 21 & 22 November Handicap (Div II)7f · Yielding · 11 ran 2nd 15/2

29 Oct 26 Punchestown (IRE) Abiding Memory (IRE)T: G. O'Leary Premiere Weekend Two-Day Ticket Just €35 Maiden7f · Yielding · 11 ran 5th 16/1

29 Oct 26 Punchestown (IRE) Oklahoma (USA)T: Aidan O'Brien Win A Trip To Lapland At Punchestown On Sun 22 November Maiden7f · Yielding · 11 ran 5th 9/4

09 Oct 26 Newmarket Dancing Destiny (IRE)T: Joseph Patrick O'Brien Bet365 Fillies' Mile (Group 1)Class 1 · 8f · Good · 8 ran 6th 20/1

09 Oct 26 Newmarket Carry The Flag (IRE)T: Aidan O'Brien Newmarket Academy Godolphin Beacon Project Cornwallis Stakes (Group 3)Class 1 · 5f · Good · 13 ran 4th 20/1

08 Oct 26 Thurles (IRE) Ah Sure Look (IRE)T: Martin Hassett Irish EBF Auction Series Maiden (Smullen Series)8.5f · Good To Yielding · 14 ran 8th 125/1

08 Oct 26 Thurles (IRE) Kathy M (USA)T: Joseph Patrick O'Brien Irish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Maiden8.5f · Good To Yielding · 10 ran 5th 33/1

07 Oct 26 Navan (IRE) Ballaghkeen (IRE)T: J S Bolger Racing Again 21st October Handicap (Div II)10f · Yielding · 16 ran 1st 14/1

07 Oct 26 Navan (IRE) Sanctijude (IRE)T: W. McCreery Irish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Handicap8f · Yielding · 9 ran 3rd 9/1

07 Oct 26 Navan (IRE) Magna Cum Laude (USA)T: Aidan O'Brien Navan Racecourse Welcomes Our Local Community Maiden8f · Yielding · 9 ran 5th 40/1

07 Oct 26 Navan (IRE) Coincidental Glory (IRE)T: Adrian McGuinness Book Your Discounted Tickets On NavanRacecourse.ie Handicap6f · Yielding · 22 ran 2nd 8/1

07 Oct 26 Navan (IRE) Tribal Belle (IRE)T: G. O'Leary Buy Now & Save With The Real Deal Bundle Maiden6f · Yielding · 13 ran 7th 125/1

05 Oct 26 Killarney (IRE) Cladach (IRE)T: Joseph Patrick O'Brien Carry Out Off-Licence Handicap8f · Soft · 10 ran 3rd 9/4

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this rider’s mounts since 1 Nov 2026: top-rated on KTB Rating in 1 run (won 0) · to 1 Nov 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is Declan McDonogh's strike rate?: Declan McDonogh has won 204 of 2,247 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 9.1% (as at 3 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Declan McDonogh do best at?: Killarney by strike rate: 10 wins from 57 rides (17.5%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Which yard does Declan McDonogh ride most for?: Joseph Patrick O'Brien, with 977 rides since 2022 — 43% of the total. That pairing has won 105 (10.7%).
Is Declan McDonogh in form?: Too few rides in the last 14 days to read — 10 rides, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Declan McDonogh's Fair A/E?: 0.95, from 2,247 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.