Ihtimal (IRE)
Ihtimal (IRE) is 2 from 8, including a Group 2 win. The biggest win we hold: the Barrett Steel May Hill Stakes at Doncaster (Sep 2013). Hasn't won since Sep 2013. Last raced off a career-high mark of 110.
- 2–8Wins / Runs
- 25%Strike rate
- 7 (87.5%)Placed
- −2.15£1 level staken=8 at SP
- 1.16Fair A/E n=8 · 1.01 incl. margin
- 110Highest OR
- 54dAvg between runs
A/E compares actual wins with what starting prices implied. "Fair" strips the bookmaker margin from the expectation, so favourites and longshots are judged on the same footing — figures near 1.00 mean the market priced this horse about right.
KTB Speed and Rating
No KTB Speed figures for this horse. The engine scores GB and Irish racing from Oct 2016; runs elsewhere, or earlier, have no figure.
KTB Speed v1 · batch 15 Sep 2026 · GB & Irish racing only · 0 figures from 0 runs · a record, not a forecast
Both figures are KTB's own, computed from the archive; no vendor rating enters either. Every run's figure is on its form line below with its grade. Grades measure how much the archive could see, never the merit of the run.
Run style is derived from in-running commentary, which our data provider does not supply for this horse's races.
Pedigree intelligence
Progeny in our archive have won 14.8% of 10,411 runs since Jan 2008 (1,008 horses).
Weakest on soft going: 11.7% from 1,287. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 9.3% from 475.
| Going | Runs | Wins | SR | vs sire | This horse |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Firm | 57 | 11 | 19.3% | +4.5 | — |
| Good to Firm | 1,981 | 306 | 15.4% | +0.6 | 1 from 6 |
| Good | 2,387 | 335 | 14% | −0.8 | 0 from 1 |
| Good to Soft | 1,013 | 124 | 12.2% | −2.6 | 1 from 1 |
| Soft | 1,287 | 151 | 11.7% | −3.1 | — |
| Heavy | 370 | 45 | 12.2% | −2.6 | — |
| Standard (AW) | 3,315 | 564 | 17% | +2.2 | — |
| Distance (all codes) | Runs | Wins | SR | vs sire | This horse |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 6f | 583 | 87 | 14.9% | +0.1 | — |
| 6f – 7f | 4,073 | 593 | 14.6% | −0.2 | 1 from 4 |
| 1m – 1m1f | 2,985 | 476 | 15.9% | +1.1 | 1 from 3 |
| 1m2f – 1m4f | 2,073 | 313 | 15.1% | +0.3 | 0 from 1 |
| 1m5f – 2m | 475 | 44 | 9.3% | −5.5 | — |
| 2m1f – 2m4f | 180 | 21 | 11.7% | −3.1 | — |
| 2m5f – 3m | 38 | 2 | 5.3% | −9.5 | — |
| Over 3m | 4 | 0 | 0% | −14.8 | — |
Flat and jumps together (all codes) · since Jan 2008 · as at 21 Oct 2026 · rows under 30 runs muted · win % is the measure, a record not a forecast
7 siblings in the archive, 4 winners — best of them Always Smile (IRE) (4 wins).
The wins came over 6f–1m½f; the highest grade won is Group 1 (Thunder Snow (IRE)).
| Produce | Runs | Wins | Win trips | Best grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Always Smile (IRE) | 9 | 4 | 6f–1m½f | Listed |
| Thunder Snow (IRE) | 12 | 3 | 6f–1m | Group 1 |
| First Victory (IRE) | 4 | 2 | 7f | Group 3 |
| Eastern World (IRE) | 9 | 1 | 1m | Class 5 |
| Winter Lightning (IRE) | 4 | 0 | — | — |
| Oriental World (IRE) | 1 | 0 | — | — |
| Sasakia (IRE) | 4 | 0 | — | — |
Record by conditions
| Going | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Good to Firm | 6 | 1 | 17% | −2.25 |
| Good | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Good to Soft | 1 | 1 | 100% | +1.10 |
| Class | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Class 1 | 6 | 2 | 33% | −0.15 |
| Class 4 | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Class 5 | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Course | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newmarket | 4 | 1 | 25% | −0.25 |
| Epsom Downs | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Doncaster | 1 | 1 | 100% | +1.10 |
| Ascot | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Goodwood | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Distance | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6f – 7f | 4 | 1 | 25% | −0.25 |
| 1m – 1m1f | 3 | 1 | 33% | −0.90 |
| 1m2f – 1m4f | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Jockey | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Silvestre De Sousa | 6 | 1 | 17% | −3.90 |
| Kieren Fallon | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| William Buick | 1 | 1 | 100% | +2.75 |
| Season | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| 2013 | 6 | 2 | 33% | −0.15 |
Splits include every sample, however small — muted rows are under 3 runs. A one-from-one record is a fact, not a trend: read the Runs column before the strike rate.
Form
Quick answers
- How many races has Ihtimal (IRE) won?
- Ihtimal (IRE) won 2 of 8 archived starts between 2013 and 2014, a strike rate of 25%. Placed 7 times in total (87.5% of starts).
- Who trained Ihtimal (IRE)?
- Ihtimal (IRE) was trained by Saeed bin Suroor on the most recent run on record, at Epsom Downs on 6 June 2014.
- Who is Ihtimal (IRE)'s sire?
- Ihtimal (IRE) is by Shamardal (USA) out of Eastern Joy (GB), whose sire is Dubai Destination.
- What going does Ihtimal (IRE) prefer?
- Ihtimal (IRE) has the best record on good to firm going: 1 win from 6 starts (16.7%). Only going bands with at least three archived starts are read, so this is a direction rather than a settled preference.
- What is Ihtimal (IRE)'s official rating?
- The most recent official rating on record is 110, from the run on 6 June 2014. That is also the highest on record.
- What is Ihtimal (IRE)'s sire's record?
- Shamardal (USA)'s progeny in our archive have won 14.8% of 10,411 runs since Jan 2008 (1,008 horses), Flat and jumps together. Weakest on soft going: 11.7% from 1,287. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 9.3% from 475.
- Who are Ihtimal (IRE)'s siblings?
- Out of Eastern Joy (GB), Ihtimal (IRE) has 7 other produce in our archive, 4 of them winners. Most wins: Always Smile (IRE) (4). Highest grade won: Group 1 (Thunder Snow (IRE)). The wins came over 6f–1m½f. As at Oct 2026.