Follow Your Luck (IRE)
Follow Your Luck is a gelding who has won three of five starts on turf. All his wins have come over 2m1f – 2m4f, two of them at Sedgefield in Class 4 races on good to soft ground in Feb 2026 and one in a Class 3 handicap at Perth on good ground in Sep 2026. He ran prominently when finishing second of six in a Class 2 novices’ chase at Cheltenham in Oct 2026 off an official rating of 123. He usually races prominently.
- 3–5Wins / Runs
- 60%Strike rate
- 4 (80%)Placed
- +3.42£1 level staken=5 at SP
- 1.78Fair A/E n=5 · 1.62 incl. margin
- 124Highest OR
- 23dBetween runs (median)longest 177 d
A/E compares actual wins with what starting prices implied. "Fair" strips the bookmaker margin from the expectation, so favourites and longshots are judged on the same footing — figures near 1.00 mean the market priced this horse about right.
KTB Speed and Rating
Best recent Speed 127
How fast the horse ran, as points against the day-corrected standard time for its course and distance: 100 is the median GB Class 4 handicap winner on that code; one point is 0.1% of the standard time. A, B or C is how much the day's card could tell us, not how good the run was. What this means →
| Going | Runs | Best | Median | Since 4 Nov 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Good to Soft | 3 | 145C | 127 | 3 runs · 145 / 127 |
| Good | 2 | 77C | 75.5 | 2 runs · 77 / 75.5 |
| Distance | Runs | Best | Median | Since 4 Nov 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2m1f – 2m4f | 4 | 145C | 102 | 4 runs · 145 / 102 |
| Over 3m | 1 | — | — | 1 run · — |
KTB Speed v1 · batch 15 Sep 2026 · GB & Irish racing only · 5 figures from 5 runs · as at 1 Nov 2026 · a record, not a forecast
Both figures are KTB's own, computed from the archive; no vendor rating enters either. Every run's figure is on its form line below with its grade. Grades measure how much the archive could see, never the merit of the run.
Run style from 5 analysed runs since Feb 2026
- Prominent 3 (60%) · 1 win
- Led 2 (40%) · 2 wins
Pedigree intelligence
Progeny in our archive have won 10.8% of 8,871 runs since Sep 2014 (786 horses).
Strongest on good to firm going: 15.1% from 119.
| Going | Runs | Wins | SR | vs sire | This horse |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Good to Firm | 119 | 18 | 15.1% | +4.3 | — |
| Good | 2,973 | 378 | 12.7% | +1.9 | 1 from 2 |
| Good to Soft | 1,816 | 179 | 9.9% | −0.9 | 2 from 3 |
| Soft | 2,739 | 259 | 9.5% | −1.3 | — |
| Heavy | 1,214 | 124 | 10.2% | −0.6 | — |
| Standard (AW) | 10 | 1 | 10% | −0.8 | — |
| Distance (all codes) | Runs | Wins | SR | vs sire | This horse |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1m – 1m1f | 5 | 0 | 0% | −10.8 | — |
| 1m2f – 1m4f | 16 | 0 | 0% | −10.8 | — |
| 1m5f – 2m | 2,047 | 199 | 9.7% | −1.1 | — |
| 2m1f – 2m4f | 3,209 | 324 | 10.1% | −0.7 | 3 from 4 |
| 2m5f – 3m | 2,825 | 341 | 12.1% | +1.3 | — |
| Over 3m | 769 | 95 | 12.4% | +1.6 | 0 from 1 |
Flat and jumps together (all codes) · since Sep 2014 · as at 3 Nov 2026 · rows under 30 runs muted · win % is the measure, a record not a forecast
1 sibling in the archive, 1 winner — best of them Intent Approach (IRE) (1 win).
The wins came over 2m6f.
| Produce | Runs | Wins | Win trips | Best grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Intent Approach (IRE) | 12 | 1 | 2m6f | — |
Record by conditions
| Going | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Good to Soft | 3 | 2 | 67% | +3.75 |
| Good | 2 | 1 | 50% | −0.33 |
| Class | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Class 3 | 2 | 1 | 50% | −0.33 |
| Class 4 | 2 | 2 | 100% | +4.75 |
| Class 2 | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Course | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Perth | 2 | 1 | 50% | −0.33 |
| Sedgefield | 2 | 2 | 100% | +4.75 |
| Cheltenham | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Distance | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2m1f – 2m4f | 4 | 3 | 75% | +4.42 |
| Over 3m | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Type | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase | 3 | 1 | 33% | −1.33 |
| Hurdle | 2 | 2 | 100% | +4.75 |
Splits include every sample, however small — muted rows are under 3 runs. A one-from-one record is a fact, not a trend: read the Runs column before the strike rate.
Form
| Date | Course | Race | Pos | Btn | Wgt | OR | Spd | KTB | Jockey | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 · 5 runs | ||||||||||
| 24 Oct 26+47d | Cheltenham | William Hill Price Boosts 'chasing Excellence' Novices' Steeple Chase (gbb Race) Prominent on inner rail - lay second from the 15th until 3 out - left behind and clipped 2 out - regained runner-up spot and stayed on on the run-in without troubling winner | 2/6 | 14 | 11-7 | 123 | 61A | 136B | Brian Hughes | 18/1 |
| 07 Sep 26+23d | Perth | Auto Services Perth Supporting Dundee Bairns Novices' Limited Handicap Steeple Chase (GBB Race) Set the pace early - drifted left over a couple of obstacles - lost the advantage 4 out - pushed along 3 out and battled on - two lengths adrift over the final fence then drifted right on the run-in but rallied to edge back in front close home | 1/2 | 11-0 | 122 | 74C | 122C | Brian Hughes | 4/6F | |
| 15 Aug 26+177d | Perth | QuinnBet Novices' Limited Handicap Steeple Chase (GBB Race) Sat close to the front pair - jumped awkwardly 4 out - pushed along after and kept on without finding extra late | 3/5 | 6 | 11-6 | 124 | 77C | 128B | Brian Hughes | 7/2 |
| 19 Feb 26+15d | Sedgefield | Fairlight Studio Welcomes The Spring Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race) Set the pace from the off - challenged for a stride two out then set alight - found more close home to prevail | 1/4 | 11-12 | — | 145C | 127B | Brian Hughes | 1/4F | |
| 04 Feb 26 | Sedgefield | Paxtons Serving Farmers Since 1853 Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race) Settled handy early on - improved to challenge before the 6th and joined the front by the 7th - moving with ease into the lead 2 out - kicked clear approaching the last - stayed on strongly to score | 1/10 | 11-6 | — | 127B | 127A | Brian Hughes | 9/2 | |
Quick answers
- How many races has Follow Your Luck won?
- Follow Your Luck (IRE) won 3 of 5 archived starts in 2026, a strike rate of 60%. Placed 4 times in total (80% of starts).
- Who trains Follow Your Luck?
- Follow Your Luck (IRE) is trained by Patrick Neville, who saddled the horse on its most recent run on 24 October 2026.
- Who is Follow Your Luck's sire?
- Follow Your Luck (IRE) is by Mahler (GB) out of Lenora (IRE), whose sire is Presenting.
- What going does Follow Your Luck prefer?
- Follow Your Luck (IRE) has the best record on good to soft going: 2 wins from 3 starts (66.7%). Only going bands with at least three archived starts are read, so this is a direction rather than a settled preference.
- What is Follow Your Luck's official rating?
- The most recent official rating on record is 123, from the run on 24 October 2026. The highest on record is 124.
- What is Follow Your Luck's sire's record?
- Mahler (GB)'s progeny in our archive have won 10.8% of 8,871 runs since Sep 2014 (786 horses), Flat and jumps together. Strongest on good to firm going: 15.1% from 119.
- Who are Follow Your Luck's siblings?
- Out of Lenora (IRE), Follow Your Luck (IRE) has 1 other produce in our archive, 1 of them a winner. Most wins: Intent Approach (IRE) (1). The wins came over 2m6f. As at Nov 2026.